Gasoline fuels consumer price rise in August.

Despite the stronger consumer inflation data, Fed fund futures reflect increased odds the Fed will embark on an extended pause for interest rates.

Inflation Money Arrows
Inflation Money Arrows
(MGN online)

The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.6% last month, the largest monthly gain since June 2022, and rose 3.7% from year-ago. Gasoline was the largest contributor to the monthly increase, accounting for over half of the rise. Gasoline prices surged 10.6% on the monthly basis, though they were still down 3.3% from last year. Food prices rose 0.2% from the previous month and were up 4.3% from last year. Excluding food and energy costs, the so-called core CPI increased 0.3% on a monthly basis and 4.3% annually.

Food at home (grocery) prices firmed 0.2% in August, which was down from a 0.3% rise in July, though that equated to a 3.0% annual increase. Food away from home (restaurant) prices rose 0.3% last month, up from a 0.2% increase in July, and topped year-ago by 6.5%.

Despite the stronger consumer inflation data, Fed fund futures reflect increased odds the Fed will embark on an extended pause for interest rates. Prices now imply around a 60% chance the Fed will keep interest rates at the current range through year-end.

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