Good morning!
Beans rebound overnight, corn and wheat weaker... Soybeans recouped some of Thursday’s losses during the overnight session, while corn and wheat faced followthrough selling. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 3 cents lower, soybeans are 4 to 5 cents higher, winter wheat futures are 7 to 9 cents lower and spring wheat is 1 to 2 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is nearly 150 points lower and front-month crude oil futures are around $1.00 higher.
East Coast, Gulf port strike halted with tentative agreement... The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) agreed to extend their Master Contract until Jan. 15, 2025. This extension provides time for both parties to return to the bargaining table and negotiate any outstanding issues beyond wages, including automation on the docks. The strike’s end will allow for the reopening of 36 affected ports, including major hubs like New York, Baltimore and Houston. All current job actions will cease immediately, and work covered by the Master Contract will resume. The backlog of ships at ports now needs to be cleared. Ahead of the work stoppage, most indicated it would take around five days to clear any shipping backlog created by one day of the strike. Indications are that upwards of 60 ships could be lined up at the affected ports. Those ports said they will reopen today to begin handling vessels by late afternoon/early evening. The resolution ensures the availability of critical supplies for Hurricane Helene recovery and rebuilding efforts, along with keeping supply chains open through the upcoming holiday season.
ADM to temporarily idle Iowa soy facility for maintenance... Archer-Daniels-Midland Co is idling its only soybean processing plant in Iowa for weeks in the thick of harvest, the grain merchant told Reuters. ADM’s facility in Des Moines will close for maintenance work from mid-October through November, the company said. The facility crushes about 5 million bu. of soybeans a month on average, representing about 12% of Iowa’s monthly soybean crush. ADM did not comment on the reason for the closure but agreed to upgrade the plant this year to resolve alleged air quality violations under a 2023 consent decree with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources.
Continued slow jobs growth expected... Economists polled by Reuters expect the Labor Department to report non-farm payrolls increased 140,000 during September, which would be nearly identical to the 142,000 increase initially reported for August. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.2%.
FAO food price index rises the most in 18 months in September... The UN Food and Agriculture Organization global food price index rose 3.0% from August, as all five components increased, led by a 10.4% jump in sugar. The September index rose 2.1% from last year to the highest level since July 2023. Compared to year-ago, prices rose 4.8% for meat, 21.7% for dairy and 17.8% for vegoils, while values fell 10.1% for cereal grains and 22.7% for sugar.
South Africa corn export forecast raised... South Africa’s Agricultural Business Chamber raised its forecast for the country’s corn exports for the year ending April 2025 to 1.9 MMT. The increase from a previous estimate of 1.85 MMT is due to higher-than-expected stocks carried over from the last season and a slight decrease in forecast domestic consumption, Wandile Sihlobo, the chamber’s chief economist, said in a statement sent to Bloomberg. Of the exports, 1.2 MMT will likely be yellow corn and 700,000 MT white corn, the chamber said. That would still a significant decline from last season’s shipments of 3.4 MMT.
Turkey to keep some curbs on wheat imports even when ban lifts... Turkey plans to continue limiting some wheat imports when its four-month ban on purchases ends this month, according to a document seen by Bloomberg. After Oct. 15, the market will be only partially opened using a quota system, according to a letter from the Turkish Flour Industrialists’ Federation to millers. It indicated the federation had received the directive from Turkish officials. The measures outlined in the letter would mean millers will be allowed to import just 15 MT of wheat for every 85 MT they buy from the Turkish grain board, according to traders. While traders expect the measures to be implemented as laid out in the document, it’s not binding and there could be adjustments before an official announcement.
BMI: China’s stimulus-driven upside for industrial metals, grains to be short-live... BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, expects recent Chinese stimulus measures will likely fuel only short-term support for industrial metals and agricultural prices, barring additional announcements. BMI argues that a sustained long-term upward trend in industrial metal prices is unlikely to materialize until there’s “a turning point in the Chinese property sector, which constitutes a large portion of industrial metals’ demand.” At the same time, base metals prices are likely to be supported by a weaker dollar in the coming months, given their inverse relationship to the greenback. In a similar vein, BMI does not expect the stimulus to provide either sustainable support to agricultural prices within China or long-lived momentum to international grain prices, with other factors set to continue shaping sentiment.
EU votes to impose definitive countervailing duties on imports of EVs from China... Ten EU countries voted in favor of imposing duties on imports of battery electric vehicles (EVs) from China, while five voted against and 12 member states abstained. Tariffs of up to 45% will be imposed on Chinese automakers, including BYD, Geely and SAIC. These duties will be in addition to the EU’s standard 10% car levy. The tariffs must be imposed by Oct. 30. This decision marks the conclusion of the EU’s anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese EVs, which was launched in October 2023. The EU argues that Chinese EVs benefit “heavily from unfair subsidies” and pose a “threat of economic injury” to European EV producers. The tariffs are designed to protect the European automotive sector from what EU officials perceive as unfair subsidies provided by the Chinese government to its domestic car manufacturers. Of note: The EU has stated it remains open to exploring alternative solutions with China, even after the adoption of tariffs, as long as they are WTO-compatible and address the subsidization issue. China criticized the EU’s decision, stating the investigation has come to “pre-set conclusions” and that the EU is promoting unfair competition. Beijing has already launched retaliatory investigations into European products such as brandy, pork and dairy.
California confirms two human cases of H5N1... California confirmed two human cases of H5N1 in people who had contact with dairy cattle infected by the virus. The cases bring total U.S. bird flu infections among people in contact with dairy cows and poultry to 15 this year. Another person in Missouri who had no immediate known contact with animals has also tested positive.
Cash cattle standoff continues... Cash cattle trade so far this week was too light for a true market test and cash negotiations remained stalled. Feedlots were still hopeful of getting higher prices for a fourth consecutive week while packers remained reluctant to raise bids amid negative margins.
Cash hog index building strength... The CME lean hog index is up 45 cents to $84.90 as of Oct. 2, the third straight daily gain and the largest singular increase since late July. October lean hog futures finished Thursday 72.5 cents below today’s cash quote, while December hogs held an $8.50 discount.
Overnight demand news... Exporters reported no tenders or sales.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
· 7:30 a.m. Employment Situation — BLS
· 2:00 p.m. Dairy Products — NASS
· 2:00 p.m. Peanut Prices — NASS
· 2:30 p.m. Commitments of Traders — CFTC