Good morning!
No overnight grain trade; abbreviated trading session today... There was no overnight grain trade due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Grain and livestock markets open at 8:30 a.m. CT and will close at 12:05 p.m. CT. Chinese soybean, corn and soymeal futures at the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed lower on Friday, while soyoil futures rose. Chinese cotton futures at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange closed higher on Friday. The U.S. dollar index is around 150 points lower this morning, while front-month crude oil futures are about 45 cents higher.
Weekly export sales... For the week ended Nov. 21:
| 2024-25 sales (MT; running bales for cotton) | 2024-25 expectations (MT) | Last week (MT) |
Corn | 1,062,900 | 800,000-2,000,000 | 1,494,647 |
Wheat | 366,800 | 200,000-600,000 | 549,601 |
Soybeans | 2,490,500 | 1,500,000-2,400,000 | 1,860,554 |
Soymeal | 487,300 | 150,000-550,000 | 274,903 |
Soyoil | 124,800 | 25,000-50,000 | 21,947 |
Cotton | 324,100 | NA | 318,500 |
Beef | 4,800 | NA | 14,300 |
Pork | 17,200 | NA | 18,100 |
First soyoil sales to China since 2020-21... Weekly export sales data included net sales 13,000 MT of soybean oil to China. Those were the first sales of soyoil to China since the 2020-21 marketing year.
Agroconsult forecasts record Brazilian soybean production, exports... Brazil is expected to produce a record 172.2 MMT of soybeans in 2024-25, according to Agroconsult. That would be up 10.7% from last year and 6.0% above the 2022-23 record. Brazil’s government crop forecasting agency Conab expects production to be 166.1 MMT. Agroconsult forecasts Brazil will export a record 103.4 MMT of soybeans in 2025. Agroconsult forecasts Brazil’s corn production rising to 132.7 MMT.
EU lowers wheat crop estimate to 12-year low... The European Commission reduced its estimate of usable common wheat production in 2024-25 by 300,000 MT to 112.6 MMT. That’s down 10% from last year and the lowest since 2012-13. The forecast for EU soft wheat exports in 2024-25 was kept unchanged at 25.0 MMT, down 10.3 MMT (29.2%) from 2023-24.
India to sell wheat reserves to flour millers... India plans to sell 2.5 MMT of wheat from its state reserves to bulk consumers such as flour millers and biscuit makers. State-run Food Corporation of India (FCI) will soon start offering wheat from its inventories by inviting tenders and will sell the grain at 23,250 rupees ($275.34) a ton, a government official said. The offered quantity is far lower than market expectations and will not be sufficient to bring down prices substantially. India’s wheat stocks in state warehouses stood at 22.3 MMT at the start of November, slightly higher than 21.9 MMT last year, but far below five-year average of 32.5 MMT.
French wheat crop ratings decline... France’s ag ministry rated the country’s wheat crop as 87% good/excellent as of Nov. 25, down one percentage point from the previous week. However, that was still seven points above last year at this time.
France’s biggest grain ports risk more disruption due to strikes... A French dock workers union called a series of strikes covering all of the country’s ports, potentially slowing grain exports in the EU’s biggest agricultural producer. The National Federation of Ports and Dockers-CGT announced a 48-hour work halt starting Dec. 9 and a suspension of all overtime and special work shifts, according to a statement on Thursday. Four-hour strikes are planned on 10 different days between Jan. 7-31. Ports affected by the dock workers strike include the biggest grain terminals at the northern towns of Le Havre and Rouen that handle 50% of the country’s wheat and barley exports.
Indonesia committed to introduce B40 on Jan. 1... Indonesia remains committed to start implementing a 40% mandatory biodiesel mix with palm oil-based fuel, or B40, on Jan. 1, its chief economic minister said. Indonesia currently requires B35 usage. He said Indonesia’s palm oil fund agency would be able to finance the gap between the cost of palm-oil based fuel and fossil fuel. B40 will boost Indonesia’s palm oil use for biodiesel to 13.9 MMT, from the estimated 11 MMT needed this year with B35, Indonesia’s biofuel producers association APROBI has previously estimated.
Coffee prices surge to 47-year high... Global coffee prices soared to their highest level in 47 years, fueled by severe weather in Brazil and Vietnam, the leading producers of arabica and robusta beans. Brazil experienced its worst drought in 70 years, followed by heavy rains, while Vietnam has faced three consecutive years of low output.
Gold, silver rise on safe-haven demand... Gold and silver futures posted strong gains overnight amid safe-haven demand as Russian President Vladimir Putin warned of possible strikes on “decision-making centers” in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, with new ballistic missiles that he said could turn the city into dust. Also, Russia’s defense minister is in North Korea to meet with his counterpart, stoking concerns over deepening military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow.
Mexico’s president refutes Trump’s border closure claim... Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum rejected President-elect Donald Trump’s assertion that she agreed to “close the southern border” during a recent call. Trump posted on Truth Social that Sheinbaum promised to halt migration to the U.S., but she clarified on X that “Mexico’s position is not to close borders.” Instead, she emphasized Mexico’s ongoing efforts to manage migration internally, stating no caravans are currently reaching the U.S. border. The leaders also discussed strategies to address the fentanyl crisis. Their conversation followed Trump’s announcement of potential 25% tariffs on Day One of his second term on Mexican imports to curb drug trafficking. While Sheinbaum ruled out a tariff war, she warned of Mexico’s potential economic countermeasures. President Joe Biden criticized the tariffs as “counterproductive,” highlighting the importance of strong relations with North American allies.
GOP faces slim majority in House amid Trump appointments... The Republican Party’s majority in the House has narrowed to a razor-thin margin due to Democratic electoral gains and Trump selecting three GOP House members for his administration. Starting January, Republicans will hold no more than 217 seats, compared to Democrats’ 215 after an expected California win. The slim two-seat majority leaves “no room for error” in advancing Trump’s legislative agenda, analysts note. Special elections to fill the vacant seats won’t occur until April.
PBOC injects $111 billion of liquidity as bond supply surges... The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) conducted 800 billion yuan ($111 billion) of outright reverse repurchase agreements in November, according to a statement Friday, exceeding the 500 billion yuan injected last month. The contracts are for three months and are aimed at safeguarding the availability of “reasonably ample” liquidity in the banking system, it said. Separately, PBOC bought a net 200 billion yuan of sovereign bonds from dealers in November. The aim was also to ensure plentiful cash supply, it said.
Euro zone inflation rises 2.3% in November... Consumer inflation in the euro zone increased 2.3% from year-ago in November, up from a 2.0% rise the previous month. Excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices, core consumer inflation increased 2.7% from year-ago, the same as October.
WHO calls for stronger surveillance of H5N1 among animals... A World Health Organization (WHO) official on Thursday called for stronger surveillance in animals for evidence of infection with H5N1 to curb its spread. The official also urged stronger efforts to reduce the risk of transmission of the virus to new species of animals and to humans. The agency said it is in touch with partner agencies such as the World Organization for Animal Health and Food and Agriculture Organization to increase surveillance in animals.
Cash cattle trade sharply higher... Cash cattle traded $2 to $5 higher on Wednesday as packers actively bid for cattle to secure supplies for the week. Live cattle futures should be supported by the cash trade, as prices were stronger than expected.
Cash hog fundamentals continue to weaken... The CME lean hog index is down another 39 cents to $85.51 as of Nov. 26, extending the belated seasonal price slide, though it remains above the mid-October low. The pork cutout fell $2.21 on Wednesday to $88.94, the lowest since Feb. 14.
Holiday demand news... South Korea tendered to buy 70,000 MT of optional origin non-GMO soybeans. Turkey tendered to sell 100,000 MT of durum wheat. Egypt made no purchases in a tender to buy an unspecified amount of wheat and vegoil. South Korea purchased 60,000 MT of rice to be sourced from Vietnam and Thailand.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
· 7:30 a.m. Weekly Export Sales — FAS
· 2:00 p.m. Agricultural Prices — NASS
· 2:00 p.m. Egg Products — NASS
· 2:00 p.m. Peanut Prices — NASS