USDA’s initial survey-based corn and soybean crop estimates in the Aug. 11 Crop Production Report will be based mostly on farmer surveys and satellite imagery. The first cotton crop estimate will include objective yield data from southern Texas. Any changes to the U.S. wheat crop estimates this month are typically minor. USDA will also update its U.S. and global balance sheets. The following estimates are from Reuters; Bloomberg for cotton.
Expectations for U.S. Corn, Soybean and Cotton Production | ||
Corn | ||
Production | Yield | |
Average est. | 15.135 | 175.5 |
Range | 14.885 – 15.361 | 172.4 – 178.0 |
USDA July proj. | 15.320 | 177.5 |
Soybeans | ||
| Production | Yield |
Average est. | 4.246 | 51.3 |
Range | 4.173 - 4.300 | 50.5 – 52.0 |
USDA July proj. | 4.300 | 52.0 |
Cotton | ||
Production | Yield | |
Average est. | 15.78 | NA |
Range | 15.25 – 16.30 | NA |
USDA July proj. | 16.50 | 831 |
Expectations for U.S. Wheat Production | |
All wheat – billion bu. | |
Average est. | 1.739 |
Range | 1.710 – 1.775 |
USDA July | 1.739 |
USDA 2022 | 1.650 |
| |
Winter wheat – billion bu. | |
Average est. | 1.209 |
Range | 1.196 – 1.226 |
USDA July | 1.206 |
USDA 2022 | 1.104 |
| |
HRW wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 578 |
Range | 570 – 585 |
USDA July | 577 |
USDA 2022 | 531 |
| |
SRW wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 425 |
Range | 420 – 435 |
USDA July | 422 |
USDA 2022 | 337 |
| |
White winter wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 206 |
Range | 200 – 214 |
USDA July | 207 |
USDA 2022 | 236 |
| |
Other spring wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 477 |
Range | 456 – 495 |
USDA July | 479 |
USDA 2022 | 482 |
| |
Durum wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 55 |
Range | 54 – 58 |
USDA July | 54 |
USDA 2022 | 64 |
| |
Expectations for U.S. Carryover | ||
Corn – billion bushels |
| |
2022-23 | 2023-24 | |
Average est. | 1.410 | 2.168 |
Range | 1.277 – 1.457 | 1.961 – 2.358 |
USDA July | 1.402 | 2.262 |
| ||
Soybeans – million bushels |
| |
2022-23 | 2023-24 | |
Average est. | 251 | 267 |
Range | 220 – 276 | 191 – 360 |
USDA July | 255 | 300 |
|
| |
Wheat – million bushels |
| |
2022-23 | 2023-24 | |
Average est. | NA | 598 |
Range | NA – NA | 560 – 635 |
USDA July | 580 | 592 |
|
| |
Cotton – million bales |
| |
2022-23 | 2023-24 | |
Average est. | NA | 3.40 |
Range | NA | 2.64 – 3.75 |
USDA July | 3.25 | 3.80 |
Expectations for Global Carryover | ||
Corn – MMT | ||
| 2022-23 | 2023-24 |
Average est. | 296.80 | 313.83 |
Range | 296.00 – 299.92 | 310.00 – 322.30 |
USDA July | 296.30 | 314.12 |
| ||
Soybeans – MMT | ||
| 2022-23 | 2023-24 |
Average est. | 102.74 | 120.04 |
Range | 101.75 – 103.11 | 118.00 – 122.60 |
USDA July | 102.90 | 120.98 |
| ||
Wheat – MMT | ||
| 2022-23 | 2023-24 |
Average est. | 269.25 | 265.92 |
Range | 268.60 – 270.46 | 264.00 – 267.30 |
USDA July | 269.31 | 266.53 |
| ||
Cotton – million bales | ||
| 2022-23 | 2023-24 |
Average est. | NA | 93.76 |
Range | NA | 91.50 – 94.60 |
USDA July | 93.95 | 94.52 |