Good morning!
Corn and beans firmer, wheat choppy overnight... Corn and soybean futures were supported by corrective buying overnight, while wheat pivoted around unchanged. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 4 to 5 cents higher, soybeans are 6 to 7 cents higher, winter wheat markets are steady to a penny higher and spring wheat is 2 to 3 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index and front-month crude oil futures are both modestly higher this morning.
Weekly Export Sales Report out this morning... For the week ended May 30, traders expect:
| 2023-24 expectations (in MT) | 2023-24 last week | 2024-25 expectations (in MT) | 2024-25 last week |
Corn | 600,000-1,200,000 | 810,148 | 0-300,000 | 187,763 |
Wheat | (100,000)-100,000 | (60,870) | 200,000-550,000 | 381,695 |
Soybeans | 175,000-650,000 | 329,427 | 0-200,000 | 6,921 |
Soymeal | 100,000-350,000 | 265,544 | 0-60,000 | 20,239 |
Soyoil | (5,000)-12,000 | 10,249 | 0-10,000 | 0 |
Argentine maritime unions strike... Maritime labor unions in Argentina announced on Thursday they would cease all activities in ports for 48 hours. The United Maritime Workers Union in a post on Facebook said that the Tugboat Owners Chamber (C.A.R.) has refused to negotiate an expired bargaining agreement, prompting the union to halt work.
Russia not expected to ban grain exports in emergency declaration... Russia will boost financial support to farmers but is not expected to ban grains exports if a federal emergency is declared due to frosts last month that damaged crops, industry sources told Reuters. “We don’t expect strict restrictions on exports, but reduction in our supply to the world market is quite possible. We will be less flexible on prices, recognizing the limitations of our supply,” said Eduard Zernin, head of Rusgain, an exporter group which regularly meets with the government to discuss their views on the state of the industry.
Ukraine maintains grain forecast for now despite unfavorable weather... Ukraine maintained its grain production forecast of 52.4 MMT despite poor weather in May, acting Ag Minister Taras Vysotskiy said. Frosts in the first half of May and an ensuing drought in most regions of Ukraine created unfavorable conditions for all crops and may affect yields. The prolonged absence of rain across most of Ukraine caused a deterioration of crop conditions, but there has not been irreversible damage if timely rains develop the remainder of the growing season.
Stabenow takes shots at House farm bill commodity title... Senate Ag Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) expressed significant concerns regarding the House Ag Committee’s farm bill, particularly its provisions related to commodity programs. During an online conversation with former Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), Stabenow said the House bill would substantially increase payments for Southern producers, specifically those with cotton, rice and peanut base acreage. She cites analysis from the University of Illinois and Ohio State that the proposal would essentially put the farm bill back to a system in place before the 2014 where “you get a government payment whether it’s a good time or a bad time.” Increasing reference prices by 70% would mainly benefit “big farmers” in the South, she said, citing estimates indicating these payments would more than double under the proposed legislation. Stabenow’s criticism reflects broader opposition to the bill’s approach, which some argue favors wealthier farmers and specific commodities at the expense of other priorities, such as climate funding and food aid. The bill’s contentious nature and the divided government make its path to becoming law uncertain, with significant negotiations and potential revisions likely needed to achieve bipartisan support. Stabenow said she is eyeing the post-election, lame duck session of Congress as the best chance to get new farm legislation passed this year.
China denies using EV subsidies barred by WTO... China doesn’t use subsidies for electric vehicles that have been prohibited by the World Trade Organization (WTO), a spokesperson for its foreign ministry said. “China’s new energy products, including electric vehicles (EVs), are widely popular in the international market,” the spokesperson said. “They are the result of the combined effects of comparative advantages and market laws.” The comments came in response to remarks by President Joe Biden that China provides subsidies to flood the U.S. market with EVs, concerns echoed by other administration officials. Subsidies cannot make up for industrial competitiveness, the Chinese spokesperson said.
Iowa detects first case of H5N1 in dairy cattle... A case of H5N1 virus was detected in a dairy herd in O’Brien Co., Iowa, according to the state’s agriculture department. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has previously confirmed over 80 dairy cases of H5N1 in South Dakota, Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan, Kansas, Idaho, New Mexico and Colorado. Iowa’s ag department also said that genomic sequencing of the virus found at a Sioux County mega flock of layer hens was “consistent with the variant identified in affected dairies in other states.” Genomic sequencing on the virus strain at a Cherokee Co. turkey flock or the O’Brien Co. dairy herd has not yet been completed.
Human dies from HPAI in Mexico... The World Health Organization (WHO) said a human death was caused by the first laboratory-confirmed case of infection with a subtype (H5N2) of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The 59-year-old resident of Mexico died on April 24 after developing symptoms associated with the virus. The victim had no history of exposure to poultry or other animals, WHO said. The person had chronic kidney disease and type 2 diabetes, and had been bedridden for three weeks prior to the onset of acute symptoms, WHO said. The H5N2 strain involved in this case is different from the H5N1 strain currently affecting dairy herds in the United States.
Germany confirms case of ASF... A case of African swine fever (ASF) has been confirmed on a pig breeding farm in Greifswald in the eastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the state’s ag ministry said. China and other countries banned imports of German pork in 2020 after an ASF outbreak in the country. China’s import ban remains in place.
Beef rally halted... Wholesale beef prices posted sharp losses on Wednesday, with Choice down $2.09 and Select $3.57 lower, though movement remained solid at 115 loads. Traders will monitor the wholesale beef market closely to see if yesterday marked a seasonal top in prices, as demand typically fades after retailers have purchases secured for the “beef” holidays that conclude July 4.
Cash hog index climbs, pork slides... The CME lean hog index is up another 13 cents to $92.06 as of June 4. The premium in both June and July lean hog futures is virtually gone, with those contracts closing at $92.10 and $92.20, respectively, on Wednesday. The pork cutout value slipped 45 cents yesterday to $100.31 as all cuts except bellies declined. The cutout continues to show no signs of moving too far away from the $100.00 level.
Overnight demand news... South Korea purchased 133,000 MT of corn, with 65,000 expected to be sourced from South America and 68,000 expected to be sourced from South America or South Africa. Japan purchased 103,767 MT of milling wheat via its weekly tender, including 31,600 MT U.S., 49,707 MT Canadian and 22,460 MT Australian. Japan is seeking 65,000 MT of feed wheat and 25,000 MT of feed barley. Tunisia tendered to buy 50,000 MT of soft milling wheat and 75,000 MT of feed barley – both optional origin.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 7:30 a.m. Weekly Export Sales — FAS