Good morning!
Weaker tone this morning... Corn, soybeans and wheat favored the downside in quiet, two-sided trade overnight, though seller interest has picked up early this morning with futures trading near session lows. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are 5 to 8 cents lower and wheat futures are 3 to 7 cents lower. Front-month crude oil futures are around $1 lower and the U.S. dollar index is more than 300 points higher this morning.
Midterm elections today... Today’s midterm elections will determine control of the House and Senate. Republicans are expected to secure control of the House, while predictions are on both sides of who will control the Senate. Usually slow Pennsylvania and Arizona, and a possible Dec. 6 runoff in Georgia’s Senate race could mean results will be days, weeks or longer. Pro Farmer encourages you to exercise your constitutional right to vote.
Winter wheat CCI ratings inch up but still far below average... When USDA’s weekly crop condition ratings are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop inched up 0.2 point to 265.9 but remained 77.2 points (22.5%) below the five-year average for early November. The SRW crop improved 2.6 points to 350.5, though that was 12.5 points (3.4%) below average for the date. Click here for more details.
Crop Progress Report highlights… Following are highlights from USDA’s crop progress and condition update for the week ended Nov. 6.
- Corn: 87% harvested (76% average).
- Soybeans: 94% harvested (86% average).
- Cotton: 62% harvested (55% average).
- Winter wheat: 92% planted (90% average), 73% emerged (74% average), 30% good/excellent (28% last week).
Consultant lowers Argentina corn crop forecast... Amid “continued adverse weather and potentially lower acreage,” crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Argentine corn crop estimate by 1 MMT to 50 MMT. He noted last week was “not a good week in Argentina” amid frosts in many areas on top of continued dry conditions. He expects only around 30% of the country’s corn crop will be planted by the end of this month. He noted: “Generally, late-planted corn yields 10% to 15% less than early corn, depending on weather.” Cordonnier kept his Argentine soybean crop estimate at 50 MMT and also made no changes to his Brazilian crop forecasts of 151 MMT for soybeans and 125.5 MMT for corn.
Russia sees little progress on implementation of its part of grain deal... Russia has not seen much progress on advancing its exports of grains and fertilizers as part of the Black Sea export initiative, Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko told state-run ITAR-TASS news agency. “So far, we do not see much progress on the Russian part [of the grain deal], so all factors will be taken into account when the final decision on the extension will be made,” he said.
Ukraine winter grain planting 90% complete... Ukrainian farmers have planted 4.3 million hectares to winter grains, including 3.6 million hectares of winter wheat, according to the country’s ag ministry. That was 90% of the area expected to be sown to winter grains for 2023 harvest. Winter wheat plantings are expected to fall sharply from 6.1 million hectares for the 2022 harvest due to Russia’s invasion.
ABM: La Niña maintains its strength... The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM) says oceanic and atmospheric indicators reflect mature La Niña conditions persist. Models suggest the weather phenomenon that typically increases the chance of above-average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia during its spring and summer will continue near-term, though the majority of them predict a return to ENSO-neutral conditions by early 2023.
China weighs gradual zero-Covid exit... Chinese leaders are considering steps toward reopening after nearly three years of tough pandemic restrictions. Chinese officials have grown concerned about the costs of their zero-tolerance approach to smothering Covid-19 outbreaks, which has resulted in lockdowns of cities and whole provinces, crushing business activity and confining hundreds of millions of people at home. But they are proceeding slowly, weighing potential costs of reopening for public health and support for the Communist Party.
UN chief on climate: ‘Cooperate or perish’... United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres opened the COP27 summit in Egypt on Monday by giving countries a stark choice: work together now to cut emissions or condemn future generations to climate catastrophe. The speech was intended to set an urgent tone as governments sit down for two weeks of talks on how to avert the worst impacts of climate change, even as they are distracted by Russia’s war in Ukraine, rampant consumer inflation and energy shortages.
Supreme Court hints it may back court challenges to SEC, FTC... The Supreme Court signaled it may open a new avenue for companies and people to fight off complaints by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Federal Trade Commission (FTC), hearing arguments in cases that could undercut the clout of two powerful market regulators. The justices are considering whether those facing agency claims can go straight to federal court with constitutional challenges — including attacks on the use of in-house judges to handle cases. Critics say the system gives agencies an unfair home-field advantage.
Traders build in a little premium into December live cattle... December live cattle futures rallied $1.40 on Monday, finishing $1.07 above last week’s average cash cattle price. With a winter storm coming to the Central and Northern Plains later this week, traders may build in more premium, especially with the cash market expected to continue its upward trajectory.
Cash hog index continues to decline... The CME lean hog index is down another 57 cents to $90.88 (as of Nov. 4). That’s the lowest price since Feb. 11, though more than $12.00 above last year at this time. After Monday’s strong gains, December hogs finished $3.83 below today’s cash index quote.
Overnight demand news... Japan is seeking 94,603 MT of milling wheat in its weekly tender. Egypt canceled its tender to buy an unspecified amount of wheat due to high prices.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- No reports scheduled.