Good morning!
Quiet grain trade overnight... Corn, soybeans and wheat held in relatively tight trading ranges during a quite overnight session. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading fractionally to a penny higher, soybeans are 4 to 5 cents higher and wheat futures are mostly 2 to 6 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is nearly 600 points lower and front-month crude oil futures are around 30 cents higher.
Thanksgiving schedule... Grain and livestock markets will trade normal hours today. Markets and government offices are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. As a result, there will be no Pro Farmer market updates tomorrow. On Friday, markets are open for an abbreviated trading session from 8:30 a.m. to 12:05 p.m. CT. Due to the shortened schedule, we will only send out two reports – “First Thing Today” Friday morning around 8:00 CT and “After the Bell” briefly highlighting the day’s price action after the closes. Happy Thanksgiving from your Pro Farmer staff.
Trump taps Greer as USTR... President-elect Donald Trump selected Jamieson Greer to serve as the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR). Greer was chief of staff for Robert Lighthizer, who was Trump’s USTR in his first administration. Lighthizer is expected to play a significant role in shaping trade policy, although his exact position if any remains uncertain. Greer has advocated for a strategic decoupling from China. He has also called for Congress to revoke Beijing’s “permanent normal trade relations” status and impose new, higher tariffs on Chinese goods. In testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Greer provided a roadmap for the policies the new administration might pursue, including action to prevent Chinese companies from relocating to other countries to dodge U.S. tariffs.
Mexico, China warn Trump against tariffs war... Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum warned Trump of dire economic consequences for both countries from tariffs and suggested possible retaliation following his threat of across-the-board tariffs of 25% on Mexico and Canada. Mexico and the U.S. are each other’s top trading partners. Editorials in Chinese state-run China Daily and the Global Times warned Trump to not make China a “scapegoat” for America’s fentanyl crisis or “take China’s goodwill for granted regarding anti-drug cooperation.” China Daily cautioned that escalating trade tensions would harm both nations, warning that U.S. agricultural exports could face retaliatory measures. The editorial urged the U.S. to value ongoing cooperation and avoid politicizing trade issues, stating: “If the U.S. continues to weaponize tariffs, it will leave no party unscathed.”
USDA projects even bigger record ag trade deficit for FY 2025... USDA forecasts ag exports in fiscal year (FY) 2025 at $170.0 billion, up $500 million from August. The forecast for FY 2025 ag imports jumped $3.5 billion to a record $215.5 billion. That would leave the U.S. with a record ag trade deficit of $45.5 billion, up from the current peak of $31.8 billion in FY 2024. Key markets remain stable, with Mexico, Canada, and China as the top buyers, though exports to China are set to dip. Imports have now set records annually since FY 2017, reflecting growing demand for foreign agricultural products.
Trump taps Hassett, Haley to leadership positions... Trump tapped Kevin Hassett as director of the National Economic Council, where he will work with other departments to implement the president’s economic policy. Hassett was chair of Council of Economic Advisers during the first Trump administration, where he played a crucial role in helping to design and pass the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. Trump appointed Vince Haley to lead Domestic Policy Council. Haley, who served as Director of Policy and Speechwriting during Trump’s campaign, also worked in the White House during Trump’s first term. The Domestic Policy Council will play a pivotal role in advancing Trump’s proposed agenda, which includes strict immigration enforcement, addressing urban crime and restructuring federal oversight of education.
South Africa to issue U.S. corn import permits... South Africa will issue import permits for genetically engineered white and yellow corn from the U.S. after a mid-summer drought that caused 22% drop in local production. USDA reported, “On Nov. 19, South Africa’s Department of Agriculture informed stakeholders that all GE corn events that caused asynchrony with the United States had been resolved and that import permits will be issued for GE white and yellow corn from the United States.” South Africa could import about 800,000 MT of corn in the marketing year that runs from May 2024 to April 2025, the report said.
FOMC signals vigilance on inflation, cautious approach to rate cuts... Federal Reserve officials indicated broad support for a careful approach to future interest rate cuts as the economy remains solid and inflation slowly cools, minutes from their latest policy meeting showed. “Participants anticipated that if the data came in about as expected, with inflation continuing to move down sustainably to 2% and the economy remaining near maximum employment, it would likely be appropriate to move gradually toward a more neutral stance of policy over time,” according to the minutes.
Russia warns of retaliation as Ukraine strikes with U.S. missiles... Russia’s defense ministry announced preparations for retaliatory measures after Ukraine used U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles to strike air defense units in Russia’s Kursk region. In recent days, Ukraine targeted a radar system near Kursk and an airfield with long-range missiles, causing damage and casualties, according to Russia. Seven of eight missiles fired on Monday were reportedly intercepted. The strikes follow a sharp escalation in the conflict, including Russia’s use of a new ballistic missile on Ukraine and President Vladimir Putin lowering the threshold for nuclear weapon use. Western nations justified Ukraine’s use of these advanced weapons as a response to Moscow deploying North Korean troops to the conflict. Ukraine continues to face intense Russian drone and missile attacks, with the latest wave involving 188 Shahed drones and ballistic missiles overnight.
China’s industrial profits fall less sharply in October... China’s industrial profits fell 10% from year-ago in October, improving from the 27.1% slump in September. Through the first 10 months of the year, industrial profits dropped 4.3% from the same period last year, steeper than the 3.5% decline in the first nine months.
Cash cattle trade expected today... Cash cattle negotiations have been slow to develop, though most cash sources expect the bulk of this week’s activity to be completed today ahead of Thursday’s holiday. While markets are open Friday, it appears packers and feedlots would prefer to wrap up cash trade today. Opinions remain mixed on the direction of cash cattle prices.
December hogs narrow discount to falling cash index... December lean hog futures posted strong gains on Tuesday, extending their week-long corrective bounce as traders narrowed discounts to the falling cash index. The CME lean hog index is down another 56 cents to $85.90 as of Nov. 25, extending the three-week decline. The pork cutout value fell $2.18 to $91.15 on Tuesday, the lowest level since March 7. December hogs finished yesterday $2.80 below today’s cash quote.
Thanksgiving costs shift amid falling turkey production... Turkey production in the U.S. is expected to total 205 million this year, a 6% drop from last year and a 17% decline since 2017, according to USDA’s the National Agricultural Statistics Service. With demand for turkey also falling, prices have decreased by 6% from 2023 to about $1.60 per lb., reports the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). Sweet potatoes are more affordable this year, while prices for dinner rolls and cubed stuffing mix have risen. The price of eggs has risen significantly. In total, AFBF says it will cost about $58.08 ($5.80 per person) to feed 10 people, down from $61.17 last year and $64.05 in 2022.
Overnight demand news... South Korea purchased 65,000 MT of U.S. corn. Algeria purchased an unspecified amount of corn to be Brazil or Argentina and an unspecified amount optional origin soymeal. Jordan tendered to buy up to 120,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
· 9:30 a.m. Weekly Ethanol Production — EIA
· 11:00 a.m. Livestock and Meat Domestic Data — ERS
· 2:00 p.m. Broiler Hatchery — NASS