Good morning!
Grains firmer to open the week... Corn and soybeans traded higher throughout the overnight session, while wheat futures have firmed this morning. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 3 cents higher, soybeans are 2 to 3 cents higher and wheat is unchanged to 2 cents higher. Risk aversion is heightened in other markets to open the week. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to sharply lower openings, while gold surged to a record high overnight and the U.S. dollar is down more than 1,100 points this morning.
China warns countries against striking trade deals with U.S. at its expense... China accused Washington of abusing tariffs and warned countries against striking a broader economic deal with the U.S. at its expense, ratcheting up its rhetoric in an escalating trade war between the two countries. Beijing will firmly oppose any party striking a deal at China’s expense and “will take countermeasures in a resolute and reciprocal manner,” its commerce ministry said. Meanwhile, China is shifting away from traditional tariffs and increasingly targeting U.S. firms with non-tariff trade weapons, analysts say, signaling a more strategic and punitive phase in the ongoing economic conflict. Beijing is also backing efforts by major Chinese e-commerce firms like Alibaba and JD.com to pivot exporters toward domestic markets, aiming to mitigate economic damage from U.S. tariffs and boost internal demand. While the shift aligns with broader state efforts to stimulate consumption after years of weak growth, analysts warn exporters may struggle to appeal to more cost-conscious Chinese consumers.
Japan considering soybean, rice concessions in U.S. tariff talks... Japan is considering increasing its soybean and rice imports as a concession in trade negotiations with the U.S. over President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, Japan’s Yomiuri daily reported. In the first round of bilateral talks last Wednesday, U.S. negotiators brought up automobiles and rice as areas where they said Tokyo puts up market barriers, and they demanded that Japan import more meat, fish products and potatoes, the newspaper said.
Trump administration details on plans to levy Chinese vessels... The Trump administration introduced new port fees targeting Chinese-built and Chinese-operated ships as part of a broader effort to promote domestic shipbuilding and reduce China’s dominance in global maritime trade. The fees are a response to findings that China leverages unfair trade practices to dominate the shipping and shipbuilding sectors. The U.S. Trade Representative proposal is a departure from its initial iteration, which suggested charging fees of at least $1 million per ship each time it called at a U.S. port. The proposal now recommends that fees be levied based on tonnage. Another major deviation is that the USTR is now proposing that fees be charged per voyage, instead of per port call. Full details.
U.S, India reach terms of reference for proposed trade accord... India and the U.S. have finalized terms of reference for a proposed bilateral trade agreement covering 19 chapters on issues like tariffs, goods, non-tariff barriers and customs facilitation, official sources said. A three-day round of talks will begin in Washington on Wednesday to resolve pending issues during President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause. India’s chief negotiator, Additional Secretary in the Department of Commerce Rajesh Agrawal, will lead the team for the first in-person talks between the two countries. Vice President JD Vance will meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi today. Of note: The U.S. is looking at duty concessions in sectors like certain industrial goods, automobiles (electric vehicles particularly), wines, petrochemical products, dairy and agricultural items such as apples, tree nuts and alfalfa hay; India may look at duty cuts for labor-intensive sectors like apparels, textiles, gems and jewelry, leather, plastics, chemicals, oil seeds, shrimp and horticulture products.
The week ahead in Washington... Trade talks continue between the U.S. and some key countries. Congress is on recess this week. Meanwhile, congressional staff are preparing for market reconciliation work when lawmakers return. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank kick off their week-long spring meetings in Washington. IMF will issue its latest World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report on Tuesday. Fed officials will speak throughout the week with a focus on comments on economic impacts from tariffs. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on Wednesday will offer anecdotal insight into economic conditions from its 12 districts. USDA will release its updated food price outlook on Friday, with a particular focus remaining on egg prices.
Wet week ahead with fieldwork delays likely... An active weather pattern will be seen across much of the central U.S., with all major crop areas likely to be impacted during the next 10 days. The Ohio, Tennessee and lower Mississippi river basins will continue to deal with saturated fields and periodic flooding. Dry western HRW areas of the Plains are forecast to receive needed rains from midweek into next week.
China’s 2025 grain output to reach record... China’s grain production is expected to reach a record 709 MMT this year, with soybeans leading the growth, state-run Xinhua news reported. Soybean output is forecast to rise 2.5% to 21.17 MMT this year, while rice, wheat and corn are likely to grow 0.5%, 0.9% and 0.2%, respectively, Xinhua said. China’s imports of major agricultural commodities are on a declining trend due to increased domestic production and slowing consumption, Xinhua said. China’s domestic grain consumption is expected to rise slightly, while demand for beef, lamb and dairy products is projected to decline modestly.
China’s U.S. soybean imports rise in March... China imported 2.44 MMT of soybeans from the U.S. in March, up 12% from last year. Imports from Brazil dropped 69% to 950,000 MT last month. For the first quarter of 2025, China’s soybean shipments from the U.S. rose 62% from a year earlier to 11.6 MMT, while arrivals from Brazil fell 55% to 4.5 MMT. However, Brazil is expected to dominate Chinese soybean imports in the coming months. Analysts forecast China’s soybean imports could reach a record 31.3 MMT in April-June, driven by the arrival of new-crop Brazilian soybeans.
Thai Q1 rice exports plunge... Thailand’s rice exports fell 30% annually in the first quarter of this year to 2.1 MMT, the Thai Rice Exporters Association said, due to countries delaying buying decisions and India resuming rice exports. Full-year exports could fall below the forecast of 7.5 MMT. However, exporters saw more U.S. orders after a 90-day pause on the imposition of steep new tariffs.
Foreign demand for U.S. Treasury bills surges post-election, driven by Asia... Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury bills have surged by nearly $146 billion since the U.S. presidential election last fall, reaching $1.3 trillion as of February, according to new Treasury data. Asian nations have led the increase, with regional holdings jumping from $324 billion to $454 billion in just four months. China’s holdings of short-term U.S. debt have spiked 85%, climbing to $77 billion from last October. The sharp rise in short-term, dollar-denominated debt points to a growing preference for liquidity and safety amid ongoing global economic and political uncertainty. Despite geopolitical tensions, global investors — particularly in Asia — are still seeking the stability of U.S. Treasury markets.
China keeps lending rates steady... The People’s Bank of China left its key lending rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive month in April as it waits to assess the evolving impact of U.S. trade disputes before introducing further stimulus. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR), a benchmark for most corporate and household loans, was maintained at 3.1%, while the five-year LPR, a reference for property mortgages, remained at 3.6%. Both rates are at record lows.
China’s pork import decline in March... China imported 90,000 MT of pork during March, down 1.2% from year-ago. For the first three months of the year, China imported 280,000 MT of pork, up 7.5% from the same period last year.
Neutral Cattle on Feed Report... USDA estimated there were 11.638 million head of cattle in large feedlots (1,000-plus head) as of April 1, down 188,000 head (1.6%) from year-ago. Placements rose 5.1% during March, while marketings increased 1.1%. All three were close to the average pre-report estimates and won’t have much if any market impact, especially after an extended weekend. Click here for full details.
Cash hog index firms... The CME lean hog index is up 25 cents to $85.46 as of April 17, the second straight daily gain following a string of recent losses. May hogs finished last Thursday $4.94 above today’s cash quote, while June hogs held a $12.565 premium.
Holiday weekend demand news... Exporters reported no tenders or sales.
Today’s reports
- 10:00 a.m. Weekly Export Inspections — AMS
- 1:00 p.m. Raw-Fiber Equivalents of U.S. Textile Trade Data — ERS
- 1:00 p.m. U.S. Bioenergy Statistics — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Chickens and Eggs — NASS
- 3:00 p.m. Crop Progress — NASS