Good morning!
Wheat lower, corn and beans choppy... Wheat futures faced followthrough selling during the overnight session, while corn and soybeans pivoted around unchanged in light, two-sided trade. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading around a penny lower, soybeans are 1 to 3 cents lower and wheat is mostly 3 to 4 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is mildly weaker and front-month crude oil futures are modestly firmer this morning.
Notable improvement in HRW, SRW CCI ratings... USDA rated the winter wheat crop 44% “good” to “excellent,” and 18% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop improved 11.9 points to 320.2, which is now 1.3 points above year-ago. The SRW rating increased 8.2 points to 371.4, still 4.4 points below year-ago. Top producers Kansas (HRW) and Illinois (SRW) led the weekly crop improvement. Click here for details.
Crop Progress Report highlights… Following are highlights from USDA’s crop progress and condition update as of Nov. 10:
· Corn: 95% harvested (84% average).
· Soybeans: 96% harvested (91% average).
· Cotton: 71% harvested (63% average).
· Winter wheat: 44% good/excellent (41% last week); 91% planted (93% average); 76% emerged (79% average).
COFCO: China’s soybean imports may fall 9.5%... China’s soybean imports will drop to 98.8 MMT in 2024-25 from 109.4 MMT last year, an executive of China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation (COFCO) said. The COFCO executive did not provide reasons for the anticipated drop in soybean imports but said they would need to see if buyers are willing to take on U.S. cargoes. “If we look at the long-term trend, looking at December and January shipping schedules, profit margins from U.S. soybeans are relatively good. But we have to monitor the effectiveness of the profit margins – whether people will dare to buy U.S. soybeans,” the official said. China’s ag ministry forecasts soybean imports will fall to 94.6 MMT in 2024-25 from 104.74 MMT last year.
Russia’s winter wheat plantings to fall to 7-year low... Winter wheat seedings in Russia will shrink to 15.4 million hectares in 2025-26, the lowest since 2018-19, according to Igor Pavensky, an expert at Russian grain carrier Rusagrotrans. Drought in key regions restricted winter wheat plantings this fall. He forecasts Russia’s total grain production for 2025-26 at around 133 MMT, including 84.5 MMT of wheat.
Ukraine heavily front loads 2024-25 wheat exports... Ukrainian traders have exported just over a half of the government-agreed 16.2 MMT of wheat available for export in 2024-25, ag ministry data showed. As of Nov. 13, Ukraine’s 2024-25 wheat exports totaled 8.2 MMT. Ukraine exported around 18.3 million tons MMT of wheat in 2023-24. Ukraine’s total grain exports since July 1 reached almost 16 MMT, up from about 11 MMT during the same period last year. Besides wheat, the export volume included 5.7 MMT of corn and 1.7 MMT of barley.
France cuts wheat export forecast... France’s ag ministry cut it 2024-25 wheat export forecast outside the EU by 100,000 MT to 3.9 MMT, 62% below last year’s level. The ministry also trimmed wheat exports within the bloc by 30,000 MT to 5.9 MMT, now 6.3% below the 2023-24 volume.
Indonesia reaffirms B40 biodiesel plan for 2025... Indonesia’s government reaffirmed to lawmakers a plan to implement a 40% mandatory biodiesel mix with palm oil-based fuel, known as B40, in January 2025, as part of the new government’s “quick wins” program. Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia also told a parliamentary hearing the government expects to implement a B50 mandate by 2026. The plan to increase the biodiesel blend from the current 35% is part of an effort to reduce fuel imports, which analysts have said would increase demand and prices for palm oil.
Latest personnel announcements by President-elect Donald Trump...
· Pete Hegseth, a Fox News host and veteran, to be secretary of Defense. Hegseth served in the Army National Guard in Iraq and Afghanistan.
· Former director of national intelligence John Ratcliffe to head the CIA.
· William McGinley as White House counsel.
· Mike Huckabee as U.S. Ambassador to Israel.
· Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy were tapped to lead a new outside-of-government group dubbed the “Department of Government Efficiency” to slash regulations and waste and “restructure” federal agencies.
The siblings behind RFK Jr.’s ‘Make America Healthy Again’ campaign... Calley and Casey Means, siblings leading Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s “Make America Healthy Again” campaign, are set to influence Donald Trump’s health agenda. They advocate for healthier school meals, sustainable agriculture, and banning certain food additives, blending left-leaning wellness ideas with conservative themes, according to the Wall Street Journal. The duo’s distrust of traditional medicine and push for holistic health measures, including reducing pharmaceutical influence and changing food industry practices, mark a shift from the previous Trump administration’s health policies. They aim to reshape U.S. health systems with RFK Jr., who may hold a prominent role in Trump’s new administration.
China unveils new tax incentives to revive struggling property sector... China cut home purchase deed taxes to 1% for first- and second-time buyers of flats of 140 square meters and below, from a current level of as much as 3%, effective Dec. 1. That paves way for reduced costs for property purchases in mega cities including Beijing and Shanghai. China will also allow the biggest cities to scrap the distinction between ordinary and luxury homes, which would substantially lower purchasing costs for people seeking to upgrade their residences. The minimum pre-collection rate for land value-added tax also will be reduced by 0.5 percentage points.
Beef packer margins turn red... Estimated beef packer margins continued their recent decline and are now around $50.00 per head in the red, according to HedgersEdge.com. That’s likely to keep packers cautious with cash cattle bids this week, though feedlots aren’t likely to be too open to actively moving cattle at lower prices.
Bellies, loins pressure pork cutout... Primal pork belly prices plunged $11.56 on Tuesday, which along with a $5.27 drop in loins, triggered a $3.78 decline in the pork cutout to $97.68. The sharp drop in price sparked a jump in movement to 379.60 loads, signaling strong underlying retailer demand. The CME lean hog index is down 14 cents to $89.88 as of Nov. 11, the third straight daily decline.
Overnight demand news... South Korea purchased 133,000 MT of corn in two separate tenders – all to be sourced from the U.S., South America or South Africa – and 65,000 MT of optional origin feed wheat, excluding Russia, Argentina, Pakistan, Denmark and China. Japan purchased 4,100 MT of feed wheat and 220 MT of feed barley. Jordan tendered to buy up to 120,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
· 11:00 a.m. Meat Price Spreads — ERS
· 11:00 a.m. Oil Crops Outlook: November 2024 — ERS
· 2:00 p.m. Dairy Monthly Tables and Dairy Quarterly Data — ERS
· 2:00 p.m. Feed Outlook: November 2024 — ERS
· 2:00 p.m. Rice Outlook: November 2024 — ERS
· 2:00 p.m. Wheat Outlook: November 2024 — ERS
· 2:00 p.m. Broiler Hatchery — NASS