First Thing Today | June 11, 2024

Corn, soybeans and wheat held in tight trading ranges during light, two-sided overnight price action.

Pro Farmer's First Thing Today
Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today
(Pro Farmer)

Good morning!

Varied price tone overnight... Corn, soybeans and wheat held in tight trading ranges during light, two-sided overnight price action. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans are 1 to 3 cents lower, SRW wheat is 2 to 4 cents higher, HRW wheat is 1 to 2 cents lower and HRS wheat is 2 to 3 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is up nearly 200 points and front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower.

Corn, spring wheat CCI ratings slip; soybean crop starts strong... USDA rated 74% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent,” down one percentage point from the previous week. The amount of corn rated “poor” to “very poor” increased one point to 5%. The initial soybean crop rating was 72% “good” to “excellent” and 4% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop slipped 0.3 point to 385.2, though that was still 24.3 points above year above. Soybeans started the growing season with a 373.2 CCI rating, 22.8 points above year-ago at this time. USDA rated 72% of the spring wheat crop as “good” to “excellent,” down two points for the week. The amount of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” increased one point to 3%. The spring wheat CCI rating of 375.4 declined 3.2 points from last week. Click here for details.

Crop Progress Report highlights… Following are highlights from USDA’s crop progress and condition update as of June 9:

· Corn: 74% good/excellent (75% last week); 95% planted (95% five-year average); 85% emerged (84% average).

· Soybeans: 72% good/excellent (69% last year); 87% planted (84% average); 70% emerged (66% average).

· Spring wheat: 72% good/excellent (74% last week); 98% planted (96% average); 87% emerged (83% average).

· Cotton: 56% good/excellent (61% last week); 80% planted (80% average); 14% squaring (12% average).

· Winter wheat: 47% good/excellent (49% last week); 89% headed (86% average); 12% harvested (6% average).

Russian grain exporters see growth potential in India, China... Russian grain exporters see potential to increase shipments of grains and pulses to India and China while continuing to focus on their traditional markets in the Middle East and North Africa, the ag ministry said. The comments came after meeting with exporters following Turkey’s decision to halt wheat imports from late June to at least mid-October, one of its top export markets.

Cordonnier raises Brazilian corn crop forecast... South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his Brazilian corn crop estimate 2 MMT to 114 MMT. He said, “For several weeks, I have been thinking that my corn estimate was too low, but I hesitated to increase it while much of central Brazil was experiencing dry weather. Now that 10% of the corn has been harvested and the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) has increased the corn yield estimate for Mato Grosso, I decided to increase the corn estimate.”

Coceral raises EU + UK wheat crop forecast... Grain trade association Coceral raised its forecast for this year’s soft wheat output in the European Union and Britain by 400,000 MT to 134.5 MMT, though that would still be 4% below 2023 due to damage from excessive wetness. Coceral cut its barley production forecast for the EU + UK to 59.9 MMT, down from 61.2 MMT previously, though that would still be 10% above last year.

How will Senate Ag ranking member’s farm bill framework rank?... A farm bill framework that was largely written months ago is ready for its release this morning via Senate Ag Committee ranking member John Boozman (R-Ark.). It’s widely expected to closely follow the GOP House farm bill measure pushed by House Ag Chair Glen “GT” Thompson (R-Pa.). It will be interesting to see how much funding details the Senate GOP unveiling provides.

House Ag Appropriations Subcommittee GOP releases FY 2025 Agriculture appropriations bill... The bill, which will be considered late this afternoon, provides a total discretionary allocation of $25.873 billion, $355 million below the 2024 level and $2.688 billion below the president’s budget request. It includes $6.75 billion for the Food and Drug Administration and $345 million for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, rejecting the administration’s user fee proposal for CFTC. The bill directs USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service to reinstate several reports previously halted due to insufficient funding, including the July Cattle Inventory Report, the cotton objective yield survey and all county estimates for crops and livestock.

Contentious U.S. port negotiations... Contract negotiations at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports turned contentious before they even began, the Wall Street Journal reports. The dockworkers’ union, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), canceled the opening bargaining session and renewed a strike threat, affecting over 45,000 dockworkers from Maine to Texas. This comes ahead of the current agreement’s expiration on Sept. 30. The union opposes moves toward automation at container terminals, citing an automated tool at the Port of Mobile in Alabama as a reason for their withdrawal. The potential standoff has political implications, with the contract expiring shortly before the presidential election, potentially impacting the American economy.

Canadian border agents postpone strike, averting trade disruption for now... The union representing Canadian border agents has postponed potential strike action until next Wednesday, maintaining the flow of billions of dollars in daily cross-border trade for now. The Public Service Alliance of Canada (PSAC) set this new deadline as mediation with the government over a new labor agreement continues. The union had initially threatened to start a work-to-rule campaign by Friday afternoon if a new deal wasn’t reached. The PSAC represents approximately 9,000 employees at the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA). The government has the option to legislate workers back to their jobs if deemed necessary, although such action is controversial. Both parties are committed to finding a resolution that avoids labor action and maintains the integrity of border services.

From Prop 12 to Measure J, California strikes the ag sector... The proposed measure, known as Measure J, seeks to prohibit large poultry and livestock operations, claiming they pollute the environment and mistreat animals through close confinement. If passed, Sonoma would be the first county in the U.S. to implement such a ban. Supporters argue that residents should have a say in local agricultural practices, and they have gathered enough signatures to place the measure on the ballot. Farmers argue it would force many to either downsize or shut down, leading to significant economic repercussions. Past statewide initiatives in California, such as Proposition 2 and Proposition 12, have shown voter support for animal welfare measures, suggesting that similar sentiments might influence the upcoming vote. The outcome of Measure J could set a precedent for other regions and influence future legislative actions on animal farming practices both within and beyond Sonoma County.

Another small cattle slaughter expected... Last week’s federally inspected slaughter totaled 614,000 head, the smallest since 2016 and came after a holiday-shortened tally of 540,000 head during the week of Memorial Day. Slaughter is expected to be light again this week as packers manage a tight supply of market-ready animals. The light slaughters are supporting wholesale beef prices, despite hefty carcass weights, which continue to run well above average.

Cash hog index, pork cutout slip... The CME lean hog index is down 23 cents to $91.52 as of June 7, the third straight daily decline. However, the index has dropped just 54 cents during that span. The pork cutout value declined 48 cents on Monday to $100.43, as all cuts except hams weakened.

Overnight demand news... South Korea purchased 50,000 MT of U.S. milling wheat and passed on offers for 40,000 MT of Canadian wheat because prices were too high. Taiwan tendered to buy up to 65,000 MT of corn that can be sourced from the U.S., Brazil, Argentina or South Africa. Japan is seeking 109,126 MT of milling wheat in its weekly tender. Egypt tendered to buy an unspecified amount of wheat from multiple sources.

See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.

Today’s reports

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