Good morning!
Grains firmer early this morning... Corn, soybeans and wheat traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but are mildly firmer early this morning. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading fractionally to a penny higher, soybeans are 5 to 7 cents higher and wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is up around 450 points and front-month crude oil futures are about 45 cents higher.
Weekly Export Sales Report out this morning... For the week ended Jan. 30, traders expect:
| 2024-25 expectations (in MT) | Last week (in MT) | |
| Corn | 850,000-1,500,000 | 1,358,543 |
| Wheat | 200,000-550,000 | 456,086 |
| Soybeans | 300,000-1,100,000 | 438,002 |
| Soymeal | 200,000-500,000 | 410,300 |
| Soyoil | (15,000)-30,000 | 12,452 |
Mexico lifts restrictions on GM corn, glyphosate following USMCA ruling... Mexico has rolled back restrictions on glyphosate and genetically modified (GM) corn after a ruling by a U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) dispute panel, marking a shift in its agricultural policy. The Ministry of Economy nullified key sections of the February 2023 decree restricting these products. The ruling follows a U.S. trade challenge, with the panel deciding in favor of the U.S. in December 2024. While it allows GM corn imports, Mexico retains a ban on GMO corn planting. Despite the reversal, Mexico still plans to phase out glyphosate and implement GMO labeling and traceability measures.
Russia seizes grain trader’s assets... A Russian court ruled in favor of a lawsuit filed by the General Prosecutor’s Office to transfer all the assets of Rodnie Polya, which exported 14% of Russian grain in the 2023-24 season, to the state. Published materials cited the foreign citizenship of a former owner as a key reason for the move, aimed at preventing foreign control over strategic assets. The decision creates an important precedent as some other grain sector assets in Russia are still controlled by foreign-registered firms. Rodnie Polya, formerly known as TD RIF, controls a major grain-loading terminal in the Black Sea region, classified as a strategic asset that, by law, cannot be controlled by foreigners. It also owns 17 grain-transporting vessels.
Lutnick’s nomination advances amid trade policy concerns... The Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee advanced Howard Lutnick’s nomination to lead the Commerce Department in a 16-12 vote. Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) was the only Democrat to side with Republicans. Lutnick is expected to drive Trump’s trade agenda, advocating for broad tariffs and stronger trade reciprocity. He supports high tariffs on Chinese goods and dismisses concerns about inflation. If confirmed as expected, Lutnick’s leadership could mark a significant shift in U.S. trade policy, particularly with China and the EU.
USTR nominee Greer to face Senate scrutiny amid trade policy shifts... Jamieson Greer, President Donald Trump’s nominee for U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), will appear before the Senate Finance Committee today for his confirmation hearing. The timing is critical, as a new 10% tariff on Chinese imports took effect on Feb. 4 (China’s retaliation takes effect Feb. 10), while proposed 25% tariffs on Canada (10% on oil) and Mexico have been postponed for 30 days. Greer, an international trade attorney and former chief of staff to Robert Lighthizer, is expected to face questions on tariffs, trade strategy and supply chain resilience. Greer has advocated for a strategic decoupling from China, emphasizing the need to prevent Chinese companies from relocating to other countries to avoid U.S. tariffs. Greer has recommended that Congress revoke China’s “permanent normal trade relations” (PNTR) status. Greer was heavily involved in writing the U.S./China Phase 1 trade agreement and renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement, which resulted in the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). He calls for an “active and pragmatic trade policy” to foster economic growth and job creation. Senators will probe his approach to trade negotiations and how he plans to align with the administration’s economic goals. Greer will tell lawmakers he wants to work “in close consultation with Congress” as USTR, noting that an active and pragmatic approach to trade policy will be important to lower inflation and unemployment. He will also note that there needs to be “resilience in strategic goods and services, agricultural and food supply chains and technology.”
GOP budget battle: House vs. Senate standoff... House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is heading to the White House today with a group of House Republicans to discuss the budget resolution with President Trump, but tensions between House and Senate Republicans are evident. The Republican-controlled House and Senate are at odds over Trump’s legislative agenda, with Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) moving forward with his own $300 billion budget plan, undercutting Johnson’s strategy. Graham’s proposal prioritizes defense and border security and energy policy, while House Republicans push for a single package that also includes tax cuts. With government funding expiring March 14 and the debt ceiling looming early this summer, this intra-party struggle threatens to complicate Republican priorities in the 119th Congress.
Crackdown on gov’t subscription payments... White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that Politico had been receiving substantial U.S. government funding, totaling between $8 million and $9.5 million through government subscriptions. As part of the Trump administration’s broader effort to cut federal spending, the White House announced the immediate termination of these payments. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk, is overseeing the cancellation of these funds as part of a larger initiative to scrutinize federal expenditures. The revelation has sparked debate, with supporters praising the move as a crackdown on wasteful spending. Reports indicate that other media outlets, including Reuters and the Associated Press, have also reportedly received government funding in recent years.
U.S. set to unveil Trump plan to end three-year war in Ukraine... U.S. allies expect the Trump administration to present a long-awaited plan to end Russia’s war on Ukraine at the Munich Security Conference in Germany next week, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The blueprint would be set out for allies by Trump’s special representative for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, the people said. Speaking to Newsmax on Wednesday evening, Kellogg said he’ll be having discussions with European leaders on his trip to Munich and report back to the president. He won’t be presenting the plan publicly, as that’s for Trump to do. Kellogg and others have dropped hints in recent weeks of what Trump allies have referred to as “peace through strength.” Elements include potentially freezing the conflict and leaving territory occupied by Russian forces in limbo while providing Ukraine with security guarantees to ensure that Moscow can’t attack again. Kellogg has signaled the U.S. would like to see elections held in Ukraine after a ceasefire, while Trump has indicated that access to critical minerals in return for U.S. support could be part of a settlement. Trump has also threatened Moscow with massive sanctions if it doesn’t engage in talks.
BOE cuts rates amid tariff concerns... The Bank of England (BOE) lowered its key interest rate 25 basis points to 4.5%, marking its third cut since August, as sluggish economic growth and President Trump’s tariff threats cast uncertainty over the global economy. The central bank also trimmed its UK growth forecast to 0.75% for 2025, down from 1.5% in November. Despite inflationary concerns, policymakers signaled openness to further gradual cuts, wary of the impact of U.S. trade policies and a weak pound.
Packers pulling back on cash cattle bids... Amid highly negative margins, packers started with cash cattle bids well below week-ago, though feedlots are in no hurry to move cattle at lower prices. If packers don’t get more aggressive with cash cattle bids, it’s likely this week’s negotiated trade will be small and packers will pull largely from contracted supplies.
Traders growing more confident in extended cash hog rally... The CME lean hog index is up another 52 cents to $84.60 as of Feb. 4, increasing the rise from the seasonal low to $4.17. After strong gains on Wednesday, February lean hog futures finished $2.05 above the today’s cash quote, suggesting traders expect continued near-term price strength.
Overnight demand news... South Korea purchased 30,000 MT of milling wheat – 22,700 MT U.S. and 7,3000MT Canadian – but passed on a tender to buy up to 140,000 MT of corn form the U.S., South America or South Africa as prices were deemed too high. Japan purchased 96,725 MMT of milling wheat via its weekly tender, including 64,545 MT U.S. and 32,180 MT Canadian.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 7:30 a.m. Weekly Export Sales — FAS
- 10:00 a.m. Highlights from the February 2025 Farm Income Forecast — ERS
- 10:00 a.m. Livestock and Meat International Trade Data — ERS