Good morning!
Soybeans lead overnight price gains... Corn, soybeans and wheat recouped a portion of last Friday’s sharp losses during the overnight session, led by double-digit gains in the soybean market. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 4 to 5 cents higher, soybeans are mostly 12 to 13 cents higher and wheat is 4 to 6 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is more than 800 points lower and front-month crude oil futures are around 40 cents higher.
Argentina, far southern Brazil to remain dry... Argentina’s main crop areas, along with far southern Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay will be dry this week with seasonal temperatures. Argentina is expected to remain dry next week as temps turn hotter, increasing crop stress, while some relief rains should move into southern Brazil. Central Brazil will continue to see active rainfall.
India’s wheat price hit record-high... India’s wheat prices jumped to a record high on Monday due to dwindling supplies amid robust demand from flour mills that are struggling to secure wheat to operate at full capacity, industry officials told Reuters. In December, New Delhi lowered the limit on wheat stocks that traders and millers can hold to help boost availability and moderate prices. But the curbs failed to bring down prices, which were trading around 33,000 rupees ($384.66) per metric ton in New Delhi, up from 24,500 rupees in April and far above the government fixed minimum support price of 22,750 rupees for last season’s crop. The state-run Food Corporation of India is selling 100,000 MT of wheat to bulk consumers every week, but this is not sufficient to meet demand.
Indonesia plans to regulate feed wheat imports... Indonesia plans to impose a quota on wheat imports for animal feed to protect local corn farmers, its senior minister for food affairs said. The government soon will hold a meeting to set the feed wheat import quota.
Thai rice exports expected to fall 25%... Thailand’s rice exports will likely drop by 25% in 2025 from last year, the Thai Rice Exporters Association, told Reuters. More competition from India and less demand from Indonesia is attributed to the expected sharp decline.
The week ahead in Washington... The House and Senate are both in session, though no hearings are scheduled as organizational efforts for the 119th Congress continue. On Thursday, Washington will host a service for former President Jimmy Carter, which is a National Day of Mourning and a federal government closure. The economic focus this week will be Wednesday’s minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Friday’s employment data for December. USDA will release a barrage of reports on Friday, including the Annual Production Summary, monthly Supply & Demand Report, Quarterly Grain Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings.
Johnson commits to fast-tracking Trump’s legislative agenda by May… House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), in an interview on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures, announced plans to pass a sweeping bill addressing President-elect Donald Trump’s priorities, including border security, tax cuts and deregulation, by May. Johnson said he wants this bill done by the House the first week in April. Channeling Trump lingo, Johnson has called it “one big, beautiful bill.” Using the Senate’s reconciliation process, Republicans aim to bypass Democratic opposition, but internal GOP divisions over the bill’s scope and timeline may pose challenges.
Trump tariffs plan update... Trump has proposed adding tariffs to imports to supplement lowering taxes for Americans, although many economists have opposed this idea. Trump’s aides are exploring a tariff plan targeting critical imports from all countries, according to the Washington Post. The proposal represents a shift from the broader 10% to 20% universal tariffs suggested during Trump’s campaign. Economists warn such measures could inflate consumer prices and disrupt global trade patterns.
Thune signals uncertainty over confirmation of Trump Cabinet picks... New Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) expressed uncertainty about whether all of President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominees will secure confirmation. Speaking on NBC’s Meet the Press, Thune emphasized a commitment to a “fair process” for the nominees but underscored the Senate’s constitutional role to “advise and consent,” particularly on national security appointments. Thune refrained from endorsing specific nominees, including controversial picks such as Kash Patel for FBI director, Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence, and Pete Hegseth for Secretary of Defense. While he acknowledged being impressed by some candidates, he stressed the importance of rigorous questioning and transparency during the confirmation process. The Senate leader anticipates that Trump will swiftly secure key appointments but emphasized that nominees will need to demonstrate their qualifications to both the Senate and the public. Hearings on several Cabinet nominees, including Brooke Rollins, Trump’s USDA secretary nominee, will take place the week of Jan. 13.
Trudeau expected to resign amid political turmoil... Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to announce his resignation as Liberal Party leader in the coming days, with reports suggesting the announcement could come as early as today. This development precedes a critical national caucus meeting scheduled for Wednesday. The resignation is expected before the caucus meeting to avoid appearing as though Trudeau is being ousted by his Members of Parliament. It is unclear if Trudeau will step down as Prime Minister immediately or remain until a new leader is selected. Trudeau’s resignation could trigger calls for an early election to address the political landscape amid a new U.S. administration.
China scrambles to shore up yuan, stock market amid jitters... China’s central bank and main stock exchanges rushed to defend a tumbling yuan and falling stock markets on Monday, trying to soothe investor concerns about Beijing’s ability to revive the economy and ease worries about U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House. China’s tightly controlled yuan weakened to its lowest in 16 months while the blue-chip stock index fell to its weakest level since the end of September. China’s stock exchanges asked large mutual funds to restrict their selling of stocks at the beginning of the year, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) could issue more yuan bills in Hong Kong in January, state-owned news outlet Yicai reported. Financial News, a central bank publication, said PBOC has the tools to defend yuan depreciation.
Euro zone economy ticked up but still contracted in December... HCOB’s final composite purchasing managers index compiled by S&P Global rose to 49.6 in December from November’s 48.3. That was just above a 49.5 preliminary estimate but remained in contraction territory below 50.0. The bloc’s three biggest economies — Germany, France and Italy — all reported reduced activity.
U.S. ban on Mexican feeder cattle imports remains in effect amid NWS concerns... The U.S. ban on feeder cattle imports from Mexico, implemented in late November due to the detection of New World screwworm (NWS) in Chiapas, Mexico, remains in place. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) temporarily halted imports of live animals from or transiting through Mexico, citing the severe threat posed by NWS, which infests the living tissue of warm-blooded animals. APHIS is collaborating with Mexico and Central American partners to control the spread of NWS and reestablish a biological barrier. However, the ban will remain in effect until new screening protocols for safe trade are implemented.
Feedlots continue to have leverage... Packers paid up for cash cattle for a seventh consecutive week and last week’s average price likely topped the record from July 2024. Despite negative margins, packers have had to raise cash bids to entice feedlots to sell cattle. Feedlots remain well positioned, though packers have fresh contracted supplies available this week.
Cash hog index marks new seasonal low... The CME lean hog index is down another 87 cents to $83.12 as of Jan. 2, the fifth straight daily decline and below the December low, signaling a seasonal low has not yet been posted. February lean hog futures finished last Friday $2.345 below today’s cash quote.
Weekend demand news... Exporters reported no tenders or sales.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 10:00 a.m. Weekly Export Inspections — AMS
- 2:00 p.m. Dairy Products — NASS