Good morning!
Grains firmer overnight... Corn, soybeans and wheat posted mild gains during the overnight session. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading around a penny higher, soybeans are 2 to 6 cents higher and wheat futures are 4 to 7 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is around 130 points higher and front-month crude oil futures are about 30 cents lower.
Trump vows action to end EV ‘mandate’ on day one... Former President Donald Trump used his nomination speech to take aim at President Joe Biden’s electric vehicle (EV) policies, vowing to action against them on his first day in office. Trump’s remarks on EVs came just moments before he criticized what he said was trillions of dollars of wasteful spending “having to do with the green new scam.” He said he would instead direct the money to projects like roads, bridges and dams, though he didn’t provide a specific plan. Trump claims EVs will help China and Mexico while hurting American auto workers. Trump reiterated an openness for Chinese automakers to build cars in the U.S. as a way to create jobs and boost the economy.
China facing soybean glut... China is facing an oversupply of soybeans as record purchases boost stockpiles at a time when soymeal demand remains subdued, Reuters reports. Importers have ramped up soybean deliveries, fearing a return to a trade war with the U.S., despite poor crush margins and weak demand from the livestock sector. At the same time, Chinese consumer demand for pork has waned. The soybean surplus threatens to curb China’s appetite for imports in the September to December period, the peak U.S. shipping period.
French wheat ratings plunge to 8-year low, harvest lags... France’s ag ministry rated the country’s wheat crop as 52% good or excellent as of July 15, down five points from the previous week and the lowest since 2016 when France had the smallest crop since the 1980s. Harvest reached 14%, sharply behind the five-year average of 43% for the date.
Study: Cleaner jets needed by 2035 to reach net-zero goal... The aviation industry is running out of time to introduce cleaner planes needed to eliminate net carbon emissions from air travel by 2050, according to a study released Thursday. New models that emit net zero carbon dioxide throughout decades of use will need to be flying by the mid-2030s for aviation to reach its mid-century goal, the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) said in the report. The climate-change research group called on plane makers to accelerate plans to develop zero-emissions planes, especially those powered by hydrogen. Its study highlighted the decades-long lifecycles of commercial aircraft, a factor that contributes to making aviation one of the hardest industries to decarbonize. By the time they’re retired, passenger planes already in service as of 2023 are expected to release about half of the carbon dioxide emissions available within the framework of the mid-century net-zero goal, according to ICCT. New aircraft will use up the rest by 2032 to 2037, depending on how quickly the industry adopts sustainable aviation fuel blends and other fuel-efficient technologies.
ECB survey: Euro zone inflation will reach target by 2025... The European Central Bank’s quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters, an input in policy deliberations, sees inflation slowing even quicker than ECB staff predict and expects price growth then to steady around the bank’s target. Inflation this year could average 2.4%, in line with the survey’s prediction three months ago and could then slow to 2.0% next year, both below ECB’s own in-house projections. By 2026, inflation could dip to 1.9% but over the long term – defined as 2028 – it will be at 2%.
Smaller placements expected in Cattle on Feed Report... Analysts expect USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report this afternoon to show the large feedlot (1,000-plus head) inventory up 1.1% from year-ago at 11.327 million head, snapping a two-month string of year-on-year declines. After a 4.3% jump in placements during May, this month’s report is expected to show a 2.8% decline in the number of cattle moved into feedlots during June. Marketings are expected to decline 8.3% from June 2023.
Cash cattle weaken... The plunge in cattle futures Thursday caused feedlots to sell cash cattle in the northern dressed market around $2.00 below last week after trade in the Southern Plains at steady prices earlier in the week. Barring an upturn today, the average cash price will decline again this week.
Cash hog index rises again... The CME lean hog index is up 47 cents to $89.27 as of July 17, extending the recent upturn to four consecutive days. August lean hog futures finished Thursday at a $2.105 premium to today’s cash quote. The pork cutout value firmed 93 cents to $100.25, while movement improved to 303.2 loads.
Overnight demand news... Egypt purchased 20,000 MT of sunflower oil.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
· 2:00 p.m. Cattle on Feed — NASS
· 2:00 p.m. Peanut Prices — NASS
· 2:30 p.m. Commitments of Traders — CFTC