Good morning!
Modest corrective gains in grains overnight... Corn, soybean and wheat futures modestly bounced from Thursday’s losses during the overnight session. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading fractionally to a penny higher, soybeans are mostly 1 to 2 cents higher and what futures are 2 to 4 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is modestly firmer and front-month crude oil futures are around $1.00 lower.
Mexico, Canada take additional actions to ward off U.S. tariffs... In a historic crackdown on cartel operations, Mexico has transferred 29 high-profile cartel operatives to U.S. custody, including Rafael Caro Quintero, the infamous Sinaloa cartel leader wanted for decades. The move, seen as a major victory for the Trump administration, signals increased co-operation between Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and U.S. authorities. The mass transfer underscores ongoing diplomatic efforts to combat cartel violence and the drug trade across the U.S./Mexico border. Canada sent its new “fentanyl czar” and cabinet ministers to meet with President Donald Trump’s border czar Tom Homan this week. Canada named the czar as part of an agreement with Trump to increase its efforts to curb the amount of fentanyl crossing over from Canada to the United States. Canada has argued that the amount of fentanyl seized at the Canadian border is a fraction of what is found at the southern border.
China accuses U.S. of fentanyl ‘blackmail’ after latest tariff threat... Beijing accused the United States on Friday of exerting “tariff pressure and blackmail” after President Trump’s latest threat to slap an extra 10% tariffs on Chinese imports, citing a continued flow of fentanyl into the country. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said, “It has created a serious impact, pressure, coercion and threat to the dialogue and cooperation between the two sides in the field of drug control.” He added, “Remarkable results have been achieved” from China’s anti-drug cooperation with the U.S., saying China was the world’s first country to officially control fentanyl-like substances.
China vows to prevent, resolve economic risk, external shock... China will prevent and resolve risk and external shock in key areas of the economy, state media cited the Politburo as saying after a meeting on Friday. Beijing will implement a more proactive macro policy and expand domestic demand, the Politburo said. The Politburo met to discuss a government work report due to be published during an annual parliamentary meeting in early March.
Chinese banks heed PBOC call to cut dollar deposit rates... China’s banks are cutting the interest rates offered on U.S. dollar deposits after being asked to do so by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). Two banking sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters banks across China have over the past few weeks been told by PBOC they have to cut dollar deposit rates. This guidance seems aimed at discouraging a further rise in dollar deposits and spurring more conversion of those dollars into yuan, the sources said.
Limited details about ag disaster relief payments... Farmers are asking about the $21 billion in ag disaster relief after USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the $10 billion in economic aid to farmers is coming before the March 21 statutory deadline. But news has been scant about the ag disaster aid. The only thing we can report is that the program is still being put together, which means not much new information is available.
French wheat crop ratings slip... France’s ag ministry rated the country’s soft wheat crop as 73% good/excellent as of Feb. 24, down one percentage point from the previous week. While up from a 68% rating on this date last year, this was the second lowest in the past five years. Wheat conditions deteriorated between December and February due to excessive wetness, though not to the degree seen last year.
India’s sugar output down sharply... Indian mills produced 21.98 MMT of sugar between Oct. 1 and Feb. 28, down 14% from the previous year, on lower output from key producing states Maharashtra and Karnataka, the Indian Sugar & Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) said. ISMA noted 177 sugar mills have already closed operations, compared to 49 at this time last year.
EPA moves to dismiss biofuels blending lawsuit... EPA asked a federal court to dismiss a lawsuit filed by Clean Fuels Alliance America (CFAA), which seeks to compel the agency to set 2026 biofuel-blending volume targets under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The lawsuit argues that EPA missed a November 2024 deadline, but the agency contends the suit is premature, as plaintiffs provided notice of intent to sue before the deadline had passed. CFAA representatives stress the importance of increased biofuel targets to support the industry and meet energy demands.
APHIS adjusts strategy to combat New World screwworm... USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) is modifying its sterile fly dispersal strategy to push the New World screwworm (NWS) away from the U.S. and back toward the biological barrier in Panama. APHIS will now focus dispersal efforts in Mexico — the northernmost point of the outbreak — using its proven eradication model.
USDA’s Rollins goes virtual for USDA Outlook... Newly installed USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins was set to address the annual confab today instead of delivering remarks at the opening session on Thursday as is usually the case at the gathering. But late Thursday night, USDA advised that due to “travel challenges” Rollins would be addressing the meeting virtually and not in person. That also meant a fireside chat with her and USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer was cancelled as was her press briefing after delivering remarks.
Light cash cattle trade at lower prices... Only light cash cattle trade has occurred so far this week at mostly $2.00 lower prices. With futures signaling short-term lows, feedlots may limit sales if bids remain weak. With packers thought to have ample supplies of contracted and formulated cattle to pull from in March, it will limit their need for negotiated cash cattle purchases.
Cash hog index drops, pork cutout jumps... The CME lean hog index is down a dime to $89.39 as of Feb. 26, marking losses in four of the past five days. After Thursday’s price plunge, April lean hog futures held a $5.015 discount to today’s quote. Pork cutout jumped $4.30 on Thursday, fueled by a $26.64 surge in primal bellies.
Overnight demand news... South Korea purchased 65,000 MT of optional origin feed wheat.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- Ag Outlook Forum — USDA
- 2:00 p.m. Livestock and Meat Domestic Data — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Agricultural Prices — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Cold Storage - Annual — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Egg Products — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Peanut Prices — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Poultry Slaughter - Annual Summary — NASS
- 2:30 p.m. Commitments of Traders — CFTC