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Grains weaker early this morning... Corn, soybeans and wheat initially pushed higher in an extension of corrective gains the two previous days during the overnight session but have weakened this morning. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans are mostly a penny lower and wheat futures are 7 to 9 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is down around 250 points and front-month crude oil futures are about 90 cents higher.
Trump warns of potential tariff hikes on Canada and Mexico... President Donald Trump in an interview Friday suggested that tariffs on Mexico and Canada could rise above the stated 25%. While he paused tariffs until April 2 for goods under the USMCA agreement, Trump hinted that higher tariffs might still come, stating, “The tariffs could go up as time goes by.”
Canadian dairy policy, fentanyl sparks tense Trump/Trudeau call... Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau described his 50-minute phone call with President Trump as “colorful” and “heated.” A senior official revealed that Trump used profanity while discussing dairy products and became animated over fentanyl. Despite the heated exchanges, the call ended on a somewhat friendly note, with both leaders agreeing to explore potential tariff exemptions for U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)-compliant products. As the 2026 USMCA review approaches, the U.S. is expected to push for further reforms to secure better market access for American dairy producers, with calls for swift diplomatic resolutions to avoid prolonged economic impacts.
U.S. soyoil exports surge in January... U.S. soyoil exports surged to 212,714 MT in January, according to Census Bureau data, the most for any month since January 2010 and the fourth largest tally for any month on record. Global importers have increasing turned to soyoil given its competitive price advantage over rival vegoils, especially palm oil.
China’s soybean imports rise to start 2025... China imported 13.61 MMT of soybeans during the first two months of this year, up 570,000 MT (4.4%) from the same period last year, as importers brought in U.S. supplies before an anticipated trade disruption. Analysts expect March imports will be less than 6 MMT, despite tightening stocks held by crushers, given trade tensions with the U.S. and delays in Brazilian shipments. On March 10, China will impose an additional 10% tariff on U.S. soybeans.
China’s trade data reflects trade war concerns... China’s exports grew 2.3% from year-ago to $540 billion in January-February, slowing sharply from a 10.7% surge in December but a record for the two-month period. Imports unexpectedly fell 8.4% to $369.4 billion, down sharply from the 1.0% rise in December. That was the sharpest drop since July 2023 due to declining domestic demand and impacts of the trade war. As a result, China’s trade surplus surged to $170.52 billion. The trade surplus with the U.S. reached $49.05 billion, with exports and imports rising 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively.
U.S. to levy fees on China-linked ships, push allies to follow suit... The U.S. is planning to charge fees for docking at U.S. ports on any ship that is part of a fleet that includes Chinese-built or Chinese-flagged vessels and will push allies to act similarly or face retaliation, a draft executive order stated. The draft executive order, dated Feb. 27 and reviewed by Reuters, proposes fees should be imposed on any vessel that enters a U.S. port, “regardless of where it was built or flagged, if that vessel is part of a fleet that includes vessels built or flagged in the PRC (People’s Republic of China).” The order aims to resuscitate domestic shipbuilding and weaken China’s grip on the global shipping industry. Chinese shipbuilders account for more than 50% of all merchant vessel cargo capacity produced globally each year, up from just 5% in 1999, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Brazil to eliminate import taxes to tackle food prices... Brazil’s government will eliminate import taxes on products including sugar, coffee, corn and meat, as part of a set of measures aimed at reducing food prices, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin announced. Biscuits, pasta, olive oil, sunflower oil and sardines also will be exempted from import duties, said Alckmin. The import quota for olive oil will be raised to 150,000 MT. Currently, Brazil charges a 9% import tax for coffee and 7.2% for corn, while beef and sugar import duties can be as high as 10.8% and 14%, respectively. The measures to cut import rates still need to be approved by government trade body CAMEX. Alckmin said the government did not discuss measures to raise export taxes.
Mild uptick in jobs growth expected for February... Economists polled by Reuters expect the Labor Department to report non-farm payrolls increased 160,000 in February, which would be up from 143,000 jobs added the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.0%.
Global food prices rise in February... The UN Food and Agriculture Organization global food price index rose 1.6% in February and was 8.2% above year-ago. While meat prices remained stable, all other price indices rose during February, with the most significant increases recorded for sugar, dairy and vegoils. Compared to year-ago, prices rose 4.9% for meat, 23.2% for dairy and 29.0% for vegoils, while values fell 1.1% for cereal grains and 15.8% for sugar.
French wheat crop ratings improve but still low... As of March 3, France’s ag ministry rated the country’s winter wheat crop as 74% good/excellent, up one percentage point from the previous week. However, that was the second lowest in the last five years ahead of only 68% on this date last year. Wheat conditions deteriorated between December and February, with a wet January keeping some fields waterlogged. Drier conditions are expected in France’s key grain-growing regions the next couple of weeks but there is concern the wheat crop has already suffered serious damage.
Vietnam looking to boost rice exports amid oversupply... The Vietnamese government has told the trade ministry to seek to boost rice exports to the U.S., China, the EU and Japan as the country looks to manage an oversupply of the grain, according to a government document reviewed by Reuters. The government has also told the central bank to extend loans to firms so they can stockpile rice, according to the document which was signed this week by Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh. Vietnam, the world’s third-largest rice exporter after India and Thailand, has seen its exports fall amid rising shipments from India. Vietnam’s 5% broken rice price has plunged 19% so far this year amid weakening exports, according to the Vietnam Food Association.
China’s Jan.-Feb. meat imports slightly below year-ago... China imported 1.098 MMT of meat (including offal) during the first two months of the year, down 3,000 MT (0.2%) from last year. China doesn’t break down meat imports by category in the preliminary data, but the bulk is pork/pork products.
Light cash cattle trade... Cash cattle trade was light through Thursday, with prices generally $1.00 lower. Feedlots appear to be in no hurry to actively move cattle at lower prices after slow sales last week.
Cash hog index continues to chop... The CME lean hog index is down 2 cents to $90.18 as of March 5. The index has been chopping around the $90.00 for the past two weeks.
Overnight demand news... South Korea purchased 131,000 MT of optional origin corn. Japan purchased 94,282 MT of milling wheat via its weekly tender, including 35,882 MT U.S., 33,670 MT Canadian and 24,730 MT Australian.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 11:00 a.m. Livestock and Meat International Trade Data — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. U.S. Agricultural Trade Data Update — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Peanut Prices — NASS
- 2:30 p.m. Commitments of Traders — CFTC