Good morning!
Corn and beans modestly higher, wheat mixed overnight... Corn and soybean futures were supported by light corrective buying overnight, while wheat futures posted mixed trade. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans are 2 to 3 cents higher and wheat futures are 4 cents lower to a penny higher. The U.S. dollar index is around 200 points higher and front-month crude oil futures are trading near unchanged.
Juneteenth holiday schedule... Grain and livestock markets will observe normal trading hours today. All markets and government offices are closed on Wednesday for the Juneteenth holiday. Grain markets will resume trading with the overnight session at 7:00 p.m. CT on Wednesday. Livestock markets will reopen at 8:30 a.m. CT on Thursday, June 20.
Corn and soybean CCI ratings decline, HRS wheat improves... USDA rated 72% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent” and 5% “poor” to “very poor.” The soybean crop was rated 70% “good” to “excellent” and 5% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop dropped 4.5 points to 381.0, while the soybean crop fell 3.3 points to 370.0. The biggest declines for both crops were in Illinois. Both corn and soybeans remained rated well above year-ago at this time. USDA rated 76% of the spring wheat crop as “good” to “excellent” and 4% “poor” to “very poor.” On the CCI, spring wheat improved 6.9 points to 382.3, sharply above last year at this time. Click here for details.
Crop Progress Report highlights… Following are highlights from USDA’s crop progress and condition update as of June 16:
- Corn: 72% good/excellent (74% last week); 93% emerged (92% five-year average).
- Soybeans: 70% good/excellent (72% last week); 93% planted (91% average); 82% emerged (79% average).
- Spring wheat: 76% good/excellent (72% last week); 95% emerged (93% average); 4% headed (7% average).
- Cotton: 54% good/excellent (56% last week); 90% planted (91% average); 22% squaring (18% average); 6% setting bolls (3% average).
- Winter wheat: 49% good/excellent (47% last week); 94% headed (91% average); 27% harvested (14% average).
Lawmakers push for higher biofuel levels in 2026 RFS... A bipartisan group of 18 senators is urging EPA to set higher biodiesel and advanced biofuel mandates for 2026 under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). Despite record-high levels for 2023-2025, new evidence suggests the need for significantly higher volumes to match increased production capacity. The senators, led by Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), cited Energy Information Administration (EIA) data indicating current levels are “significantly below production trends.” They highlighted a 66% drop in Renewable Identification Number (RIN) values since last year’s levels were set, leading to facility closures, job losses and disrupted local economies. The lawmakers warned this negative signal threatens investments in renewable fuel production, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). EPA is expected to finalize the 2026 RFS levels later this year.
Farm groups, Big Oil sue Biden administration to halt truck emissions rules... The top U.S. oil and corn industry lobby groups are suing the Biden administration over its plan to slash emissions from heavy-duty vehicles, arguing the regulations will cause economic harm. The suit centers on EPA’s new emissions rules for semi-trucks, buses and other heavy-duty vehicles from 2027 to 2032 in a bid to cut 1 billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions through 2055. “The EPA is forcing a switch to technology that simply does not presently exist for these kinds of vehicles – and even if it were someday possible, it will almost certainly have consequences for your average American,” said Ryan Meyers, senior vice president and general counsel for the American Petroleum Institute (API). The National Corn Growers Association, the American Farm Bureau Federation and the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association joined the lawsuit.
Chinese investors, traders flock to gov’t bonds... China’s sovereign bond futures saw a record closing high Tuesday as the buying frenzy for government debt extended despite scrutiny from authorities. Futures on 10-year notes closed at the highest level on record back to 2015. The benchmark 10-year sovereign bond yield lingered near the lowest level in more than two decades. China’s 30-year government bond yield fell below 2.5% to the lowest in seven weeks. Investors and speculators are flocking to Chinese bonds, pushing down yields, amid safe-haven buying given the uncertain economy and volatile stock market.
Euro zone consumer inflation accelerates... Consumer inflation in the euro zone rose to 2.6% above year-ago in May, according to preliminary data, up from a 2.4% increase the previous month. Among the bloc’s major economies, inflation accelerated in Germany (2.8%), France (2.6%) and Spain (3.8%) but eased slightly in Italy (0.8%). Core inflation, which excludes prices for energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, increased to 2.9% from the more than two-year low of 2.7% the previous month.
H5N1 continues to spread in Iowa dairies... The Iowa Department of Agriculture reported another outbreak of H5N1 virus in a Sioux County dairy herd of 10,000 cows, marking the seventh outbreak in Iowa this month. This is the fifth outbreak in Sioux County, with other reported cases in O’Brien and Plymouth counties.
CDC finds low immunity to H5N1 in U.S. population... Preliminary findings from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicate the American population has little to no pre-existing immunity to the H5N1 virus currently circulating on dairy and poultry farms. CDC’s serology study, based on blood samples from the 2021-22 and 2022-23 flu seasons, showed low antibody levels against H5N1, suggesting most people would be susceptible if the virus became more easily transmissible among humans. The risk to the general public remains low, with only three human infections reported, all in people who worked closely with dairy cows.
CFIA updates guidance on H5N1 in dairy cattle... The Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) has updated its guidance for veterinarians regarding the H5N1 virus in dairy cattle. CFIA will cover laboratory testing fees at any Canadian Animal Health Surveillance Network (CAHSN) lab but will not cover veterinary fees for sample collection or shipment. Non-clinical dairy cattle are now eligible for testing, requiring a milk sample for lactating animals and a nasal swab for non-lactating animals. Veterinarians must report negative test results to the district office if H5N1 is suspected. As of June 14, no H5N1 cases have been confirmed in Canadian dairy cattle.
China’s pork imports continue to decline... China imported 80,000 MT of pork in May, down 11.1% from the previous month and 41.1% less than year-ago. Through the first five months of this year, China imported 430,000 MT of pork, down 47.1% from the same period last year.
Delayed cash cattle trade likely... Last week’s average cash cattle price jumped $3.63 to a record $192.55, eclipsing the previous high set just three weeks prior by $2.46. As would be expected, packers purchased a strong 96,000 head of cattle, including 22,000 head “with time.” That could reduce packers’ willingness to actively bid for cash cattle again this week, especially given record carcass weights for this time of year. But feedlots also won’t likely be in any hurry to move cattle at lower prices. Combined with USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report Friday afternoon, that sets the stage for lengthy cash cattle negotiations.
Cash hog fundamentals weaken... The CME lean hog index is down 71 cents to $90.73 as of June 14, the biggest daily decline since April 9. The pork cutout dropped $2.41 on Monday to $98.94, due mostly to an $11.83 plunge in primal bellies.
Overnight demand news... Japan is seeking 84,667 MT of milling wheat via its weekly tender.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 11:00 a.m. Fruit and Tree Nuts Data — ERS
- 11:00 a.m. Vegetables and Pulses Data — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: June 2024 — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: June 2024 — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Fresh Apples, Grapes, and Pears: World Markets and Trade — FAS