Good morning!
Varied tone in grains overnight... Soybeans, HRW wheat and HRS wheat posted gains overnight, while corn and SRW wheat have weakened early this morning. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans are 4 to 6 cents higher, SRW wheat is around a penny lower, HRW wheat is 1 to 3 cents higher and HRS wheat is mostly 2 cents higher. Gold futures posted a record high overnight, topping $3,500 per ounce, while front-month crude oil futures are more than $1.00 higher and the U.S. dollar index is up around 160 points.
Klobuchar: U.S. farmers starting to push back on Trump tariffs... Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), the top Democrat on the Senate Ag Committee, said during a CNN State of the Union interview Sunday that farmers are “starting to show up and speak out.” She added: “Regular small businesses and farmers who have just tight margins and need a market for their soybeans out of southern Minnesota. They are not going to be able to absorb this. And they know that.”
Trump pressures Japan on rice tariffs; Ishiba pushes back... President Donald Trump has accused Japan of imposing a 700% tariff on U.S. rice, using it to justify reciprocal tariffs on Japanese imports. During recent trade talks, Trump demanded greater access for American rice and other agricultural goods. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba responded firmly, vowing not to “keep conceding to U.S. demands” and defending Japan’s need to protect sensitive sectors like agriculture. While acknowledging high tariffs on rice above quota levels, Ishiba clarified that Japan maintains a tariff-free quota for staple rice.
Thai PM says U.S. tariff negotiations postponed to review ‘issues’... Thailand’s trade talks with Washington originally scheduled for Wednesday were postponed because the U.S. has asked Bangkok to review important issues, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra said. “We’re not too slow and we are reviewing issues, including our tariffs that may be adjusted appropriately,” Paetongtarn said, adding that Thai agriculture exports and additional imports were being examined. “We are protecting the agricultural interests as much as possible,” she said, adding negotiations should be mutually beneficial.
Sheinbaum: No deal yet with Trump on auto, metal tariffs... Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said no agreement has been reached with Trump on proposed U.S. tariffs targeting Mexican goods, including a 25% levy on imported vehicles and metals. While Trump described their recent conversation as “very productive,” Sheinbaum emphasized that negotiations are still ongoing at both the presidential and ministerial levels. Mexico’s economy ministry is pushing for progress ahead of the May 3 deadline, when U.S. auto part tariffs are set to take effect.
Deterioration in top HRW, SRW producers fuel overall CCI declines... USDA rated the winter wheat crop 45% “good” to “excellent” and 21% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop declined 3.4 points to 315.8 amid a 3-point drop in top producer Kansas. The SRW crop dropped 1.4 points to 368.8, as a 4.4-point decline in top producer Illinois offset improvements in the other states. CCI ratings for both crops remain below year-ago. Click here for full details.
Crop Progress Report highlights… Following are highlights from USDA’s crop progress and condition update as of April 20:
- Winter wheat: 45% good/excellent (47% last week); 15% headed (13% average).
- Corn: 12% planted (10% average); 2% emerged (2% average).
- Soybeans: 8% planted (5% average).
- Spring wheat: 17% planted (12% average); 2% emerged (2% average).
- Cotton: 11% planted (11% average).
Cordonnier raises Brazilian corn crop, Argentine production forecasts... Weather for the safrinha corn crop remains generally beneficial, especially in central Brazil where the crop is filling. As a result, South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his Brazilian corn crop forecast 3 MMT to 125 MMT. For Argentina, Cordonnier raised his production forecasts 1 MMT for soybeans to 49 MMT and 2 MMT for corn to 48 MMT.
ADM closing South Carolina soybean processing plant... Archer-Daniels-Midland will permanently close its soybean processing plant in Kershaw, South Carolina, later this spring as part of a cost-cutting and consolidation push announced earlier this year, the company confirmed to Reuters. The Kershaw plant is the smallest of more than a dozen soy processing facilities operated by ADM in the United States. It will be the first U.S. soy processing plant to close following a multi-year, industry-wide expansion amid soaring vegoil demand from biofuels makers. But the biofuel sector has more recently been throttling back production due to U.S. biofuels policy uncertainty and the potential for a worsening trade war.
Citi warns of recession, predicts up to five Fed rate cuts... President Trump’s intensifying pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates comes amid rising fears on Wall Street that his sweeping tariff policies could push the U.S. economy into a downturn. Citigroup economists on Monday forecast that by June, economic weakness will become more apparent, prompting the Fed to begin cutting rates — possibly up to five times this year. Citi expects the federal funds rate to fall from its current 4.25% to 4.5% to as low as 3% to 3.25% by year-end. Citi emphasized growing labor market risks, with the unemployment rate — currently at 4.2% — expected to rise, and highlighted this week’s S&P Global manufacturing and services reports as early indicators of tariff-related damage.
Bloomberg Economics cuts global, U.S. GDP forecasts amid tariffs... Bloomberg Economics (BE) estimates Trump’s tariffs will shave about $2 trillion off global output by the end of 2027. Incorporating Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” levies, most of which are currently on a 90-day pause, BE has lowered its 2025 global GDP forecast to 2.7% from 3.1%. Assuming the bulk of tariffs remain in place, BE expects growth to remain low next year, at 2.8%. For the U.S., BE lowered its GDP forecast for 2025 to 1.3% from 2.1%.
FDA suspends milk quality tests amid workforce cuts... The Food and Drug Administration is suspending a quality control program for testing of fluid milk and other dairy products due to reduced capacity in its food safety and nutrition division, according to an internal email seen by Reuters. Effective Monday, the agency suspended its proficiency testing program for Grade “A” raw milk and finished products, according to the email sent in the morning from FDA’s Division of Dairy Safety and addressed to “Network Laboratories.” The testing program was suspended because FDA’s Moffett Center Proficiency Testing Laboratory, part of its division overseeing food safety, “is no longer able to provide laboratory support for proficiency testing and data analysis,” the email said. FDA this month also suspended existing and developing programs that ensured accurate testing for H5N1 in milk and cheese and pathogens like the parasite Cyclospora in other food products.
Trump administration to announce ban on artificial food dyes... HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and FDA Commissioner Marty Makary are set to unveil new Trump administration plans this afternoon to ban petroleum-based synthetic food dyes. The move aligns with long-standing bipartisan concerns about the health risks of chemical food coloring, especially potential cancer links. The policy announcement, which had been foreshadowed as a Kennedy priority, follows the Biden administration’s earlier decision to phase out Red Dye No. 3 by 2027.
Bullish cash cattle expectations... Cash cattle averaged $211.63 last week, up $3.93 and snapping a three-week string of losses. Feedlots expect to receive higher prices for cash cattle again this week, despite packer margins remaining deep in the red.
Cash hog index rises, pork cutout drops... The CME lean hog index is up another 25 cents to $85.71 as of April 18, the third consecutive daily gain. Pork cutout dropped 61 ents to $96.39 on Monday, fueledby a $3.67 decline in primal bellies.
Overnight demand news... Exporters reported no tenders or sales.
Today’s reports
· 2:00 p.m. Milk Production — NASS