Good morning!
Grains mostly weaker to open the week... Corn, soybeans and wheat faced pressure in most contracts during the overnight session. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybeans are a penny lower to 2 cents higher and wheat futures are 4 to 9 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is around 650 points lower and front-month crude oil futures are around 85 cents higher.
Trump’s tariffs flip flops keep markets on edge... President Donald Trump pledged he will still apply tariffs to phones, computers and popular consumer electronics, downplaying an exemption as a procedural step in his overall push to remake U.S. trade. The late-Friday reprieve — exempting a range of popular electronics from 125% tariffs on China and a 10% flat rate around the globe — is temporary and a part of the longstanding plan to apply a different, specific levy to the sector. The White House released a corresponding memo indicating the exemptions also extend to changes in small-parcel shipping duties. Trump had moved to end the so-called “de minimis” exemption. China’s government said the decision to exempt certain consumer electronics from its so-called reciprocal tariffs is a small step toward rectifying its wrongdoings and urged Washington to do more to revoke the levies.
WSJ: Trump’s tariff stance may not hold up to court challenge... In a commentary the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) wrote: “Democrat-led states would have a strong legal argument that Mr. Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, as well as earlier ones on China, Mexico and Canada, exceed a president’s powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, or IEEPA. The law allows presidents to impose sanctions on foreign adversaries during national emergencies, but makes no mention of tariffs.”
China soybean imports plunge to 17-year low in March... China imported 3.5 MMT of soybeans in March, down 36.8% from year-ago and the lowest total for the month since 2008, amid Brazilian soybean harvest delays and as processors shied away from U.S. shipments. For the first three months of this year, Chinese soybean imports totaled 17.11 MMT, down 7.9% from the same period last year.
China’s exports jump to a five-month high in March... China’s exports surged in March after factories rushed out shipments before the latest U.S. tariffs took effect. Exports jumped 12.4% from year-ago to $313.9 billion, the highest since October. China’s imports dropped 4.3% to $211.3 billion, the second straight month of contraction due to continued weakness in domestic demand ahead of U.S. tariffs. That left China with a surplus of $102.64 billion. The trade surplus with the U.S. stood at $27.58 billion in March. For the first quarter of the year, China posted a $273 billion surplus, as exports rose 5.8% and imports fell 7.0%. During the first three months of this year, the trade surplus with the U.S. reached $76.65 billion, as exports advanced 4.5% while imports declined 1.4%.
Cold weather delays Ukraine’s spring planting... Snow across most Ukrainian regions and unusually cold weather have delayed the spring planting, with seedings lagging behind last year’s pace, state-run Ukrinform news agency said. “April’s cold weather has affected the sowing season – it has actually stopped for a week. Compared to last year, 200,000 hectares less land has been sown so far,” Ukrinform quoted the first deputy farm minister Taras Vysotskiy as saying. However, he said the delay was “not critical.” Ukrainian ag ministry data showed farmers had sown 1.25 million hectares of spring crops as of April 11, including 612,200 hectares of spring barley, 141,100 hectares of spring wheat, 182,800 hectares of peas and 106,100 hectares of oats.
APK-Inform expects bigger Ukraine corn crop, grain exports in 2025-26... Analyst APK-Inform said Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest could increase by 8% to 57.5 MMT thanks to a larger corn crop of 29.2 MMT, 18% more than in 2024. The consultancy said Ukraine can also harvest 21.5 MMT of wheat and 5.3 MMT of barley. APK-Inform said Ukrainian grain exports could increase by 11% to 42.6 MMT in 2025-26, including 24.5 MMT of corn and 15 MMT of wheat.
The week ahead in Washington... Focus in Washington will remain on the ever-changing tariffs policy. Congress is on its two-week Easter and Passover recess. Before leaving Washington, the Senate and then the House completed work on the budget resolution. That was a necessary step for the coming reconciliation measure dealing with tax cuts, defense and energy spending, border security and perhaps some key new farm bill provisions involving reference price increases and positive changes for crop insurance. The economic focus this week will be a host of speeches by Fed officials, with particular attention on comments pertaining to inflation and tariffs policy. Key agricultural data includes USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report on Thursday afternoon. Financial and ag markets are closed for Good Friday, while U.S. government offices will be open that day.
China offers banks extra gold import quotas... The People’s Bank of China has allocated fresh gold import quotas for some commercial banks, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg, as Beijing responds to strong safe-haven demand from institutional and retail investors in the face of an escalating trade war. The decision to issue the additional quota is part of the central bank’s routine functions and follows requests from commercial banks, the people said.
China’s meat imports rise in March... China imported 550,000 MT of meat during March, up 14.2% from February. Through the first three months of this year, China imported 1.65 MMT of meat, down 2.0% from the same period last year.
Bearish cash cattle expectations... Cash cattle prices dropped sharply last week as packers restricted bids amid highly negative cutting margins. With USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report scheduled for Thursday afternoon and markets closed on Friday, packers are expected to remain cautious in their pursuit of cash cattle again this week.
Cash hog index extends downturn, pork cutout rebounds... The CME lean hog index is down another 81 cents to $86.86 as of April 10. The pork cutout firmed $2.26 to $91.96 on Friday, fueled by strong gains in bellies, butts, loins and ribs.
Weekend demand news... Exporters reported no tenders or sales.
Today’s reports
- 10:00 a.m. Weekly Export Inspections — AMS
- 1:00 p.m. Dairy Monthly Tables — ERS
- 1:00 pm Feed Grains Database — ERS
- 2:00 pm Cotton and Wool Outlook: April 2025 — ERS
- 2:00 pm Feed Outlook: April 2025 — ERS
- 2:00 pm Oil Crops Outlook: April 2025 — ERS
- 2:00 pm Rice Outlook: April 2025 — ERS
- 2:00 pm Wheat Outlook: April 2025 — ERS
- 2:00 pm Turkey Hatchery — NASS
- 3:00 pm Crop Progress — NASS