Good morning!
Quiet overnight grain trade... Corn, soybeans and wheat pivoted around unchanged while holding in tight trading ranges overnight but have adopted mildly firmer tones this morning. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading fractionally higher, soybeans are around a penny higher and wheat futures are mostly 2 to 4 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is around 150 points lower and front-month crude oil futures are about 50 cents higher.
Election Day. Vote!... Today is Election Day, with tight races for the presidency and House, while Republicans are expected to gain a slight majority in the Senate. If you have not done so already, Pro Farmer encourages you to vote.
StoneX lowers U.S. corn, soybean crop estimates... Commodity brokerage StoneX lowered its U.S. corn production estimate to 15.193 billion bu. (15.222 billion bu. in October) on a yield of 183.7 bu. per acre, down 0.3 bu. from last month. StoneX cut its soybean crop estimate to 4.539 billion bu. (4.613 billion bu. in October) on a yield of 52.6 bu. per acre, down 0.9 bu. from last month. The firm’s estimates are based on surveys of its customers and assume USDA’s harvested acreage.
SRW leads CCI improvement for winter wheat crop... USDA rated the winter wheat crop 41% “good” to “excellent,” and 23% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop inched up 0.4 point to 308.3. The SRW rating improved 6.9 points, led by a 3.2-point increase in top SRW producer Illinois. The CCI ratings are still below year-ago by 12.7 points for HRW and 8.2 points for SRW. Click here for details.
Crop Progress Report highlights… Following are highlights from USDA’s crop progress and condition update as of Nov. 3:
· Corn: 91% harvested (75% average).
· Soybeans: 94% harvested (85% average).
· Cotton: 63% harvested (54% average).
· Winter wheat: 41% good/excellent (38% last week); 87% planted (89% average); 66% emerged (71% average).
Cordonnier keeps South American crop estimates unchanged... Weather conditions improved across central Brazil over the past week. As a result, South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his Brazilian crop estimates at 165 MMT for soybeans and 125 MMT for corn. He has a neutral bias toward both crops but says if weather continues to improve, that could switch to neutral/higher for soybeans. Cordonnier kept his Argentine crop estimates at 57 MMT for soybeans and 48 MMT for corn, as weather improved in the country’s core production region.
Adverse weather sharply trims Russian grain production... Russia is set to lose 20 MMT to 22 MMT of grains from this year’s harvest due to adverse weather conditions, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut told the Vedomosti newspaper. Lut said that farmers had initially expected to harvest 150 MMT of grains, according to the area sown and predicted yields, but frosts, drought and rains have brought the forecast down to about 130 MMT – a level the ag ministry has been forecasting for a while.
Ukraine nears completion of winter grains seeding... Ukrainian farmers had planted 4.91 million hectares of winter grains as of Nov. 4, or 94.6% of the expected 5.19 million hectares, the ag ministry said. That included almost 4.3 million hectares of winter wheat, or 95.9% of expected plantings, 543,600 hectares of winter barley and 67,900 hectares of rye.
India expects jump in grain production, driven by record 2024-25 summer rice crop... India’s summer-sown rice output, which accounts for bulk of its annual production, is expected to hit a record 120 MMT in the 2024-25 crop year, the ag ministry said in its first production estimate. That would be up from production of 113.3 MMT in 2023-24. The country’s overall summer-sown grains output is expected to total 164.7 MMT in 2024-25, up from 155.8 MMT the previous year. The ministry expects India’s oilseed production to rise to 25.7 MMT from 24.2 MMT in 2023-24.
Chinese premier confident in economic recovery, subtly criticizes U.S. and EU trade stance... Premier Li Qiang expressed confidence in China’s economic recovery and highlighted ample fiscal and monetary policy space, while subtly criticizing U.S. and EU trade practices during the China International Import Expo in Shanghai. “The Chinese government has the ability to drive sustained economic improvement,” Li said at the opening of the China International Import Expo in Shanghai. He added that officials had “ample space for fiscal policy and monetary policy” and reiterated that the nation would hit its economic growth target of around 5%.
Packer beef margins erode... Beef processing plants have seen margins go from sharply in the black to near breakeven over the past week. While the average cash cattle price weakened 23 cents last week, ending a seven-week string of gains, the decline from recent highs in wholesale beef prices was greater. Given eroding margins and recent hefty purchases, packers are likely to attempt to get cattle bought at lower prices again this week.
Traders widen discount in December hogs... The CME lean hog index is up another 82 cents to $89.38 as of Nov. 1, extending the string of gains to 12 straight days. After Monday’s corrective losses, December lean hog futures finished at a $6.155 discount to today’s cash quote, signaling traders don’t expect the contra-seasonal cash strength to persist.
Overnight demand news... Egypt purchased 290,000 MT of wheat, including 120,000 MT Romanian, 120,000 MT Ukrainian and 50,000 MT Bulgarian. Japan is seeking 121,790 MT of milling wheat in its weekly tender. South Korea tendered to buy 100,000 MT of milling wheat to be sourced from the U.S. or Australia. Bangladesh tendered to buy 50,000 MT of optional origin non-basmati parboiled rice.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
· Election day. Vote!
· No reports scheduled.