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Grains firmer overnight... Corn, soybeans and wheat posted modest corrective gains during the overnight session, as recent heavy selling pressure eased. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 3 to 6 cents higher, soybeans are 5 to 8 cents higher and wheat futures are 4 to 9 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is around 775 points lower and front-month crude oil futures are down around $1.25.
Trump administration signals possible tariffs relief for Canada and Mexico... The Trump administration may announce a path to tariffs relief for Mexican and Canadian goods as soon as today, according to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. While President Donald Trump is not expected to fully roll back the tariffs tied to the flow of fentanyl and migrants into the U.S., a compromise could see reduced tariffs if Canada and Mexico meet certain trade conditions. Lutnick emphasized that any relief would be contingent on adherence to the rules of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), stating, “If you live under those rules, then the president is considering giving you relief.” Lawmakers on Capitol Hill, including some of Trump’s allies, urged the administration to reconsider the tariffs, warning of potential impacts on American consumers and industries.
Trump addresses Congress on key issues... President Donald Trump addressed a joint session of Congress Tuesday evening, marking his first speech to lawmakers since returning to office on Jan. 20. He defended his newly enacted tariffs on Canada and Mexico, along with doubling of tariffs on China. Trump highlighted his administration’s economic and policy achievements, efforts to curb illegal immigration and increase border security and efforts to reshape the federal government. We’ll have further details in “Evening Report.”
China raises 2025 budget for grain stockpiling, targets higher domestic output... China raised its annual grain production target to around 700 MMT and expanded its agriculture stockpile budget, pushing for stronger measures to safeguard food supplies as tensions with trade partners intensify. Beijing raised its 2025 budget for stockpiling grain, edible oils and other materials by 6.1% from a year ago to 131.66 billion yuan ($18.12 billion). It also allocated 54.05 billion yuan of subsidies for agricultural insurance premiums. China will advance the construction and improve the connectivity of storage facilities for grain, cotton, sugar, meat and fertilizer. Beijing also signaled it will provide more support for beef cattle and dairy industries, which have faced oversupply issues. China said it will also continue efforts reduce the use of soymeal in feed production, without providing specific details.
China ramps up stimulus amid intensifying trade war... China unveiled more fiscal stimulus, promising greater efforts to support consumption and cushion the economic impact of an escalating trade war with the United States. Premier Li Qiang said Beijing aimed for a roughly 5% GDP growth target for 2025 and a larger budget deficit plan of around 4% of economic output this year. Li also said Beijing plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan ($179 billion) in ultra-long special treasury bonds this year, up from 1 trillion yuan in 2024. Local governments will be allowed to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in special debt, up from 3.9 trillion yuan. Separately, Beijing plans to raise 500 billion yuan to re-capitalize major state banks. In a speech at the opening of the annual meeting of China’s parliament, Li warned that “changes unseen in a century are unfolding across the world at a faster pace. An increasingly complex and severe external environment may exert a greater impact on China in areas such as trade, science, and technology.”
Russian winter crops fared well during winter... Russia’s chief meteorologist Roman Vilfand said the country’s winter crops had emerged in much better condition at the end of winter than when they entered dormancy. Vilfand was referring primarily to crops in the European part of Russia, which has seen an unusually warm winter. However, he warned that a lack of precip during winter may hurt crops if spring rainfall isn’t timely.
BlackRock strikes deal for Panama ports... A consortium of investors led by BlackRock agreed to buy majority stakes in ports on either end of the Panama Canal, putting U.S. firms in control of two ports that President Trump raised as a security concern because of their connection to China. The deal with Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison is worth $22.8 billion. It includes Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison’s 90% ownership of Panama’s Balboa and Cristóbal ports, strengthening U.S. influence over this critical trade route amid concerns about Chinese involvement. The transaction also provides BlackRock control of over 40 ports in 23 countries, underscoring its global reach. U.S. opposition to the current ownership structure centers on concerns China could use the ports for military purposes, including monitoring ship movements or possibly sabotaging the waterway. Trump touted BlackRock’s Panama Canal ports deal, saying the U.S. is “reclaiming” waterway.
China announces plans for major renewable projects to tackle climate change... China said on Wednesday it would develop a package of major projects to tackle climate change as it moves to bring its carbon dioxide emissions to a peak before 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060. China said it would develop new offshore wind farms and accelerate the construction of “new energy bases” across its vast desert areas, according to a report published by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). Among the proposed projects cited in the report by the state planning agency was a controversial hydropower facility on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet, which has raised concerns in India about its potential impact on downstream water flows. It also said it would develop a direct power transmission route connecting Tibet with Hong Kong, Macao and Guangdong in the southeast. However, coal will remain a key fuel, with the NDRC report saying the country will continue to increase coal production and supply this year even as it plans for trials of low-carbon technology at its coal-fired power plants and to promote initiatives aimed at substituting fossil fuels with renewables.
Zelenskyy signals readiness for swift peace talks amid U.S. aid pause... Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed his willingness to move quickly toward ending Russia’s war on Ukraine, following President Trump’s decision to halt all U.S. military aid. Zelenskyy proposed initial steps, including prisoner releases and a ceasefire on missile and drone strikes, contingent on reciprocal actions from Russia. “Regarding the agreement on minerals and security, Ukraine is ready to sign it at any time that is convenient for you,” Trump quoted Zelenskyy as saying.
Packers continue to slow cattle slaughter amid poor margins... Processing margins for beef plants have improved significantly but remain deep in the red. As a result, packers continue to slow slaughter rates, with plans for that to continue for the foreseeable future. Reduced slaughters limit packers’ need to actively pursue cattle in the negotiated market, pointing to more near-term cash cattle pressure.
Pork margins remain positive... Pork processing margins aren’t overly strong but they are in the black, giving plants incentive to maintain active slaughter rates and keeping the cash market supported. The CME lean hog index is up 28 cents to $90.22 as of March 3, the third straight daily gain.
Overnight demand news... Syria tendered to buy 100,000 MT of optional origin soft milling wheat. Japan tendered to buy 65,000 MT of feed wheat and 25,000 MT of feed barley.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 9:30 a.m. Weekly Ethanol Production — EIA
- 11:00 a.m. Weekly Weather: State Stories — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Broiler Hatchery — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. United States and Canadian Cattle — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. United States and Canadian Hogs — NASS