Good morning!
Light and choppy grain trade overnight... Corn, soybeans and wheat traded on both sides of unchanged while holding in relatively tight ranges during the overnight session. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn and soybean futures are trading fractionally higher, while wheat futures are mostly 2 to 4 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is more than 100 points lower and front-month crude oil futures are around 65 cents higher.
Weather improving for soybean planting in Brazil... Center-west, center-south and northeastern Brazil received much-needed rain during the past week that improved soil moisture. World Weather Inc. says with more rain on the way this week, planting and establishment conditions will further improve or remain favorable across Brazil’s main production areas, though sustained rains are needed to support ideal long-term crop development. South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier says soybean planting in the driest areas will happen rapidly with the rains, which means most of the crop will go through the critical reproductive stage at the same time and could cause logistical bottlenecks during harvest. Cordonnier left his Brazilian crop estimates at 165 MMT for soybeans and 125 MMT for corn.
Crop Progress Report highlights… Following are highlights from USDA’s crop progress and condition update as of Oct. 20:
· Corn: 98% mature (95% average); 65% harvested (52% average).
· Soybeans: 81% harvested (67% average).
· Cotton: 37% good/excellent (34% last week); 94% bolls opening (91% average); 44% harvested (38% average).
· Winter wheat: 73% planted (76% average); 46% emerged (50% average).
Russia’s 2025 wheat production could fall for third straight year... Russia’s 2025 wheat production could decline for a third straight year, according to the first projections released by leading Black Sea consultancies IKAR and SovEcon. IKAR forecasts production in a range of 80 MMT to 85 MMT. SovEcon put its first crop projection at 80.1 MMT, which would be the smallest since 2021-22. The official estimate for this year’s wheat harvest stands at 83 MMT. Unfavorable weather, including heavy rain in some regions and drought in others, has complicated winter grain sowing across Russia, but IKAR said there “is still time for vegetation to emerge through November.” SovEcon said, “The poor condition of winter wheat raises concerns about an increased risk of winter kill and crop failure.”
Ukraine’s winter grains 83.5% seeded... Ukrainian farmers had sown 4.33 million hectares of winter grains for the 2025 harvest as of Oct. 21, or 83.5% of the expected area of 5.19 million hectares, the agriculture ministry said. Plantings included 3.85 million hectares of winter wheat, or 85.9% of the projected 4.5 million hectares. Farmers also seeded 421,300 hectares of winter barley and 62,500 hectares of rye.
Indonesia targets new rice fields in drive for food self-sufficiency... Indonesia plans to open between 750,000 hectares and 1 million hectares (2.47 million acres) of new rice fields in 2025, part of new President Prabowo Subianto’s drive for food self-sufficiency, its agriculture minister said. Besides new rice fields, the government plans to intensify production from existing rice fields through programs such as the distribution of water pumps. Prabowo aims to expand farmland by 3 million hectares in the next five years, as the government is looking at creating farmland in Sumatra and Borneo islands, as well as the easternmost region of Papua. It was not clear how effective the efforts would be to raise next year’s rice output, or how soon the new rice fields would start producing.
Indonesia reaffirms plan to implement B40 in early 2025... Indonesia’s agriculture minister reaffirmed the country’s plan to implement a 40% mandatory biodiesel mix with palm oil-based fuel, known as B40, starting in January. The government is also working toward implementing B50 in the future.
India’s cotton output to fall on lower area, excess rain... India’s cotton production in 2024-25 (Oct.-Sept.) is likely to fall by 7.4% from a year ago to 30.2 million bales due to lower planted area and crop damage from excessive rainfall, the Cotton Association of India said. It noted the drop in production could lift cotton imports to 2.5 million bales in 2024-25 from 1.75 million bales last year.
IMF chief warns high prices will persist amid sluggish growth... International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva cautioned that elevated prices are likely to remain, adding pressure on consumers and businesses worldwide. Speaking at the Bretton Woods Conference, Georgieva highlighted the challenges of “slow growth and high debt,” with trade expanding slightly below global growth levels. IMF’s updated forecast anticipates global real GDP growth of 3.2% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025, aligning with the ongoing IMF and World Bank fall meetings this week. IMF’s forecast shows that while global inflation is expected to decline, it will do so gradually from 6.8% in 2023 to 5.9% this year and 4.5% in 2025. This slow decline in inflation rates suggests the impact of high prices will continue to be felt across economies for the foreseeable future.
China EV exports to EU soar ahead of tariffs... China exported the second highest volume of electric vehicles (EVs) to the European Union in September ahead of additional tariffs expected to take effect in November. Chinese makers shipped 60,517 EVs to the EU last month, up 61% from last year, according to customs data. The previous peak of 67,455 vehicles was in October 2023, when the European Commission announced it was launching an anti-subsidy investigation into China-made EVs.
Bird flu suspected in four Washington farm workers... The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention deployed a team to Washington state to assess the health of farm workers who culled poultry suffering from bird flu after four workers are presumed to have been infected by the virus, U.S. and state health officials said on Monday. The infections would make Washington the sixth state to identify human cases this year. The four tested presumptively positive after working at an infected egg farm, Washington’s health department said. The workers suffered mild respiratory symptoms and conjunctivitis (pink eye).
Torrid beef rally continues... Wholesale beef prices continued to surge with Choice rising $2.21 to $322.86 and Select up $2.01 to $296.21 on Monday. Estimated packer margins improved to more than $61.00 per head above breakeven on Monday, according to HedgersEdge.com, despite cash cattle prices rising for a sixth consecutive week.
Cash hog fundamentals strengthen... The CME lean hog index is up 27 cents to $84.23 as of Oct. 18, marking consecutive daily gains after falling to a new seasonal low late last week. The pork cutout firmed $1.65 on Monday amid strong gains in all cuts except primal bellies and picnics.
Overnight demand news... Exporters reported no tenders or sales, though results are awaited on Tunisia’s tender to buy up to 125,000 MT of optional origin soft milling wheat and Jordan’s tender to purchase 120,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
· 11:00 a.m. Fruit and Tree Nuts Data — ERS
· 11:00 a.m. Vegetables and Pulses Data — ERS
· 11:00 a.m. Cotton Ginnings — NASS