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Soybeans post sharp losses overnight... Soybean futures erased Monday’s strong gains during the overnight session, while corn mildly followed to the downside and wheat was choppy. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading a penny lower, soybeans are 12 cents lower and wheat futures are a penny lower to 2 cents higher.
Cordonnier leaves U.S. yield estimates unchanged... Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his U.S. corn and soybean yield forecasts at 182.5 bu. per acre and 53 bu. per acre, respectively, though he has a neutral to lower bias as late-season dryness is not ideal for crops. Cordonnier’s production forecasts remained at 15.09 billion bu. for corn and 4.57 billion bu. for soybeans.
S&P Global forecasts bigger U.S. corn, soybean crops than USDA’s August estimates... S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts the U.S. corn crop at 15.220 billion bu. on a yield of 184 bu. per acre. The firm pegs the soybean crop at 4.612 billion bu. on a yield of 53.5 bu. per acre. USDA’s initial crop estimates in August pegged corn at 15.147 billion bu. on a yield of 183.1 bu. per acre and soybeans at 4.589 billion bu. on a yield of 53.2 bu. per acre.
Corn, soybean CCI ratings increase... USDA rated 64% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent” and 12% “poor” to “very poor.” The soybean crop was rated 65% “good” to “excellent” and 10% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop rose 1.5 points to 368.2 while the soybean rating improved 0.4 point to 362.2. Illinois and Ohio led gains for the corn crop, while Illinois paced the increase for soybeans. The increases halted a five-week slide for corn and a four-week decline for soybeans. Click here for details.
Crop Progress Report highlights… Following are highlights from USDA’s crop progress and condition update as of Sept. 8:
· Corn: 64% good/excellent (65% last week); 95% dough (94% average); 74% dented (73% average); 29% mature (24% average); 5% harvested (3% average).
· Soybeans: 65% good/excellent (65% last week); 97% setting pods (96% average); 25% dropping leaves (21% average).
· Cotton: 40% good/excellent (44% last week); 45% bolls opening (40% average); 8% harvested (6% average).
· Spring wheat: 85% harvested (83% average).
· Winter wheat: 6% planted (6% average).
Record Chinese soybean imports in August... China imported a record 12.14 MMT of soybeans in August, up 23.2% from July and 29.7% above last year. The surge was driven by ships delayed at Chinese ports being cleared to unload and buyers making preparations for a potential increase in trade tensions after the November U.S. elections. Through the first eight months of this year, China imported 70.48 MMT of soybeans, up 2.8% from the same period last year.
China’s exports jump but imports disappoint... China’s exports increased 8.7% annually in August, the most since March 2023, to a 23-month peak of $308.65 billion. It was the fifth straight month of growth in shipments amid robust foreign sales, despite growing trade tensions with the West. China’s imports rose just 0.5% from last year to $217.63 billion in August, slowing sharply from the 7.2% jump in July. That left China with a trade surplus of $91.02 billion, up from $84.65 billion in July. The trade surplus with the U.S. widened to $33.81 billion from $30.84 billion in July.
EU to trim tariffs on Tesla, some EVs from China... The European Union is preparing to make slight reductions to proposed tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China. Mlex first reported the changes on Monday, saying Tesla’s rate will drop to 7.8% from 9% initially proposed. The new highest rate for Chinese producers that failed to cooperate with the EU’s probe will be set at 35.3%, down from 36.3%, according to the news organization. These additional tariffs, on top of the existing 10% duty, are set to be voted on by EU member states before taking effect in November.
Debate night between Harris and Trump... The presidential debate in Philadelphia will be a major moment for Kamala Harris to define herself because recent polls show more voters want to know more about her position on key issues. Most already know Donald Trump. The two will likely spar over crucial issues like the economy, immigration and abortion. The debate, broadcast by ABC News and moderated by David Muir and Linsey Davis, offers both candidates a chance to sway undecided voters. Harris will seek to introduce her vision, while Trump will aim to highlight her connections to the current administration’s policies, especially on immigration. With polls showing a tight race nationally and in swing states, this debate could have a significant impact on the trajectory of the election.
Chinese meat imports remain well below year-ago levels... China imported 565,000 MT of meat products in August, up 25,000 MT (4.6%) from July but down 62,000 MT (9.9%) from last year. Through the first eight months of the year, China imported 4.40 MMT of meat products, down 710,000 MT (13.9%) from the same period last year.
Cash cattle slide continues... Cash cattle averaged $181.18 last week, down $2.63 from the previous week. That was the sixth straight weekly decline and the lowest average price since mid-February. Despite the cash weakness, cattle futures posted strong gains, finishing high-range and more than $3.00 off their intra-day lows as traders narrowed up discounts to the cash market. But traders likely need some indications of a short-term low in the cash market before they are active buyers.
Cash hog fundamentals weaken... The CME lean hog index is down 50 cents to $85.74 as of Sept. 6, the lowest since April 2. The pork cutout dropped 38 cents on Monday to $95.72. Estimated packer cutting margins stood at $25.70 per head in the black on Monday, according to HedgersEdge.com.
Overnight demand news... Exporters reported no tenders or sales.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
· No reports scheduled.