Good morning!
Corn firmer, beans and wheat weaker overnight... Corn futures recouped a portion of Monday’s losses overnight, while the soybean and wheat markets extended losses. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans are 5 to 7 cents lower and wheat futures are 2 to 6 cents lower with HRW leading declines. The U.S. dollar index is around 185 points higher and front-month crude oil futures are about 25 cents lower.
More than 10 new trade proposals being considered; 130 countries negotiating... National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett revealed that the U.S. has received “more than 10” substantial trade offers from foreign governments seeking new agreements with Washington. Hassett called the proposals “very good, amazing offers” and pointed to accelerating momentum in global trade talks under President Donald Trump’s administration. After the announcement of a 90-day pause on “reciprocal” tariffs, Hassett and other administration officials stated that 130 countries are now actively negotiating potential trade deals or tariff arrangements with the United States. The administration is weighing whether to finalize deals individually or announce them as a comprehensive package, according to Hassett. The U.S. Trade Representative’s office and the Commerce Department are currently reviewing the details of each offer for economic and strategic viability. Media reports signal the Trump administration is initially focusing on potential trade agreements with Japan, South Korea, India, Australia, the United Kingdom and Vietnam.
No immediate U.S./China trade talks scheduled as trade war expands to Boeing jets... China has ordered its airlines not to take any further deliveries of Boeing jets in response to the U.S. decision to impose 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter. Beijing has also asked that Chinese carriers halt purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from U.S. companies. There are currently no plans for direct talks between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Both sides are waiting for the other to make the first move toward de-escalation. Trump continues to express optimism that talks will eventually occur, but for now, the standoff remains, with no concrete plans for leader-level negotiations.
HRW CCI rating declines, SRW crop improves... USDA rated the winter wheat crop 47% “good” to “excellent” and 19% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop dropped 5.6 points to 319.2, led by a 3-point decline in top producer Kansas. The SRW crop improved 3.8 points to 370.1. Ratings for both crops remain well below year-ago, with HRW down 17.8 points and SRW down 12.0 points. Click here for full details.
Crop Progress Report highlights… Following are highlights from USDA’s crop progress and condition update as of April 13:
- Winter wheat: 47% good/excellent (48% last week); 8% headed (8% average).
- Corn: 4% planted (5% average).
- Soybeans: 2% planted (2% average).
- Spring wheat: ??% planted (??% average).
- Cotton: 5% planted (8% average).
Lower Midwest, Delta to experience more planting delays... Flooding remains widespread in the lower Ohio, Tennessee and Mississippi river basins down into the Delta. Forecasts are dry for these areas this week, though World Weather says rains will return by the weekend and persist periodically through the end of the month, prolonging planting delays. World Weather says, “The rain frequency, even if of light intensity, will prevent the wetter fields from drying and the later it gets into May before sufficient drying occurs the higher the potential for either 1) farmers to switch from corn planting to soybean planting or 2) for producers to completely abandon their flooded fields for the season. There is still plenty of time for improved weather, but current weather patterns suggest that may be a difficult task to accomplish before early May.”
Record March NOPA soy crush expected... Analysts expect the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) to report its members crushed 197.6 million bu. of soybeans during March, which would be a record for the month. Crush is anticipated to rise 11.1% from February and 0.6% from year-ago. Soyoil stocks are expected to rise to 1.617 billion pounds.
India forecasts above-average monsoon... India expects above-average monsoon rainfall for a second straight year in 2025, according to state scientists, raising prospects for robust agricultural output and lower food inflation. The monsoon — critical for nearly 70% of the country’s water needs — is forecast to reach 105% of the long-term average between June and September. Good rainfall could ease inflationary pressures and enable higher rice exports, as nearly half of India’s farmland lacks irrigation. Most regions are expected to benefit, though parts of northwest, northeast and southern Peninsular India may see below-average rains. Officials noted that El Niño conditions are not expected to disrupt this year’s monsoon.
Cold April temps unfavorable for Ukraine’s grain crop development... A sharp cold snap with deep frost and snow across Ukraine in early April virtually stopped the development of grain crops, Ukrainian state meteorologists said. However, heavy rainfall improved soil moisture in many regions. “Precipitation, which was observed during the 10-day period, favored replenishment of productive moisture reserves in all soil layers,” meteorologists said in a report. “At the end of the 10-day period, moisture supply of arable and meter soil layers was mostly sufficient and optimal.”
France increases wheat planted area... France’s ag ministry raised its winter wheat planted area estimate by 40,000 hectares to 4.61 million hectares. The total soft wheat area, including minor spring wheat plantings, is seen at 4.63 million hectares, up 10% from lastyear and 1.1% above the five-year average. “The shift from winter (soft) wheat to spring wheat is less frequent than last year due to milder weather conditions. However, winter sowing was later than usual, leading to delayed development,” the ministry said. Growing conditions were improving compared to the beginning of the year it added.
USDA shuts down PCSC program, launches ‘Farmer First’ initiative... In a major policy shift, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins announced the cancellation of the Biden-era Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities (PCSC) program, calling it a “green new scam” that prioritized non-governmental organizations over farmers. The decision follows a detailed audit that found high administrative costs and limited direct benefit to producers. Rollins unveiled a restructured initiative, Advancing Markets for Producers (AMP), as a replacement, with a sharpened focus on three “Farmer First” principles: 65% of funds must go directly to producers; grant recipients must have enrolled a producer by Dec. 31, 2024; and at least one producer must have received payment by Dec. 31, 2024. While some existing projects may continue if they demonstrate producer-focused outcomes, USDA emphasized that no new funds will be allocated. All eligible expenses before April 13, 2025, will be honored, and USDA will contact individual grant recipients to assess future participation. Of note: Pending is the USDA interim final rule that was released at the end of the Biden administration on climate-smart agriculture practices relative to the Clean Fuel Production Credit (45Z). Comments on the interim final rule were due March 18. The measure is one of the regulatory actions being examined by the Trump administration.
China accuses U.S. of launching ‘advanced’ cyberattacks... China accused the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) of launching “advanced” cyberattacks during the Asian Winter Games in February, targeting essential industries. Police in the northeastern city of Harbin said three alleged NSA agents to a wanted list and also accused the University of California and Virginia Tech of being involved in the attacks after carrying out investigations, according to a report by state-run Xinhua news. The NSA agents were identified by Xinhua as Katheryn A. Wilson, Robert J. Snelling and Stephen W. Johnson. The three were also found to have “repeatedly carried out cyber attacks on China’s critical information infrastructure and participated in cyber attacks on Huawei and other enterprises.”
Euro zone economic sentiment plunges... The ZEW economic sentiment index for the euro zone plunged by 58.3 points from the prior month to -18.5 in April, the lowest since December 2022. Some 41.1% of the surveyed analysts expected no changes in economic activity, 20.2% saw an improvement and 38.7% anticipated a deterioration. The indicator of the current economic situation decreased by 5.7 points to -50.9 and inflation expectations fell by 9.1 points to -3.1.
Germany declared free of FMD... Germany has been certified as free of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) by the World Organization for Animal Health, the country’s ag ministry said. The status of being free of the disease had been reinstated for most of Germany except the containment zone in mid-March.
Beef plants sharply slow slaughters... Packers slaughtered only 564,000 head of cattle last week and this week’s estimate is even smaller at 545,000 head due to down time ahead of Easter. Packers have sharply reduced slaughter runs to manage supplies amid poor margins. While cutting margins have improved, they remain deep in the red.
Cash hog index accelerates lower... The CME lean hog index is down another 86 cents to $86.00 as of April 11, marking the eighth straight daily decline during which it has dropped $2.80. May hogs, which took over as the lead-month contract, finished Monday $1.95 above today’s quote. June hogs held a $9.125 premium on Monday’s close.
Overnight demand news... Exporters reported no tenders or sales.
Today’s reports
- 11:00 a.m. Monthly Soybean Crush — NOPA
- 1:00 p.m. Fruit and Tree Nuts Data — ERS
- 1:00 p.m. Vegetables and Pulses Data — ERS