Good morning!
Light corrective buying in grains overnight... Corn, soybeans and wheat firmed amid light corrective buying during the overnight session. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading fractionally to a penny higher, soybeans are 7 to 9 cents higher, winter wheat markets are 2 to 3 cents higher and spring wheat is 4 to 5 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is around 150 points lower and front-month crude oil futures are down about 25 cents.
Weekly Export Sales Report out this morning... For the week ended Nov. 7, traders expect:
| 2024-25 expectations (in MT) | Last week (in MT) |
Corn | 1,250,000-2,600,000 | 2,766,489 |
Wheat | 250,000-550,000 | 374,735 |
Soybeans | 1,000,000-2,200,000 | 2,037,193 |
Soymeal | 175,000-500,000 | 398,608 |
Soyoil | 5,000-50,000 | 114,311 |
All-time high NOPA crush expected for October... Analysts expect the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) to report its members crushed 196.8 million bu. of soybeans during October, which would be a record for any month, eclipsing 196.4 million bu. in March. At the expected level, crush would increase 19.5 million bu. (11.0%) from September and 7 million bu. (3.7%) from last year. Soyoil stocks are expected to rise for the first time in seven months to 1.090 billion pounds.
Biofuels industry pushes for tax credit extension amid regulatory delays... The biofuels industry is urging lawmakers to extend the blenders tax credit due to delays in Treasury guidance for the new Section 45Z credit, set to replace it next year. The 2022 tax law’s new clean fuel production credit bases incentives on carbon intensity scores, but producers lack clarity on compliance, causing market disruptions and plant closures. Clean Fuels Alliance America, joined by 10 associations, petitioned Congress for a one-year extension, highlighting widespread confusion and economic risks.
OMB to host first meeting on EPA’s proposed RFS waiver for cellulosic fuel... The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) will hold its first meeting on Nov. 22 regarding the EPA’s proposed rule for a “Partial Waiver of 2024 Cellulosic Biofuel Volume Requirement and Extension of 2024 Compliance Deadline” under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), who requested the waiver, argue there is a 115 million RIN shortfall for 2024. AFPM’s earlier petition to reduce 2023 cellulosic biofuel requirements was denied by EPA, citing sufficient RINs availability to meet the standards.
France’s winter wheat seeding accelerates... French farmers had seeded 78% of expected soft wheat area for next year’s harvest as of Nov. 11, the France’s ag ministry reported. That was ahead of 70% planted at this time last year but still behind the five-year average of 83%.
Burgum will be nominated as Interior Secretary... President-elect Donald Trump says he will nominate North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum to be Interior Secretary. Burgum visited Mar-a-Lago on Thursday, according to sources. Trump has praised Burgum in the past, calling him “great” and “a high-quality person.” Burgum was also on Trump’s shortlist for vice president. As governor of North Dakota, the third-largest oil-producing state in the country, Burgum has relevant experience for an Interior Secretary role. North Dakota also has more than 4 million acres under federal oversight. Burgum would manage the more than 500 million acres of federal land as well as the fossil fuels and minerals that lie beneath the surface — making him a critical component in Trump’s promise to boost oil and gas output.
Tai advocates targeted tariffs against China... U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai emphasized the need for targeted tariffs to protect key sectors from a potential “China Shock 2.0,” warning against a repeat of economic turmoil from China’s World Trade Organization entry in 2001. Speaking in Lima, Peru, Tai highlighted tariffs as part of a strategic defense alongside investments to bolster industries such as clean energy, semiconductors and cars. Tai cautioned against broad, sweeping tariffs and called for a focused approach to strengthen the U.S. economy and counter China’s market dominance.
China’s industrial production slows, retail sales rise in October... China’s industrial production expanded 5.3% from year-ago in October, slowing from September’s four-month high of 5.4%. China’s retail sales increased 4.8% annually in October, accelerating from a 3.2% rise the previous month and the largest growth since February.
China’s housing sector accelerates slump despite stimulus... China’s new home prices in 70 cities declined 5.9% from year-ago in October following a 5.8% drop in the previous month. This marked the 16th consecutive month of decrease and the steepest pace since April 2015, despite Beijing’s efforts to mitigate the impact of persistent weakness in the property sector, including lowering mortgage rates and cutting home buying costs.
British economy unexpectedly contracts in September, slowing quarterly growth... The British economy unexpectedly contracted 0.1% month-over-month in September, the first decline in five months, following a 0.2% rise in August. GDP expanded 0.1% during the third quarter, the smallest growth rate in three quarters and down from 0.5% in the second quarter. However, British GDP expanded 1% from year-ago in the third quarter, the strongest annual growth rate in seven quarters.
Cash cattle trade lower... Cash cattle activity so far this week has been mostly around $185.00, both in the Southern Plains and northern market. That was down around $1.50 from last week’s five-area weighted average. Packers’ purchase volume could be light again this week, as feedlots resisted actively moving cattle at the lower prices.
Bellies pressure wholesale pork prices... The pork cutout fell $3.19 to $94.07 on Thursday, the lowest level since Sept. 24, pressured by a $20.78 plunge in primal belly prices. Belly prices have plummeted $46.46 from their Nov. 1 peak to the lowest level since Sept. 25.
Overnight demand news... South Korea purchased 134,000 MT of optional origin corn.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
· 7:30 a.m. Weekly Export Sales — FAS
· 11:00 a.m. Monthly Soybean Crush — NOPA
· 2:00 p.m. Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: November 2024 — ERS
· 2:00 p.m. Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: November 2024 — ERS
· 2:00 p.m. Peanut Prices — NASS
· 2:00 p.m. Turkey Hatchery — NASS