Good morning!
Grains mostly weaker overnight... Corn and soybeans faced light selling pressure overnight, while wheat was mostly lower. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading fractionally to a penny lower, soybeans are 2 to 3 cents lower, SRW wheat is narrowly mixed, HRW wheat is 2 to 3 cents lower and HRS wheat is around a penny lower. The U.S. dollar index is down around 235 points and front-month crude oil futures are about 45 cents higher.
Trump considers aggressive two-step tariff strategy for April 2... President Donald Trump is preparing a two-stage tariff strategy that could begin as early as April 2, according to the Financial Times (FT). The plan reportedly includes the immediate imposition of tariffs as high as 50%, particularly targeting car imports. Citing lawyers and individuals familiar with the discussions, FT reports Trump’s team is also weighing the use of Section 301 trade investigations to scrutinize foreign trading practices. In addition, they are exploring the potential use of Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which permits temporary tariffs of up to 15% in response to balance-of-payments issues.
Executives: Trump’s port fees on Chinese ships threaten U.S. maritime industry... President Donald Trump’s plan to levy fees on China-linked vessels will hurt domestic ship operators, seaports, exporters and jobs, industry executives said at U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) hearings on Monday. The Trump administration says the fees would curb China’s growing commercial and military dominance on the high seas and promote domestically built vessels. “National interest will not be served if the effort to boost American shipbuilding unintentionally destroys American-owned carriers,” said Edward Gonzalez, CEO of Florida-based Seaboard Marine, the largest U.S.-owned international ocean cargo carrier. U.S. vessel operators said the fees on Chinese-linked vessels also would push more U.S. cargo to foreign-owned ocean shipping companies that have resources to better weather the change. U.S. shipyards turn out fewer than 10 ships annually while China’s produce 1,000, speakers said. Agricultural exporters already are having trouble booking ships beyond May due to uncertainty around the USTR plan.
HRW wheat conditions generally improve in South Plains... State-level winter wheat condition ratings showed general improvement in the HRW crop over the past week. “Good” to “excellent” ratings improved one point in Kansas (49%) six points in Colorado (66%) and three points in Texas (31%). However, ratings dropped nine points in Oklahoma (37%) due to “extreme winds, lack of rainfall and wildfires” across much of the state.
Cordonnier cuts Brazilian crop production forecasts... South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian soybean and corn production forecasts 1 MMT each to 169 MMT and 122 MMT, respectively, noting dryness in far southern growing areas. For soybeans, Cordonnier says yields in Rio Grande do Sul are lower than expected. For corn, areas in need of rain to pollinate and fill properly represent about half of safrinha production – and the forecast for April through June calls for below-normal rainfall. There are also indications farmers may have switched some intended safrinha corn acres to other crops. Cordonnier maintained his Argentine production forecasts at 48 MMT for soybeans and 46 MMT for corn.
Canada challenges China’s tariffs at WTO... Canada formally requested consultations at the World Trade Organization (WTO) over China’s imposition of steep import duties on Canadian agricultural and fishery products. The tariffs, which took effect on March 20, include 100% duties on canola seed oil, oil residue cake, and peas, as well as 25% tariffs on select seafood and pork products. Canada argues these measures violate China’s WTO obligations. The move comes in retaliation to Canada’s earlier tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), steel, and aluminum. If no resolution is reached within 60 days, Canada may escalate the matter by requesting a WTO dispute panel.
EU’s WTO activity on China EVs and palm oil compliance... At the March 24 WTO dispute settlement meeting, the EU blocked China’s first request to establish a panel over tariffs on Chinese EVs, following failed consultations in December 2024. Although this initial block is allowed, China’s second request cannot be stopped. Separately, the EU committed to comply with a WTO ruling on its palm oil and biofuel policies, requesting more time and targeting Jan. 1, 2026, for full compliance — a timeline already agreed upon in a similar dispute with Malaysia, and one it now seeks to align with Indonesia as well.
Meat sales record-high as Americans embrace protein-packed diets... U.S. meat sales reached a record $104.6 billion in 2024, with volume up 2.3% from 2023, according to the 20th annual Power of Meat report released at the Annual Meat Conference. The study reveals that 98% of American households purchase meat and 73% view it as part of a healthy lifestyle, with protein being a top dietary priority. Consumers now shop for meat an average of 54 times a year, spending $16.12 per trip. Popular motivations include comfort meals, convenience and creative cooking. Food Marketing Institute’s (FMI’s) Rick Stein noted that meat is included in 90% of home-cooked dinners, while Meat Institute CEO Julie Anna Potts emphasized meat’s role as a “nutrient powerhouse” supporting both health and the U.S. farm economy. The report was conducted by 210 Analytics for FMI and the Meat Foundation, with data from Circana and sponsorship from CRYOVAC® Brand Food Packaging.
Cold Storage Report out this afternoon... USDA will detail frozen meat stocks at the end of February. The five-year average is a 10.6-million-lb. decline in beef stocks and a 17.9-million-lb. rise in pork stocks during the month.
Minnesota reports first 2025 HPAI case in dairy herd... A Stearns County dairy farm has been quarantined after testing positive for H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza HPAI, marking Minnesota’s first confirmed dairy herd infection of 2025. The case is the second for the same 620-cow operation and the first detected through the state’s new monthly milk testing program. Officials emphasized that pasteurization effectively kills the virus, ensuring the milk supply remains safe.
Cattle futures showing topping signs... Cash cattle prices surged $7.46 to a record $212.76 last week and wholesale beef prices posted strong on Monday, but live cattle futures closed lower and near session lows. After last Friday’s spike to an all-time high, futures price action suggests more long liquidation pressure is possible, despite strong cash fundamentals.
Cash hog index slips, pork cutout firms... The CME lean hog index dropped 9 cents to $88.79 as of March 21. The pork cutout firmed 51 cents to $97.37 on Monday as all cuts except hams were higher.
Overnight demand news... Japan is seeking 119,847 MT of milling wheat via its weekly tender.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 8:00 a.m. Food Price Outlook — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Cold Storage — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Poultry Slaughter — NASS