Good morning!
Corn and beans firmer, wheat weaker this morning... Corn and soybeans rebounded from losses earlier in the overnight session to trade higher this morning, while wheat faced light price pressure. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans are 4 to 5 cents higher and wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is down around 435 points and front-month crude oil futures are about 75 cents higher.
March WASDE Report out later this morning... USDA’s monthly Supply & Demand Report at 11:00 a.m. CT will consider trade policies currently in place at the time of publication and assume those will remain throughout the forecast time period. Analysts expect U.S. ending stocks of 1.516 billion bu. for corn (1.540 billion bu. in February), 379 million bu. for soybeans (380 million bu.), 797 million bu. for wheat (794 million bu.) and 4.93 million bales for cotton (4.90 million bales). Modest adjustments are also expected for global ending stocks forecasts. Full pre-report expectations.
Rollins engages Mexico, Canada amid tariff concerns... USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins spoke with her Mexican and Canadian counterparts on Monday as President Trump’s looming tariffs threaten North American trade ties. In a post on X, Rollins emphasized that tariffs were a “top priority” in her video call with Mexico’s agriculture secretary, Julio Berdegué. He reassured her that Mexico will not impose restrictions on U.S. GM corn imports following a recent trade panel ruling under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement that led Mexico to repeal its ban on GM corn imports. Later, Rollins discussed the U.S. ag trade deficit and Canadian import barriers with Canada’s Agriculture Minister Lawrence MacAulay, particularly regarding U.S. dairy exports — a renewed point of contention with Trump. The U.S. accuses Canada d of undermining U.S. market access through tariff rate quota policies.
China keeps 2024-25 balance sheets unchanged... China’s ag ministry made no changes to its 2024-25 estimates for production or imports for corn, soybeans or cotton this month. It forecasts exports will plunge 14.41 MMT (61.6%) for corn to 9 MMT, 10.15 MMT (9.7%) for soybeans to 94.6 MMT and 1.55 MMT (47.7%) for cotton to 1.7 MMT.
Cordonnier keeps South American crop estimates unchanged... Recent weather in Brazil has been generally favorable for soybean harvesting and safrinha corn crop development. Therefore, South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his Brazilian production forecasts at 170 MMT for soybeans and 123 MMT for corn. However, he noted near-term rains must continue or he will start lowering his Brazilian corn crop outlook. Weather in Argentina has improved significantly, stabilizing crops. Cordonnier kept his Argentine crop forecasts at 48 MMT for soybeans and 46 MMT for corn.
Coceral cuts EU+UK wheat production forecast... Grain trade association Coceral on Tuesday cut its forecast of soft wheat production in the European Union and Britain this year, citing lower-than-anticipated plantings in France and Britain. Coceral now forecasts the 2025 soft wheat crop in the EU and Britain totaling 137.2 MMT, down from an initial projection of 140.4 MMT in December, though well above last year’s rain-hit production of 125.1 MMT. For the 27-country EU, Coceral reduced its soft wheat production outlook to 124.4 MMT from 126.5 MMT in December amid a 2.7-MMT cut to the French wheat crop outlook. British soft wheat production is now forecast at 12.8 MMT, down 1 MMT from the December projection.
India’s edible oil imports fall to four-year low in February... While India’s palm oil imports rose 35.7% from the previous month to 373,549 MT in February, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, soyoil and sunflower oil imports fell 36% and 20.8%, respectively. Total edible oil imports dropped 12% to 899,565 MT, the lowest since February 2021. Stocks dropped 14% to 1.87 MMT as of March 1. Traders expect imports to rise in March as the industry seeks to replenish supplies.
India’s cotton imports to double... India’s cotton imports in 2024-25 are likely to double from a year ago as production is set to fall below consumption because of a decline in acreage planted and adverse weather, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) said. India could import 3 million bales in the current marketing year ending on Sept. 30, up from 1.52 million bales imported a year ago, CAI said. Through the first five months of 2024-25, India’s cotton imports totaled 2.2 million bales.
Trump to meet top CEOs amid market uncertainty... President Donald Trump will address the Business Roundtable today, meeting with top executives, including Wall Street banking leaders, as markets react to concerns over tariffs and recession fears. While his presidency initially boosted confidence among financial leaders, recent volatility and economic uncertainty have tempered optimism. Trump acknowledged last week that tariffs may require an “adjustment period” for the economy.
Import cargo levels surge despite tariff uncertainty... Amid ongoing tariff turmoil, U.S. container ports are seeing elevated import volumes, with a potential summer slowdown, according to the Global Port Tracker report. Retailers accelerated imports ahead of rising tariffs on Chinese goods, now at 20%, and potential new fees on Chinese-built ships. January imports reached 2.22 million TEU, up 13.4% year-over-year. While the first half of 2025 is projected to maintain growth, declines may start midyear, driven by lingering trade uncertainties and last summer’s pre-strike import surge.
Japan’s growth slows amid trade uncertainty... Japan’s economy expanded at a slower pace than initially estimated in the final quarter of 2024, growing 2.2% annually compared to the earlier 2.8% estimate. While this marks the third consecutive quarter of growth, concerns linger over the impact of U.S. tariffs and a weakening trade outlook. Trade Minister Yoji Muto sought exemptions from new U.S. duties but received no assurances. Meanwhile, wage growth remains a focal point for economic recovery, with Japan’s largest labor union pushing for its biggest pay hike request in 30 years.
Cash cattle fundamentals strengthen... The average cash cattle price firmed $2.63 to $200.28 last week, ending a four-week decline. Wholesale beef prices firmed $2.68 to $317.58 for Choice and $1.15 to $306.95 for Select on Monday.
Cash hog fundamentals slip... The CME lean hog index is down another 19 cents to $89.71 as of March 7, marking the fourth straight daily decline. The pork cutout slipped 14 cents to $98.22 on Monday, led by primal bellies and ribs.
Overnight demand news... South Korea purchased 133,000 MT of corn expected to be sourced from the U.S., South America or South Africa.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 11:00 a.m. World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates Reports (WASDE) — WAOB
- 11:00 a.m. Cotton Ginnings — NASS
- 11:00 a.m. Crop Production — NASS
- 11:15 a.m. Cotton: World Markets and Trade — FAS
- 11:15 a.m. Grains: World Markets and Trade — FAS
- 11:15 a.m. Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade — FAS
- 11:15 a.m. World Agricultural Production — FAS