Hog herd expands slightly more than expected

USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report estimated the June 1 U.S. hog herd at 74.486 million head, up 935,000 head (1.3%) from year-ago and 347,000 head than the average pre-report estimate implied. The breeding herd declined 198,000 head (3.2%) to 6.008 million head, but the market hog inventory increased 1.134 million head (1.7%) to 68.479 million head.

The spring pig crop increased 607,000 head (1.8%) from last year to 34.021 million head, driven by a 1.8% jump in the number of pigs per litter, which were a record at 11.56.

Producers indicated they would throw the brakes on expansion, as summer and fall farrowing intentions are down 2.5% and 0.6%, respectively. However, if litter size continues to run at a record clip as it has for more than a year, it would likely more than offset the smaller breeding herd and reduced farrowing intentions.

The data implies slaughter will run around 2% above year-ago through summer and then slightly more than 1% higher through the fourth quarter and early 2025.

USDA revised both the March 1, 2024, U.S. hog herd and market hog numbers down 250,000 head to 74.321 million and 68.306 million head, respectively. The bulk of the reduction came out the 180-pound plus category, which was cut 230,000 to 12.440 million. The Dec. 1 hog herd and market hog totals were also lowered 355,000 head each to 75.461 million and 69.463 million head, respectively, with the cuts coming out of the two light weight categories.

The report data was negative compared to pre-report expectations, especially the market hog inventories. That will likely pressure lean hog futures, though futures have been beaten down, so some (most) of that could already be factored into the market.