Good morning!
Corn mildly firmer, beans weaker and wheat mixed... Corn posted mild gains overnight, soybeans faced price pressure for most of the session and wheat pivoted around unchanged. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading fractionally to a penny higher, soybeans are 8 to 11 cents lower, SRW wheat futures are narrowly mixed, HRW wheat is 2 to 3 cents lower and HRS wheat is a penny lower to 4 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is around 350 points higher and front-month crude oil futures are about 40 cents higher this morning.
Trump fills more leadership roles... President-elect Donald Trump has selected Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), who is a NATO critic and China hawk, to serve as his national security advisor. He is expected to tab Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), another China hawk, as Secretary of State. South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem reportedly will be the next head of the Department of Homeland Security. Trump also plans to name longtime aide Stephen Miller as White House deputy chief of staff for policy.
Cordonnier leaves South American crop estimate unchanged, Brazil bean bias improves... South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his Brazilian crop estimates at 165 MMT for soybeans and 125 MMT for corn. His bias moved to neutral/higher for soybeans given the recent surge in plantings, generally good condition of the crop and favorable forecast for most of Brazil. Cordonnier kept his Argentine crop estimates at 57 MMT for soybeans and 48 MMT for corn.
Frances inches up wheat production estimate... France’s ag ministry modestly raised its 2024 wheat production estimate to 25.56 MMT, up 130,000 MT from its prior forecast, though still the smallest since the 1980s. The ministry also increased this year’s corn production by 150,000 MT to 14.62 MMT.
Kazakhstan opens new seaport grain terminal... Kazakhstan opened a new grain terminal with 1 MMT of annual capacity at the Kuryk seaport in the Mangistau region. The terminal is expected to increase Kazakhstan’s grain exports to Iran and the Caucasus region. This terminal is part of Kazakhstan’s 2024-2028 Sea Infrastructure Development Plan.
China wants healthy trade relations with America... China is willing to resolve differences and strengthen communications with the U.S. to jointly promote stable, healthy and sustainable economic and trade relations, Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen said. Meanwhile, the most important task for Russia and China is to counter any attempt by the U.S. to contain their countries, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin told the Chinese foreign minister.
Euro zone economic sentiment drops... The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the euro zone fell 7.6 points to 12.5 in November. Some 62.5% of the surveyed analysts expected no changes in economic activity, 25% predicted an improvement and 12.5% anticipated a deterioration. The indicator of the current economic situation fell 3 points to -43.8 and inflation expectations rose 7.5 points to -13.4.
OPEC cuts global oil demand growth forecasts for a fourth consecutive month... Global oil consumption will increase by 1.8 million barrels a day — just under 2% — in 2024, according to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in a monthly report. That’s 107,000 barrels a day less than previously forecast amid reduced consumption forecasts for China, India and Africa. Daily demand will increase by 1.5 million barrels in 2025, or 103,000 barrels less than OPEC previously forecast. OPEC has scaled back this year’s demand growth projections by almost a fifth since July, in keeping with a sharp retreat in crude prices. Yet the cartel’s outlook remains significantly more bullish than other forecasters.
Bankrupt poultry supplier highlights challenges in Biden’s meatpacking initiative... The Biden administration’s effort to boost competition in the meatpacking industry faces significant challenges, exemplified by the bankruptcy of Pure Prairie Poultry, a recipient of USDA support. As the Wall Street Journal reports, the USDA-backed startup, intended to disrupt industry giants like Tyson and Cargill, declared bankruptcy, leaving 1.3 million chickens unfed. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack defended the broader initiative, while critics like Iowa’s Agriculture Secretary and Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) have questioned oversight and effectiveness. The program’s delays and market challenges have raised doubts about its potential impact.
Lower cash cattle expectations... The average cash cattle price declined $3.29 to $186.53 last week, the second straight weekly decline. While packers purchased only 50,000 head at the sharply lower prices, cash sources say they have plentiful near-term supplies, which will likely keep cash prices under pressure.
Cash hog index, pork cutout weaken... The CME lean hog index is down 41 cents to $90.02 as of Nov. 8, the second straight daily decline. The pork cutout fell 92 cents on Monday, pressured mostly by an $11.18 decline in primal belly prices, though hams, ribs and butts were also lower.
Overnight demand news... Jordan purchased 60,000 MT of optional origin hard milling wheat. Algeria tendered to buy up to 240,000 MT of corn to be sourced from Brazil and Argentina. Japan is seeking 114,403 MT of milling wheat via its weekly tender.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
· 10:00 a.m. Weekly Export Inspections — AMS
· 11:00 a.m. Feed Grains Database — ERS
· 2:00 p.m. Rural America at a Glance: 2024 Edition — ERS
· 2:00 p.m. Season Average Price Forecasts — ERS
· 2:00 p.m. Wheat data — ERS
· 3:00 p.m. Crop Progress — NASS