Good morning!
Heavy pressure on soybeans overnight... Soybeans faced heavy followthrough selling overnight, while corn and wheat pulled back from Monday’s gains. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading mostly 2 cents lower, soybeans are 13 to 14 cents lower and wheat futures are steady to 2 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is about $1.00 lower and front-month crude oil futures are around $1.40 lower.
Cordonnier keeps U.S. crop estimates unchanged... Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his U.S. corn crop estimate at 15.09 billion bu. on a yield of 182.5 bu. per acre. His soybean production estimate remained at 4.44 billion bu. on a yield of 51.5 bu. per acre. Cordonnier has a neutral bias toward both crops.
Corn, soybean CCI ratings slip but remain well above year-ago... USDA rated 64% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent” and 13% “poor” to “very poor.” The soybean crop was rated 64% “good” to “excellent” and 11% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop slipped 0.1 point to 365.9, while the soybean crop declined 1.6 points to 358.3. The CCI ratings are still 29.7 points (8.8%) above year-ago for corn and 26.1 points (7.8%) above for soybeans. Click here for details.
Crop Progress Report highlights… Following are highlights from USDA’s crop progress and condition update as of Oct. 6:
· Corn: 64% good/excellent (64% last week); 87% mature (81% average); 30% harvested (27% average).
· Soybeans: 63% good/excellent (64% last week); 90% dropping leaves (85% average); 47% harvested (34% average).
· Cotton: 29% good/excellent (31% last week); 82% bolls opening (80% average); 26% harvested (22% average).
· Winter wheat: 51% planted (52% average); 25% emerged (25% average).
Oil World: Indonesia B40 biodiesel plan would be ‘catastrophic’ for world market... Oil World senior analyst David Mielke said Indonesia’s plan for the widespread use of the palm-oil based B40 biodiesel from next year would be “catastrophic” for the global market, as it would involve the additional use of 1.5 MMT to 1.7 MMT of the commodity. Mielke also said global palm oil production is expected to increase by 2.3 MMT in 2024-25 compared to the previous season.
Russia strikes second grain ship in Black Sea... A Russian missile hit a Palau-flagged vessel in Ukraine’s southern port of Odesa on Monday, killing a Ukrainian national and injuring five crew membersin the second such attack in as many days, officials said. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba identified the vessel as the Optima and said it arrived in Odesa hours before the attack. The ship attacked on Sunday in the nearby port of Pivdennyi was the Saint Kitts and Nevis-flagged Paresa, which had a cargo of 6,000 MT of corn.
USDA announces $250 million in aid for distressed farm loan borrowers... The new assistance will support approximately 4,650 borrowers via automatic payments under the Inflation Reduction Act, helping to address delinquencies and ensure they can continue production. This aid follows $2.4 billion already distributed to over 43,900 farmers since August 2022. Farm Service Agency Administrator Zach Ducheneaux emphasized these payments not only address immediate financial challenges but also strengthen the farm loan system for the future.
China puts duty on EU brandy in response to EV tariffs... China imposed temporary anti-dumping measures on brandy imports from the European Union after the bloc voted for tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs). An investigation has preliminarily determined that dumping of brandy from the EU is threatening China’s own brandy sector with “substantial damage,” the Chinese commerce ministry said. The ministry said its anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation into EU pork products was ongoing and would make “objective and fair” decisions at the end of the probe. The ministry also said it was considering a hike in tariffs on imports of large-engine vehicles.
China confident on economic growth goal, but no new stimulus yet... China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) reaffirmed confidence in reaching its 2024 economic targets and announced plans to accelerate spending but stopped short of unveiling significant new stimulus measures. NDRC promised to bring forward 100 billion yuan in investment initially earmarked for 2025 and add another 100 billion yuan for strategic projects in 2024. China will also quicken fiscal spending and “all sides should keep making efforts more forcefully” to strengthen macroeconomic policies. Chinese Premier Li Qiang said the government will study reserve policies to stabilize economic development for the coming year, implementing them at the appropriate time in response to changing economic conditions, without giving specific details.
McDonald’s sues meatpacking giants for alleged beef price-fixing conspiracy... McDonald’s filed a lawsuit against major meatpacking companies, including JBS, Tyson Foods, Cargill and National Beef Packing, accusing them of conspiring to limit beef supplies and inflate prices since 2015. The fast-food chain alleges these companies reduced their output to drive up industry prices, violating U.S. antitrust laws. The lawsuit follows similar claims from other companies like Target and Aldi. McDonald’s is seeking monetary damages and an end to the alleged price-fixing. The case has been filed in the Eastern District of New York, with related proceedings in Minnesota.
China to buy frozen beef, mutton for state reserves... China will buy 6,000 MT of frozen beef and mutton for its state reserves on Oct. 9. This is the fourth batch of purchases for state reserves this year.
Wholesale beef prices strengthen... Wholesale beef prices firmed $3.35 for Choice to $305.93 and $1.72 for Select to $289.33 on Monday, while movement totaled 106 loads. While the wholesale market is strengthening, packer cutting margins remain deep in the red, spurring questions about whether packers will bid up for cash cattle after four straight weeks of gains.
Cash hog index falls, pork cutout rises... The CME lean hog index is down 57 cents to $84.26 as of Oct. 4, the second straight decline after a three-day rally to end last week. The pork cutout firmed $1.74 to $96.05 on Monday as strong gains in loins, butts, picnics and bellies more offset lower prices for primal ribs and hams.
Overnight demand news... Japan is seeking 115,050 MT of milling wheat in its weekly tender.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
· No reports scheduled.