Good morning!
Grains near session highs this morning... It was another quiet, two-sided overnight session for grain markets, though futures have generally firmed and are near their session highs this morning. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading fractionally on either side of unchanged, soybeans are mostly 4 cents higher and wheat futures are fractionally to 4 cents higher with HRS contracts pacing gains. The U.S. dollar index is down nearly 200 points and front-month crude oil futures are about 30 cents lower. Gold futures rose to a record high.
Trump follows through with auto tariffs, escalating trade war... President Donald Trump will impose a 25% tariff on top of previous duties on imports of finished vehicles starting April 3. The base U.S. tariff rate for automotive imports is 2.5%. The duties will be applied to cars and trucks built in countries that have free-trade agreements with the United States. They also will apply to major automotive parts imports, identified in Trump’s proclamation as “engines and engine parts, transmissions and powertrain parts and electrical components.” But parts duties may start up to a month later with a date to be set in a coming Federal Register notice, but not later than May 3. United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)-compliant automobile parts (such as engines, transmissions and electrical components) will remain tariff-free until Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, in consultation with U.S. Customs and Border Protection, establishes a process to apply tariffs to their non-U.S. content, according to the White House.
Trump warns EU, Canada of potential additional ‘large-scale tariffs’... President Trump warned today he plans to impose additional “large-scale tariffs” on the European Union and Canada if they collaborate to do “economic harm” to the United States. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen condemned Trump’s auto tariffs and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called them a “direct attack” and a violation of USMCA.
Trump floats tariff cut for China to close TikTok deal... President Trump said he would be willing to reduce tariffs on China to get a deal done with TikTok’s Chinese parent ByteDance to sell the social media video app used by 170 million Americans. ByteDance has an April 5 deadline to find a non-Chinese buyer for TikTok or face a U.S. ban on national security grounds that was supposed to have taken effect in January under a 2024 law. Trump said he was willing to extend the April deadline if an agreement over the social media app was not reached. China’s commerce ministry said its position on the tariff issue is consistent and that Beijing is willing to engage with Washington on the basis of mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit.
Weekly Export Sales Report out this morning... For the week ended March 20, traders expect:
| 2024-25 expectations (in MT) | Last week (in MT) | |
| Corn | 600,000-1,600,000 | 1,496,660 |
| Wheat | 0-550,000 | (248,849) |
| Soybeans | 300,000-900,000 | 352,580 |
| Soymeal | 150,000-450,000 | 182,243 |
| Soyoil | 5,000-30,000 | 34,179 |
Trump administration tells oil and biofuels groups to hash out new biofuels policy... The Trump administration has asked oil and biofuels producers to hash out a deal on the next phase of the nation’s biofuels policy to avoid the kind of political clashes that marked the president’s first term, four people familiar with the matter told Reuters. The White House directive has already yielded at least two bilateral meetings, including one hosted last week by the American Petroleum Institute, said the sources. At that meeting, representatives discussed issues like the size of future mandated biofuel blending volumes, exemptions for small refiners and biofuel tax policy. Three of the sources said the group has already agreed in principle to ask that EPA significantly raise the mandate for renewable diesel and biodiesel from its current level of 3.35 billion gallons, with the range discussed between 4.75 billion and 5.5 billion gallons. Some wanted higher volumes in 2026 and others pushing for a more gradual rise, the sources said. Blending mandates for ethanol, meanwhile, have capped out at 15 billion gallons, and the parties saw little growth prospect due to plateauing demand for gasoline. The groups were split over small refinery exemptions to the RFS, especially whether the administration should force other refiners to make up for any exempted blending volumes. Another crucial issue discussed was the fate of a new tax credit created for biomass-based diesel under the Biden administration that hasn’t been finalized. Some, including the National Association of Truck Stop Operators, backed a return to the blenders credit while others wanted to support the new 45Z tax credit, according to the sources.
China pauses new deals with Li Ka-shing family after Panama ports plan... China has told state-owned firms to hold off on any new collaboration with businesses linked to Li Ka-shing and his family, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg, after the Hong Kong billionaire irked Beijing with his plan to sell two Panama ports. CK Hutchison’s deal with a BlackRock Inc.-led consortium to sell ports in Panama and elsewhere put his conglomerate’s flagship entity in the crosshairs of U.S./China tensions. Existing tie-ups are not affected, the sources said. Under the directive, state enterprises wouldn’t immediately get approval for business activities linked to the tycoon. The regulators are also reviewing what investments the family has in China and abroad in a bid to better understand the breadth of their business dealings.
China’s industrial profits fall to start 2025... China’s industrial profits fell 0.3% in the January-February period from the same period last year, reflecting ongoing deflationary pressures and rising trade tensions with the United States. Profits at state-owned firms rose 2.1% in the first two months, foreign firms recorded a 4.9% gain and private-sector companies posted a 9% decline.
H&P Report out this afternoon... Analysts expect USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report to show a 1.2% increase in the U.S. hog herd as of March 1. The breeding herd is expected to increase 0.2%, while the market hog inventory is anticipated to be 1.1% bigger than last year. The winter pig crop is expected to have increased 1.8% from last year. Revisions to past data are likely as first quarter slaughter ran below levels implied by the December H&P Report.
Brazilian firm buys U.S. egg producer... Brazilian firm Global Eggs, a privately owned holding group controlled by Ricardo Faria, said it agreed to pay $1.1 billion for Hillandale Farms, one of the largest U.S. chicken egg suppliers. “Americans love eggs. It’s a market with high consumption,” Faria told the Financial Times (FT). “Eggs are the fastest-growing consumer good on the shelf or in supermarket trolleys.” Faria said the purchase of Hillandale from the Bethel family was not motivated by recent market dynamics, but rather fit into an international expansion strategy. FT says a binding purchase agreement has been signed, with closing of the deal subject to final approvals. The takeover will double production by businesses held by Luxembourg-based Global Eggs that is operated out of Brazil.
France credits bird flu vaccine as poultry return outdoors... France lifted restrictions on outdoor access for poultry following a decline in bird flu infections, which officials attribute to a successful vaccination campaign, Reuters reported. In 2023, France became the first major poultry exporter to implement a nationwide vaccination program targeting highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The initiative, focused particularly on farm ducks, appears to have curbed the virus’ spread and supported the recovery of the domestic poultry sector. “France’s vaccination policy has paid off,” Agriculture Minister Annie Genevard told lawmakers, adding that the country has regained its HPAI-free status and now considers the risk level “moderate.” While some trade partners had imposed restrictions on French poultry, the domestic industry has welcomed the vaccine’s impact. As France sees success, the U.S. is evaluating similar measures amid its own outbreak, which has driven up egg prices and spread to dairy cows and farm workers. Meanwhile, Britain recently reported the world’s first case of bird flu in a sheep.
Choice beef continues to surge... Choice boxed beef prices jumped another $3.11 to $338.30 on Wednesday, while Select firmed $2.48 to $316.53. Wholesale Choice beef has surged $12.85 in three days this week and $27.53 since Feb. 21 to a record for March. The only other times Choice beef values have been higher were June 2023, June and August 2021 and the record surge in May 2020.
Cash hog index firms, pork cutout falls... The CME lean hog index is up 23 cents to $89.13 as of March 25. The pork cutout fell $1.90 to $95.65 on Wednesday, though movement stayed strong at 320.8 loads, signaling active retailer buying on weaker prices.
Overnight demand news... Taiwan purchased 100,000 MT of U.S. milling wheat. South Korea bought 136,000 MT of corn – 68,000 MT optional origin and 68,000 MT to be sourced from South America or South Africa – with potential additional purchases from the tender for up to 280,000 MT. Turkey tendered to sell 50,000 MT of durum wheat. Bangladesh tendered to buy 50,000 MT of optional origin non-basmati parboiled rice.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 7:30 a.m. Weekly Export Sales — FAS
- 2:00 p.m. Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: March 2025 — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Livestock and Meat Domestic Data — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Rice Yearbook — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. 2022 Census of Agriculture - U.S. Virgin Islands — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Hogs and Pigs — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Slaughter Weekly — NASS