Good morning!
Grains face pressure overnight... Grain markets traded lower overnight, led by double-digit losses in soybeans. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 3 to 5 cents lower, soybeans are 11 to 14 cents lower and wheat futures are 4 to 9 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is around $1.75 higher and front-month crude oil futures are about 75 cents lower.
Exchange cuts Argentine corn crop estimate, warns soybean crop will be reduced... The Rosario Grain Exchange cut its Argentine corn production forecast to 48 MMT from a previous range of 50 MMT to 51 MMT due to drought impacts. The exchange also said soybean production would be below its forecast range of 53 MMT to 53.5 MMT, without providing a new estimate, noting hot and dry conditions ruled out “the high productivity scenarios that were considered until recently.”
Weekly Export Sales Report out this morning... For the week ended Jan. 9, traders expect:
| 2024-25 expectations (in MT) | Last week (in MT) | |
| Corn | 500,000-1,000,000 | 444,950 |
| Wheat | 150,000-400,000 | 111,309 |
| Soybeans | 300,000-800,000 | 288,671 |
| Soymeal | 150,000-300,000 | 144,918 |
| Soyoil | 10,000-50,000 | 34,634 |
Vilsack comments on CI guidelines re: 45Z changes... USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack said preliminary calculations show farmers under USDA’s rule have the potential to get carbon intensity (CI) scores per bushel significantly lower, including down about 70% for corn grown in a part of Illinois and about 90% for sorghum in an area of Kansas. The new guidance allows farmers to use climate-smart practices individually or in combination, unlike prior rules around the now expired “40B” tax credit for production of sustainable aviation fuel, which involved bundling specific practices. Such bundling proved impractical in certain regions. The new guidelines also add sorghum to the list of crops, rather than only corn and soybeans as part of a test program last year.
Strategie Grains raises EU wheat crop forecast... Consultancy Strategie Grains raised its 2025-26 soft wheat production forecast for the European Union, citing higher-than-expected plantings in Germany. The firm now projects the 2025 EU wheat crop at 127.2 MMT, up 600,000 MT from its initial forecast and 13 MMT above last year. Strategie Grains noted “soft wheat crops are in fair condition across the EU at mid-winter, and above all in better condition than at the same time last year.”
Argentine government accused of skewing auction to upgrade Parana River... President Javier Milei’s administration started a tender process in November for a 30-year contract to keep bulk carriers sailing up and down the Parana River. Dredging companies have been waiting to bid on a new contract after the last one expired in 2021. They have until Feb. 12 to apply. But the tender process is coming under fierce criticism, including from two suitors that accuse Argentina’s government of favoring the current contractor. DEME of Belgium and Rohde Nielsen A/S from Denmark allege the terms of the auction suit rival Jan de Nul NV to such an extent that it’s almost impossible for anyone else to compete. The bidding process is also being criticized by Argentine congressmen and shipping and port authorities.
Soyoil supplanting palm oil in India’s imports... India’s palm oil imports are set to plunge to a near five-year low in January amid negative refining margins as its premium drives buyers to more competitively priced soyoil, government and industry officials told Reuters. Two vegoil brokers and a shipping company that compiles data on vessels lined up to unload at ports estimated that imports could range between 340,000 MT and 370,000 MT this month, which would be the lowest monthly total since March 2020. Soyoil, which traditionally commands a premium over palm oil, is now offered at a discount. India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.
Philippines sees no need to hike rice imports... The Philippines sees no need to increase rice imports for now although there are concerns about the prices businesses are charging consumers for the national staple, the agriculture minister said. Instead, he said the government would consider a recommendation from the national price council to declare a “food emergency” and release buffer stocks to help bring down retail prices. The state-run National Food Authority, which manages the country’s grain supply, could start selling its 300,000 MT of rice stocks in February. The Philippines is expecting to import around 4.3 MMT to 4.5 MMT of rice this year, lower than 4.7 MMT in 2024.
U.S. issues fresh round of sanctions against Russia... The U.S. on Wednesday imposed hundreds of sanctions targeting Russia, seeking to increase pressure on Moscow in the Biden administration’s final days and protect some sanctions previously imposed. The U.S. State and Treasury departments imposed sanctions on over 250 targets, including some based in China. As part of the action, Treasury imposed new curbs on almost 100 entities that were already under sanctions, potentially complicating any future efforts to remove the measures. The new sanctions are issued under an executive order that a senior Treasury official said requires Congress to be notified before any of the actions can be reversed.
Fed Beige Book highlights economic growth amid tariff mentions... The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book noted an uptick in mentions of tariffs as President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration approaches. Economic activity grew “slightly to moderately” across the United States in late November and December, driven by strong holiday sales, according to the Fed’s survey of regional business contacts.
UK economy shows modest growth in November... The British economy grew 0.1% in November, recovering from a 0.1% contraction in both October and September. However, that was shy of the 0.2% growth economists expected. GDP expanded 1% annually in November, slightly below the 1.1% growth in October.
USDA updates list of Central American countries affected by screwworm... Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama and Costa Rica have been added to the list of regions affected by screwworm, as detailed in recent Federal Register notices. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) explained that regions are added based on screwworm detections reported by veterinary officials, the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) or other credible sources. These updates reflect actions primarily taken in 2024 or earlier and do not indicate new screwworm findings in the listed countries. Currently, 124 countries are on the affected list, with Mexico temporarily restricted due to screwworm.
Rival exporters accuse Canada of dumping dairy products... New Zealand, Australian and U.S. dairy groups have accused Canada of underpricing its milk products and dumping them on global markets. These groups claim Canada’s milk pricing mechanisms incentivize surplus disposal at artificially low prices, undermining international markets. New Zealand has initiated trade negotiations with Canada under the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, while all three nations urge their governments to hold Canada accountable for its trade practices under World Trade Organization and regional agreements. Global milk production is expected to rise in 2025, intensifying competition and trade disputes, with Canadian policies drawing sharp criticism from rivals who advocate for coordinated international action.
Study shows Iowa’s pork industry is a pillar of economic strength... A recent study for the Iowa Pork Producers Association highlights the pivotal role of Iowa’s pork industry in the state’s economy. As the nation’s top pork producer, Iowa contributes 33% of the U.S. hog inventory and supports over 120,000 jobs. In 2024 alone, the pork sector added $15.4 billion in economic value to Iowa, generating $8 billion in household income and $40.5 billion in total sales. The study was conducted by Decision Innovation Solutions (DIS) in 2024. Beyond economic benefits, Iowa’s pork industry emphasizes sustainability. Hog manure enriches soil, reducing reliance on synthetic fertilizers, while the use of local feedstuffs bolsters efficiency. Iowa pig farms exemplify a self-sustaining agricultural model that supports local communities and strengthens the U.S. food supply chain.
Steady at worst cash cattle trade... Cash cattle have traded at mostly steady prices so far this week. While that signals the eight-week string of cash gains may be stalling, feedlots are current on marketings and won’t likely be willing sellers at prices less than recent levels.
Cash hog index rises again... The CME lean hog index is up 11 cents to $81.10 as of Jan. 14, the third straight daily increase. The pork cutout rose 62 cents on Wednesday to $90.83 as gains in ribs, hams, picnics and bellies more than offset losses in loins and butts.
Overnight demand news... Japan purchased 132,888 MT of milling wheat via its weekly tender, including 48,308 MT U.S., 56,520 MT Canadian and 28,060 MT Australian.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 7:30 a.m. Weekly Export Sales — FAS
- 7:30 a.m. Extended Weather — NWS
- 2:00 p.m. Slaughter Weekly — NASS