Good morning!
Please fill out our acreage survey... You should have received our annual spring acreage survey via e-mail. Please fill out the survey with your current planting intentions for this year. We’ll cover results and our acreage forecasts ahead of USDA’s March 28 Prospective Plantings Report. Click here to fill out the survey if you haven’t already responded. Please complete the survey only once.
Grains weaker to open the week... Corn, soybeans and wheat pulled back from Friday’s corrective gains during the overnight session. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 3 to 4 cents lower, soybeans are 6 to 8 cents lower, SRW wheat is 2 cents lower, HRW wheat is mostly 6 cents lower and HRS wheat is 3 to 4 cents lower. Front-month crude oil futures and the U.S. dollar index are both modestly weaker.
Brazil forecast drier, Argentina wetter... Forecasts for Brazil’s center-west and interior south are drier than on Friday over the next 10 days. World Weather Inc. says crop moisture stress will rise in Mato Grosso do Sul, southern Mato Grosso, northwestern Parana and western Sao Paulo. Argentina is expected to be excessively wet this week in east-central areas due to three waves of significant rain.
Canadian planting intentions out this morning... Statistics Canada is scheduled to release estimates of Canadian crop planting intentions at 7:30 a.m. CT. Analysts polled by Reuters expect planting intentions of 26.7 million acres for wheat and 21.6 million acres for canola. If realized, that would be down from 27.0 million acres of wheat and 22.1 million acres of canola in 2023.
Polish gov’t pledges grain surplus cut... Poland’s prime minister pledged to reduce a grain surplus on the domestic market at talks with farmers on Saturday, but union leaders said they were pressing on with weeks of protests. “The premier told the farmers there will be money available to take several million tons of grain off the market,” said Deputy Agriculture Minister Michal Kolodziejczak. But Tomasz Obszanski, leader of the NSZZ RI Solidarnosc union for individual farmers, said after the meeting the protests would continue and would be stronger. “In reality we left the meeting with nothing,” he said.
The week ahead in Washington... A six-bill minibus spending package for fiscal year 2024 was signed into law, averting a partial government shutdown. Congress will now work on a package for the remaining agencies, which are funded via a stopgap measure through March 22. Meanwhile, the Biden administration today will release its proposals for FY 2025, with several hearings on the topic this week. Most of the White House proposals, especially regarding tax hikes, will go nowhere. There will be a keen focus on economic indicators, with a particular focus on the consumer price index report for February on Tuesday and producer prices on Thursday.
China’s consumer prices rise, producer price deflation continues... China’s consumer prices rose 0.7% annually in February, a turnaround from the sharpest drop in over 14 years in January. That was the first monthly increase in consumer prices since last August and the highest level in 11 months due to robust spending during the Lunar New Year holiday. China’s producer prices fell 2.7% versus year-ago in February, the 17th straight month of contraction in factory gate prices.
Japan’s economy slightly expanded in Q4... Japan’s revised gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annualized clip of 0.4% in fourth quarter of 2023, avoiding a recession, though the upward revision was weaker than expected and highlighted concerns about the sluggish economic recovery. The upward revision came amid growing market expectations the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could ditch its negative interest rates as early as this month. BOJ made no purchases of Japanese exchange-traded funds on Monday despite local shares dropping sharply, stoking speculation that a shift away from ultra-supportive monetary policy is imminent.
Pork exports start 2024 strong, beef shipments slow... The U.S. exported 587.8 million lbs. of pork during January. While that was down 56.1 million lbs. (8.7%) from December, which was the highest monthly tally since May 2021, pork shipments increased 32.0 million lbs. (5.8%) from January 2023. USDA raised its 2024 pork export forecast and now expects a 4.8% increase to 7.130 billion pounds. Beef exports totaled 232.6 million lbs. during January, down 19.8 million lbs. (7.8%) from December and 10.0 million lbs. (4.1%) less than last year. USDA forecasts beef exports will fall 9.1% from last year to 2.785 billion pounds.
Wholesale beef prices climbing... Wholesale beef prices firmed 43 cents for Choice to $307.04 and $1.17 for Select to $297.43 on Friday. That’s the highest price for Choice beef since late October of last year, while the Select price is the highest since late June 2023. Beef packer margins have improved amid the rising wholesale prices, but remain in the red.
Cash hog index unchanged, pork cutout firms... The CME lean hog index is unchanged at $81.48 as of March 7, hinting at a potential stall of the seasonal rally since the beginning of the year. April lean hog futures finished last Friday at a $2.895 premium to today’s cash quote. The pork cutout value firmed 96 cents on Friday amid gains in all cuts except loins.
Weekend demand news... Turkey provisionally sold 150,000 MT of durum wheat to an unknown destination.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 7:30 a.m. Canadian Planting Intentions — StatsCan
- 10:00 a.m. Export Inspections — AMS
- 11:00 a.m. Feed Grains Database — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Season Average Price Forecasts — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. U.S. Agricultural Trade Data Update — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Wheat data — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Price Reactions after Crop Reports — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Price Reactions after Livestock Reports — NASS