Good morning!
Corn and beans weaker, wheat modestly firmer overnight... Corn and soybean futures pulled back from Wednesday’s strong gains overnight, while wheat pivoted around unchanged. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans are 5 to 9 cents lower and wheat futures are fractionally to 3 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is trading just above unchanged and front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower.
Weekly Export Sales Report out this morning... For the week ended Jan. 23, traders expect:
| 2024-25 expectations (in MT) | Last week (in MT) | |
| Corn | 850,000-1,800,000 | 1,660,968 |
| Wheat | 150,000-500,000 | 164,837 |
| Soybeans | 450,000-1,700,000 | 1,491,761 |
| Soymeal | 100,000-400,000 | 208,739 |
| Soyoil | 4,000-20,000 | 2,890 |
SovEcon lowers Russian wheat export forecast... Ag consultancy SovEcon lowered its 2024-25 Russian wheat export forecast by 900,000 MT to 42.8 MMT. The revision reflects the persistently slow shipment pace and challenging export conditions. USDA cut its Russian wheat export forecast by 1 MMT earlier this month to 46 MMT.
Ukraine grain exports continue to outpace year-ago... As of Jan. 29, Ukraine’s 2024-25 grain exports stood sat 25.35 MMT, up 2.2 MMT (9.5%) from the same period last year. Exports included 10.7 MMT of wheat (up 1.67 MMT from last year), 12.17 MMT of corn (down 300,000 MT) and 2.06 MMT of barley (up 660,000 MT).
India’s wheat at risk as warm February ahead... India is forecast to see above-average temperatures in February, with key winter crop-growing states likely to see maximum temperatures up to 5 degrees Celsius above average, two weather bureau sources said. Maximum and minimum temperatures in northern, central and eastern states are likely to be above normal in February, said a senior official at the India Meteorological Department. Higher temperatures during the grain formation stage could reduce wheat yields for the fourth straight year, trimming overall production.
Dreyfus says Brazil soymeal cargo returned from port for reprocessing... A cargo of Louis Dreyfus Company soymeal destined for export from the southern Brazilian port of Paranagua was returned for reprocessing at one of the company’s local plants, the firm told Reuters. A person with knowledge of the matter said the soymeal was sent by trucks to the port and subsequently rejected last week for containing impurities. The source said the soymeal cargo’s origin was a Louis Dreyfus factory in Ponta Grossa in the state of Parana.
GOP lawmakers target SNAP overpayments with new bill... Iowa Republicans Rep. Randy Feenstra and Sen. Joni Ernst introduced the Snap Back Inaccurate SNAP Payments Act to reduce federal spending by tightening oversight of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). The bill aims to eliminate the $54 error tolerance threshold, require states to recollect overpayments and hold states accountable for payment errors. The move follows USDA data revealing an 11.68% error rate in SNAP for fiscal year (FY) 2023, leading to $10 billion in overpayments. Republican lawmakers argue for stricter oversight, while USDA notes that most errors stem from unintentional mistakes rather than fraud. The bill reflects broader GOP efforts to curb waste in federal welfare programs.
Euro zone economy stalls in Q4 2024... The euro zone economy unexpectedly stalled in the fourth quarter of 2024, marking its weakest performance of the year, following 0.4% growth in third quarter. The bloc’s two largest economies saw surprising contractions, with Germany’s GDP shrinking 0.2% and France’s declining 0.1%. Italy stagnated for a second consecutive quarter, while Ireland’s GDP fell by 1.3%, and Austria’s economy remained flat.
Euro zone economic sentiment rebounds in January... The monthly economic sentiment index in the 20 countries sharing the euro rose to 95.2 in January from December’s reading of 93.7. Industrial sentiment remained negative at -12.9 but improved from -14.1 in December. Sentiment in the services sector improved to 6.6 from 5.7 in December. Consumer confidence rose 0.3 point to -14.2 in January, while consumer inflation expectations fell to 20.2 from 21.2 the previous month.
Cargill to close Arkansas turkey plant amid workforce cuts... Cargill announced it will close its turkey processing facility in Springdale, Arkansas, on Aug. 1. Processing will shift to plants in Missouri and Virginia. Despite the closure, Cargill emphasized that turkey remains a key part of its protein portfolio and pledged to fulfill contracts with growers. The move is part of a broader effort to reduce its global workforce by 5% following declining earnings in its meat, grain and oilseed sectors. Other poultry companies have also closed plants in recent years.
Slow cash cattle negotiations... Packers have been slow to establish cash cattle bids for the week, while feedlots want higher prices again. After surging $24.40 during a 10-week span of gains, cash cattle prices may decline this week, though it’s unlikely they will fall much as feedlots are current.
Cash hog index gaining momentum... The CME lean hog index is up another 48 cents to $82.59 as of Jan. 28, marking the biggest daily gain during the rise over the past three weeks. The index is now $2.16 off the Jan. 9 seasonal low.
Overnight demand news... Japan purchased 89,134 MT of milling wheat via its weekly tender, including 29,070 MT U.S. and 60,064 MT Canadian.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 7:30 a.m. Weekly Export Sales — FAS
- 2:00 p.m. Slaughter Weekly — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Citrus: World Markets and Trade — FAS