Good morning!
Corn and soybeans firmer, wheat mixed to open the week... Soybeans posted double-digit gains overnight while corn followed to the upside. Wheat is narrowly mixed this morning after gains earlier during overnight trade. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 2 to 3 cents higher, soybeans are 12 to 13 cents higher and wheat futures are a penny lower to 1 cent higher. The U.S. dollar index is more than 600 points lower and front-month crude oil futures are around $2.00 higher this morning.
The week ahead in Washington... The U.S. elections on Tuesday will take center stage, though it could take days or weeks to decide some of the races. It’s a tight race for president and control of the House, while Republicans are expected to win the Senate. It’s a busy week aside from the elections. The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates 25 basis points following its two-day monetary policy meeting on Thursday. USDA will release its 10-year baseline projections on Thursday and the November crop reports featuring updated production forecasts for corn and soybeans on Friday.
Wasserman: Presidential race tightens... David Wasserman, election analyst for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, told us on presidential contest: “As you know, a week ago I considered Trump a 60%-40% favorite. But Trump has had a terrible past week between ‘floating garbage,’ ‘taking care of women whether they like it or not,’ water fluoridation, etc. Might still give him a tiny edge but outlook has tightened considerably the more off-message he’s been.”
Rainy pattern continues for central United States... Flooding rain fell during the weekend from West Texas through the heart of Oklahoma to southeastern Kansas. Rainfall was less severe from northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas through the southeast half of Iowa to southwestern Wisconsin. World Weather Inc. says rainfall will be greatest early this week from eastern Oklahoma and the northwestern half of Arkansas into southeastern Wisconsin and western Michigan. Another storm dropping into the southwestern states late this week may bring another round of precipitation to areas from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes region.
South America in line for more rains... Brazil’s rainfall during the weekend was widespread from Rio Grande do Sul to southwestern Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso do Sul. Amounts were varied across Mato Grosso. Argentina’s weekend rainfall was greatest in central and southeastern Buenos Aires, providing relief to one of the country’s driest regions. More rains are expected across Brazil and Argentina over the next two weeks.
Brazil’s soybean planting surges again... After the slowest start to Brazil’s soybean planting season since 2020-21, a surge the past two weeks has now become the second fastest pace. As of last Thursday, AgRural said Brazil’s soybean planting reached 54% of planted area, up 18 percentage points for the week and three points ahead of last year. Corn planting advanced to 59%, seven points behind year-ago.
Unfavorable start for Ukraine’s winter grain crops... Weather over the past two months was unfavorable for development of Ukraine’s winter grain crops, analyst APK-Inform quoted the Ukrainian national agricultural academy as saying. “Expectations of favorable weather in the second half of the autumn period and hopes for rainy weather were largely not justified,” the scientists said in a report. “The development of plants is very slow, which threatens their further fate during the winter period.” They noted in the key steppe zone for cereal grains, drought lasted from June to October, or 117 days, the longest in three decades.
Canada’s major ports face shutdown amid longshore union lockout... Canada’s two largest ports, Vancouver and Port Rupert, face imminent closure as maritime employers respond to a strike notice from the International Longshore and Warehouse Union Ship & Dock Foremen Local 514 by locking out workers. The potential shutdown threatens C$800 million (around $575 million) in daily trade, prompting calls for government intervention. The union, representing 730 workers, issued a 72-hour strike notice for Monday, but the BC Maritime Employers Association plans a lockout unless a truce is reached. The disruptions add pressure to Canada’s logistics network, with the Port of Montreal also facing partial shutdowns due to separate disputes. The strike shouldn’t affect bulk grain shipping, only container traffic.
China to file lawsuit with WTO against EU’s EV tariffs... China’s commerce ministry said it has decided to file a lawsuit with the World Trade Organization (WTO) against the EU’s final countervailing measures on China-made electric vehicles (EVs). EU tariffs on China-made EVs went into effect last week, but the two sides will continue to meet on the issue with the bloc planning to send representatives to China for negotiations regarding price commitments in the EV tariff dispute. China has urged France to push the European Commission toward a solution acceptable to both the European and Chinese EV industries.
OPEC+ again pushes back production increase... OPEC+ agreed to push back its December production increase by one month, the second delay to its plans to revive supply as prices continue to struggle amid a fragile economic outlook. The group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia had intended to begin a series of monthly production increases by adding 180,000 barrels a day from December, but they will now keep supply restrained through year-end.
Euro zone PMI rises slightly more than flash estimate... The final HCOB euro zone purchasing managers index (PMI) compiled by S&P Global rose to 46.0 in October, above September’s 45.0 reading and the preliminary estimate of 45.9. Still, that represented the 28th straight month of contraction in the euro zone manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the Sentix index, measuring investor sentiment, fell to -12.8 in November from -13.8 in October, driven by slightly greater satisfaction with the current situation.
Cattle market looking toppy... After reaching the highest level since early July last Tuesday, December live cattle futures dropped sharply amid corrective selling. But the contract finished well off session lows Friday, marking key support bulls must defend to avoid a deeper pullback. The cash cattle and boxed beef markets also showed signs of topping last week.
Cash hog fundamentals continue to strengthen... The CME lean hog index is up another 63 cents to $88.56 as of Oct. 31, rising for an 11th consecutive day and reaching the highest level since Aug. 21. The pork cutout firmed 82 cents to $103.97 on Friday, as strong gains in primal bellies and hams offset weakness in other cut, rising to the highest level since Aug. 5.
Weekend demand news... South Korea purchased 66,000 MT of corn to be sourced from South America or South Africa. Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat from multiple sources. Indonesia purchased 449,000 MT of rice from Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar, Pakistan and India.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
· 10:00 a.m. Weekly Export Inspections — AMS
· 2:00 p.m. Dairy Products — NASS
· 3:00 p.m. Crop Progress — NASS