First Thing Today | January 15, 2025

Corn and soybeans rebounded from Tuesday’s losses overnight, while wheat faced light selling pressure.

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Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today
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Corn and beans mildly firmer, wheat weaker overnight... Corn and soybeans rebounded from Tuesday’s losses overnight, while wheat faced light selling pressure. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn and soybean futures are trading fractionally to a penny higher, while wheat futures are 1 to 4 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is around 170 points lower and front-month crude oil futures are modestly firmer.

All-time high NOPA soy crush expected for December... Analysts expect the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) to report December soybean crush reached a record 205.5 million bushels. If realized, that would be up 6.4% from November and 5.2% above year-ago. It would also top the current all-time high of 200 million bu. from October. The report will include crush data from two facilities that opened last year in Cherryvale, Kansas, and Casselton, North Dakota, for the first time, NOPA told Reuters. Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of Dec. 31 were projected to rise to 1.253 billion pounds.

USDA to announce biofuel, bioeconomy initiatives... USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack today will unveil updates on USDA’s efforts to expand revenue and market opportunities for biofuel producers via climate-smart agriculture markets. Key initiatives include domestic biofuels and sustainable aviation fuel, which aim to bolster opportunities for American agriculture and rural communities in the long term.

U.S. importers rush shipments from China as tariff threat looms... U.S. imports from China finished 2024 strong as some companies stockpiled shipments ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to impose new tariffs that could revive a trade war between the two countries. The equivalent of 451,000 40-foot containers of goods from China landed at U.S. ports in December, a 14.5% jump from year-ago, according to trade data supplier Descartes Systems Group. U.S. imports from China rose 15% from the previous year in 2024.

CEOs growing more concerned about trade wars amid rising geopolitical tensions... A new survey by The Conference Board reveals that global CEOs are significantly more worried about trade wars than they were a year ago, Axios Markets co-author Felix Salmon reports. As businesses brace for President-elect Trump’s administration, concerns about foreign investment restrictions and conflicts in the Asia-Pacific are escalating. Of note: These geopolitical fears haven’t undermined overall economic optimism. Notably, only 40% of U.S. CEOs now see the risk of an economic downturn or recession as a high-impact issue, down from 55% last year.

U.S. bans imports from 37 Chinese firms over forced labor charge... The Biden administration added 37 companies from China’s mining, solar and textile sectors to its list of those banned from exporting to the U.S. due to alleged forced labor practices in the Xinjiang region. The additions represent the largest single expansion of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act list since the law was passed in 2021, raising the total number of companies banned to 144. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun called the law “evil,” and said the bans on the companies amounted to interference in the country’s internal affairs, adding Beijing would “take resolute measures to firmly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises.”

China’s central bank pumps near-record level of cash into financial system... The People’s Bank of China injected a net 958.4 billion yuan ($131 billion) of cash via seven-day reverse repurchase agreements in daily open market operations, the second highest on record in data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 2004. The operation is aimed at offsetting the impact of the expiration of medium-term lending, peak tax season and cash demand before Lunar New Year holidays, keeping banking system liquidity ample. The central bank has also been using liquidity measures to expand its support for the yuan, which has come under pressure from a strengthening dollar. It sold a record 60 billion yuan of six-month bills in Hong Kong on Wednesday, a move which will drain liquidity offshore to support demand for the currency.

Chinese credit demand surges in December but loans fell for the first time in 13 years in 2024... Chinese banks extended 990 billion yuan in new loans in December, sharply above 580 billion in November, which was the lowest since 2012. Credit demand surged in December as authorities implemented several stimulus measures, including increased bond issuance and enhanced overall credit support. However, the figure was slightly below 1,170 billion yuan a year earlier. Total social financing, which is a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy as it includes off-balance sheet forms of financing such as initial public offerings, loans from trust companies and bond sales, rose to 2,860 billion yuan from 2,340 billion in November. For all of 2024, new yuan loans totaled 18.09 trillion, below 22.75 trillion in 2023, representing the first annual drop in 13 years.

FTC prepares lawsuit against Deere over repair practices... The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is preparing to file a lawsuit against Deere & Co. for allegedly violating U.S. competition laws by restricting access to key repair information and diagnostic tools, according to a Bloomberg report. While FTC commissioners have yet to vote on the matter, the suit could be filed as early as this week. The agency’s investigation, ongoing since 2021, claims Deere’s equipment design often necessitates proprietary software available only to authorized dealers, limiting farmers and independent repair shops’ ability to perform repairs. Deere had previously agreed in January 2023, through an accord with the American Farm Bureau Federation, to expand access to repair tools, but concerns over compliance persist.

Canada approves Bunge/Viterra merger with conditions... The Canadian government approved with conditions the merger deal between Bunge and the Glencore-backed company Viterra. To complete the deal, Bunge must divest six grain elevators in Western Canada and agree to invest at least C$520 million in Canada within the next five years. “This decision underscores the importance of promoting economic growth in Canada, while maintaining robust oversight to protect competition and the public interest,” Transport and Internal Trade Minister Anita Anand said.

Vietnam’s rice exports expected to fall sharply in 2025... Vietnam’s rice exports are forecast at 7.5 MMT this year, the chairman of the Vietnam Food Association said, down 17% from a record 9.04 MMT in 2024. Rice shipments from Vietnam this year will face challenges of possible increased supplies from India and Indonesia’s efforts to cut down on its imports, the association’s chairman Nguyen Ngoc Nam told Reuters. However, he noted export prospects to China “are looking brighter.”

Early cash cattle activity gives hopes of steady/firmer trade... Light cash cattle trade occurred at the top of last week’s price range in the northern market on Tuesday, suggesting prices may be steady/firmer again this week. Uncertain is whether this was cleanup sales from last week or fresh business. Either way, it doesn’t appear prices will fall much if any this week.

Traders build hog futures’ premiums to cash index... The CME lean hog index is up 23 cents to $80.99 as of Jan. 13, the second straight daily gain after the recent string of losses. February lean hog futures finished Tuesday $2.635 above today’s cash quote, suggesting traders sense a seasonal low is in place and cash prices will firm over the next month.

Overnight demand news... Taiwan purchased 65,000 MT of U.S. corn. Jordan tendered to buy up to 120,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat.

See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.

Today’s reports