Good morning!
Soybeans firmer, wheat weaker and corn near unchanged... Soybean futures have firmed and are trading near session highs this morning, while wheat is lower and corn is pivoting around unchanged. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading fractionally on either side of unchanged, soybeans are 4 to 6 cents higher, winter wheat markets are 4 to 6 cents lower and spring wheat is fractionally higher to 2 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is up near 200 points and front-month crude oil futures are around 75 cents higher.
USDA’s initial look at 2025-26... Based on the February WASDE Report, USDA projects the following:
- Corn: Planted acreage of 94.0 million, with production of 15.585 billion bushels. Ending stocks: 1.965 billion bushels. Average cash price: $4.20.
- Soybeans: Planted acreage of 84.0 million, with production of 4.370 billion bushels. Ending stocks: 320 billion bushels. Average cash price: $10.00.
- Wheat: Planted acreage of 47.0 million, with production of 1.926 billion bushels. Ending stocks: 826 million bushels. Average cash price: $5.50.
- Cotton: Planted acreage of 10.0 million, with production of 14.6 million bales. Ending stocks: 4.8 million bales. Average cash price: 65.0 cents.
Click here to view more details on the initial 2025-26 balance sheets for the above crops, along with the outlooks for livestock, dairy, poultry and eggs.
Weekly Export Sales Report out this morning... For the week ended Feb. 20, traders expect:
| 2024-25 expectations (in MT) | Last week (in MT) | |
| Corn | 900,000-1,650,000 | 1,453,810 |
| Wheat | 300,000-600,000 | 532,674 |
| Soybeans | 200,000-600,000 | 480,278 |
| Soymeal | 200,000-500,000 | 316,907 |
| Soyoil | 0-25,000 | 19,408 |
IKAR cuts Russian wheat export forecast... IKAR consultancy cut its Russian wheat export forecast for 2024-25 by 500,000 MT to 42.5 MMT, warning about the potential impact of the ruble’s rally on grain exporters’ margins. The Russian currency has gained about 23% against the dollar and 13% against the yuan this year. In 2023-24, IKAR estimated Russia exported a record 53 MMT of wheat, while USDA pegged the country’s exports at 55.5 MMT.
Ukrainian farmers likely to favor corn over oilseed crops... Ukrainian farmers are likely to cut soybean plantings 10% to 15% and sunflower acres by 5% this year in favor of corn, first deputy farm minister Taras Vysotskiy told Reuters. Due to drought, Ukraine may also cut its sugar beet plantings by 9%, according to the head of the sugar union. Vysotskiy also said the country’s winter crops were mostly in good condition despite a spell of sub-zero temperatures this month as there was plenty of snow cover.
India braces for scorching March... India is poised to enter its summer season with one of the warmest Marchs on record. Above-average temperatures next month will threaten to cut yields of the maturing wheat crop, two weather bureau sources told Reuters. “March is going to be unusually hot this year. Both the maximum and minimum temperatures will remain above normal for most of the month,” said a senior official at the India Meteorological Department. The state weather center is expected to release its official forecast for March on Friday. India’s wheat stocks have tightened and prices jumped to a record high this month amid the dwindling supplies, prompting speculation authorities could lower or remove the 40% import tax. Rice stocks have also tightened.
Southwest Airlines pulls back on SAF, climate initiatives... Southwest Airlines is cutting jobs in its sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) operations and working to sell a renewables company, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg, an abrupt pullback after the carrier spent the past year investing in climate-focused initiatives. Southwest last week reportedly laid off seven of 10 employees on two key teams that work to reduce its climate pollution and increase its use of SAF. The airline is also eliminating a newly created team that makes investments in renewable fuel startups. That team is being given a couple of months to help unload SAFFiRE Renewables, a company that Southwest acquired just 11 months ago, the sources said. Southwest’s reduction of its sustainability teams comes as the aviation industry struggles to make headway on climate commitments.
China SAF plants push back start-up amid lack of policy... Several Chinese builders of SAF plants are postponing planned startups as a lack of government policy guidance restrains them from marketing the fuel domestically or exporting it. Reuters reported last May that companies were investing more than $1 billion to build China’s first plants to turn used cooking oil into SAF for export and for domestic demand once Beijing requires its use to cut emissions. However, Beijing has yet to announce the mandatory use of the lower-carbon fuel. Privately led Tianzhou New Energy and Jinshang Environmental Protection Tech, which are each building SAF plants in southwestern Sichuan province, have pushed back target dates for first production, company executives said.
China encourages banks to extend more financial support to several industrial sectors... China’s financial regulator encouraged banks and insurers to enhance medium-to-long-term lending support for technology innovation and equipment upgrades in sectors including steel, nonferrous metals and petrochemicals. Banks and insurers should focus on the green transition in traditional industry to meet financing needs for the low-carbon transformation of high-energy-consuming and high-emission industries, it added.
Euro zone economic sentiment reaches five-month high... The euro zone’s economic sentiment indicator increased to 96.3 in February, the highest level in five months, compared to an upwardly revised reading of 95.3 in January. Pessimism softened for industrial goods producers and consumers, while confidence declined for service providers and attitudes for retailers were unchanged.
Slow developing cash cattle negotiations... Packers have been slow to establish cash cattle bids. The few bids that have surfaced are much lower than last week and far below feedlots’ asking prices – as packers continue to work with highly negative margins. It appears active cash trade won’t be seen until sometime Friday and negotiated sales are likely to be low again this week.
Cash hog index, pork cutout rise... The CME lean hog index is up 2 cents to $89.49 as of Feb. 25, halting a three-day slide. The pork cutout firmed $1.01 on Wednesday, driven by a $10.30 jump in primal bellies.
Overnight demand news... South Korea purchased 133,000 MT of corn that can be sourced from the U.S., South America or South Africa and tendered to buy up to another 140,000 MT of corn from the same sources. Tunisia tendered to buy 25,000 MT of optional origin soft milling wheat. Jordan tendered to buy up to 120,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- Ag Outlook Forum — USDA
- 7:30 a.m. Weekly Export Sales — FAS
- 8:00 a.m. Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Agricultural Exchange Rate Data Set — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Slaughter Weekly — NASS