Good morning!
Grains weaker overnight as trade uncertainties hang over markets... Corn, soybeans and wheat mildly favored the downside during overnight trade. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 2 to 6 cents lower, soybeans are steady to a penny lower and wheat futures are 1 to 4 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is down more than 200 points and front-month crude oil futures are around 65 cents higher. Gold jumped to a record high above $3,000.00 overnight.
Schumer retreats on shutdown threat... Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has dropped his threat to block a Republican stopgap spending bill, allowing the government to avoid a shutdown. Despite Democratic demands for restraints on Elon Musk’s cost-cutting measures, Schumer acknowledged a shutdown would be a worse outcome. While progressives pushed for a showdown to counter President Donald Trump and Musk’s efforts to shrink federal agencies, moderates feared backlash from a government shutdown. In the Senate, 60 votes are needed to pass the GOP continuing resolution (CR) measure. A vote is scheduled for early this afternoon.
Senate faces deadline as ag research funding takes a hit... The CR measure likely to be passed by the Senate includes significant cuts to USDA’s research and inspection arms. One key provision eliminates funding for the Agricultural Research Service’s facilities account, raising concerns from both parties over maintenance backlogs at research centers. The bill does boost nutrition funding for women and infants by $567 million, but lawmakers warn that cuts to agriculture research and highly pathogenic avian influenza response programs could have long-term consequences.
China trade uncertainty worries U.S. meat industry... Scores of U.S. meat, poultry and dairy facilities are facing potential export disruptions as their registrations with China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC) are set to lapse on March 16, with more expirations in April. The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) warned that most affected registrations remain unrenewed, despite USDA and FDA requests. While China has continued clearing shipments from lapsed facilities, concerns persist over Beijing’s slow renewal process. A U.S. ag attaché reported China’s non-implementation of key trade agreements is constraining U.S. beef and pork access. If unresolved, USMEF estimates losses of up to $4.125 billion in beef exports and $1.3 billion in pork.
China faces rapeseed meal shortage after 100% tariff on Canada... China is set to experience a rapeseed meal shortage by the third quarter following its decision to impose a 100% tariff on imports from top supplier Canada, Reuters reports. Futures for the commodity have already surged over 8% in response. While China is exploring alternative suppliers like India and Russia, limited global availability makes full replacement unlikely. The shortage could push feed producers to rely more on domestic rapeseed meal or switch to soybean meal.
Rains aid Argentine crops... Recent heavy rains across much of Argentina’s main crop areas has boosted production potential, though northern locations remain in need of moisture, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. It forecasts soybean production at 49.6 MMT and the corn crop at 49 MMT.
Brazil officially eliminates import tax on certain food items... Brazil’s trade chamber has unanimously voted to eliminate import taxes on certain products to curb food inflation, Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said. The tax elimination is an emergency measure that goes into effect today for an undetermined amount of time for corn, boneless beef products, roasted coffee, coffee beans, olive oil, sugar, cookies, pasta and sardines.
Argentine soy crush workers lift strike... Argentina’s oilseed workers lifted a strike Thursday afternoon that had paralyzed soy processing plants for a day, their union said, after the government called to restart talks with biodiesel firm Explora. A meeting between union officials and Explora is scheduled for next Monday afternoon. SOEA and the Federacion Aceitera complied with the decision in calling off the previously planned strike, but they said Explora was out of compliance in laying off workers and allowing the government to repress a protest.
French wheat crop ratings unchanged... France’s ag ministry kept its soft wheat ratings at 74% good/excellent as of March 10, remaining the second lowest behind last year for the past five years. The country’s wheat crop has stabilized after conditions deteriorated from December to February, but some concerns remain.
India’s export rice prices fall to 21-month low... India’s rice export prices continued to drop amid subdued demand and stiff competition from other exporting countries. India’s 5% broken parboiled variety was quoted at $403.00 to $410.00 per metric ton, down $5.00 to $6.00 from last week and the lowest in 21 months.
China’s new bank lending sharply declines in February... Chinese banks extended 1.01 trillion yuan ($139.62 billion) in new yuan loans in February, well below a record 5.130 trillion yuan in January and the lowest for the month since 2020. Credit demand slowed significantly following a record start to the year, as the initial boost and seasonal front-loading of loans by banks tapered. Outstanding yuan loans rose 7.3% in February from a year earlier, down from the 7.5% pace in January and hitting a record low. Total social financing, which is a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy as it includes off-balance sheet forms of financing such as initial public offerings, loans from trust companies and bond sales, fell to 2.290 trillion yuan from a record 7.060 trillion yuan in January.
China’s FDI remains weak... Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China dropped 20.4% from year-ago in the first two months of 2025, faster than the 19.9% decline seen during the same period last year. China’s FDI has declined from year-earlier levels since June 2023.
Cotton AWP rises, removing LDP... The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton rose to 53.76 cents per pound, effective March 14, up from 51.88 cents per pound the prior week. The rise in the AWP removes what had been a 12 cent LDP available for the week ended March 13, the first LDP since October 2020.
Still waiting on active cash cattle trade... Cash cattle negotiations remained at a standstill on Thursday, with feedlots seeking higher prices and packers not willing to bid up for supplies given poor margins. If the gridlock continues, this week’s negotiated cash cattle volume will be light.
Pork cutout firms... The pork cutout rose $2.71 to $97.29 on Thursday, fueled by a $10.84 increase in volatile belly prices. While wholesale prices firmed, movement slowed to 214.6 loads.
Overnight demand news... South Korea purchased 139,000 MT of corn – 70,0000 MT expected to be sourced from the U.S., South America or South Africa and 69,000 MT to be sourced from South America or South Africa.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 2:00 p.m. Honey — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Hop Stocks — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Peanut Prices — NASS
- 2:30 p.m. Commitments of Traders — CFTC