Good morning!
Quiet start to the week for grains... Grain markets traded in relatively tight ranges during the overnight session, with corn and wheat mildly weaker and soybeans mostly firmer this morning. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 4 cents lower, soybeans are unchanged to a penny higher and wheat futures are 2 to 3 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is down around 200 points while front-month crude oil futures are modestly firmer.
Rains continue across southern United States... Heavy rains are expected across the Southern Plains, with active rains though lighter amounts through the Delta, Tennessee River basin and Southeast. Drier weather is expected for the Central Plains across the lower Midwest, while the upper Midwest and Northern Plains will see rain chances throughout the week.
U.S. pushes for rare earth flow deal in London talks with China... U.S. and Chinese officials, including U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, are meeting in London today. This meeting comes as both nations work to resolve intensifying disputes over export controls and critical material flows, particularly regarding rare earth minerals and advanced technology components. The U.S. will press China to fully resume rare earth exports. Today’s session could determine whether the world’s two largest economies resume cooperation — or plunge deeper into economic fragmentation.
U.S. extends India trade mission as deal deadline nears... A U.S. trade delegation currently in India has extended its stay through Tuesday, signaling accelerating momentum in negotiations aimed at finalizing a phased trade deal before new reciprocal tariffs take effect July 9. Initially scheduled for June 5–6, the talks have reportedly gained traction, with most issues expected to be resolved within a week, according to sources familiar with the matter. The deal seeks to forestall tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump that would sharply raise duties on Indian goods. Lutnick said he’s “very optimistic” about an agreement in the near term.
Trump, South Korea’s Lee pledge rapid tariff resolution... President Donald Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung agreed to seek a prompt resolution to ongoing tariff disputes in a 20-minute phone conversation, according to South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency. The two leaders also agreed to hold a face-to-face meeting soon, with Trump extending an invitation for Lee to visit the United States. The discussion signals growing urgency to settle trade tensions that have impacted key South Korean exports, including automobiles and electronics. Lee’s office emphasized the importance of stabilizing bilateral trade relations amid broader shifts in U.S. tariff policy.
China’s soybean imports surge to record in May... China imported a record 13.92 MMT of soybeans in May, up 7.84 MMT (129%) from April and 3.7 MMT (36.2%) above last year. Customs clearance times returned to normal, while demand from crushing plants was strong. Through the first five months of this year, China imported 37.11 MMT of soybeans, down 0.7% from the same period last year.
China’s May exports, imports slow as tariffs bite... China’s exports rose 4.8% from year-ago to $316.1 billion in May, the smallest year-over-year gain in three months as shipments to the U.S. were slowed by tariffs and trade uncertainty. Imports fell 3.4% below last year to $212.9 billion, the fourth straight decrease in purchases due to subdued domestic demand and the impact of U.S. tariffs. China’s trade surplus widened to $103.22 billion from $96.18 billion in April. China’s trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed to $18 billion in May from $20.46 billion in April, as exports and imports plunged by 34.5% and 18.1%, respectively.
China’s deflationary pressures persist... China’s consumer prices dropped 0.1% from year-ago for the third straight month and the fourth consecutive month of consumer deflation amid sluggish domestic demand. Pork price growth slowed further (3.1% vs. 5.0%), with prices expected to remain volatile for the rest of the year amid marginally tightening supply and weakening consumer demand. China’s producer prices fell 3.3% annually in May. This marked the 32nd consecutive month of producer deflation and the steepest decline since July 2023, driven by rising external risks amid uncertainty over U.S. tariffs and persistently weak domestic demand.
APK-Inform cuts Ukraine’s grain production, export forecasts... Ag consultancy APK-Inform cut its 2025 Ukraine grain production forecast by 4.3% to 52.9 MMT, mostly due to lower projections for wheat and corn. The firm reduced its corn production forecast by 2.1 MMT to 24.9 MMT and trimmed wheat output by 100,000 MT to 21.7 MMT. APK-Inform lowered its 2025-26 grain export forecast by 2.4 MMT to 38.5 MMT. In 2024-25, Ukraine produced 56.2 MMT of grain and is projected to export 40 MMT.
The week ahead in Washington... This will be a key week for Senate reconciliation approach, as Senate Republicans are expected to finalize text of the bill. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins will appear Wednesday before House Ag panel. Key inflation data will be released with readings for the Consumer Price Index on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index on Thursday. USDA’s June crop reports, featuring the second winter wheat crop estimate, along with updated old-crop and new-crop balance sheets will be released on Thursday.
Missouri probes false report about screwworm... Missouri authorities are investigating a fake press release about New World screwworm, the state’s agriculture department said on Friday. On May 27, a false press release was sent to a northwest Missouri radio station about screwworm, the Missouri Department of Agriculture said. A report on the radio station’s website pressured cattle futures before being taken offline. State officials want to determine “if this was an act with malicious intent to cause panic in agricultural markets,” the department added.
China’s May meat imports unchanged from April, down from year-ago... China imported 513,000 MT of meat in May, unchanged from the previous month but down 7.9% from last year. Through the first five months of the year, China imported 2.67 MMT of meat, down 3.9% from the same period last year.
Wholesale beef potentially stalling... While cattle futures and cash cattle prices continue to rise, wholesale beef values are showing signs of stalling in the mid-$360.00 range for Choice and mid-$350.00 area for Select. Choice beef fell $1.77 to $365.08 and Select firmed 12 cents to $356.73 on Friday.
Cash hog fundamentals continue to strengthen... The CME lean hog index is up another 80 cents to $98.37 as of June 5. Pork cutout jumped $3.39 to $111.51 on Friday. Both marked for-the-move highs and are trading at the highest levels since August 2023.
Weekend demand news... Exporters reported no tenders or sales.
Today’s reports
- 10:00 a.m. Weekly Export Inspections — AMS
- 1:00 p.m. U.S. Agricultural Trade Data Update — ERS
- 3:00 p.m. Crop Progress — NASS