Good morning!
Grains trading near session lows this morning... Corn, soybeans and wheat are near their session lows this morning following light, two-sided price action overnight. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading fractionally to a penny lower, soybeans are 5 to 6 cents lower and wheat futures are 1 to 3 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is around 230 points higher and front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower this morning.
Rollins’ ‘big news’ expected today... USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins speaks this morning before the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture (NASDA) Winter Policy Conference. Brooke signaled earlier that there would be “big news” this week and most think it will be a new Trump administration approach to combating highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and surging egg prices. Rollins has been working with the White House and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett on the coming announcement.
Trump orders probe into U.S. copper imports... President Donald Trump ordered a probe into potential new tariffs on copper imports to rebuild U.S. production of a metal critical to electric vehicles, military hardware, the power grid and many consumer goods. Trump, looking to thwart what his advisers see as a move by China to dominate the global copper market, signed an order at the White House directing Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to start a national security probe under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. That is the same law Trump used in his first term to impose 25% global tariffs on steel and aluminum.
Mexico advances ban on cultivation of GM corn... Mexico’s lower house of Congress has approved a constitutional reform to ban the planting of genetically modified (GM) corn, passing the measure with a 409-69 vote. The reform designates native corn as an “element of national security.” However, concerns have emerged over a provision stating that any other use of GM corn must be evaluated for potential risks to biosecurity, health and cultural heritage. The measure now heads to the Senate for final approval. This move follows Mexico’s prior attempt to ban GM corn imports, which was overturned under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), raising the possibility of renewed U.S. objections.
SovEcon lowers Russian wheat export forecast... SovEcon reduced its 2024-25 Russian wheat export forecast by 600,000 MT to 42.2 MMT, reflecting the slow shipments pace. Russian exports are expected to fall 10.2 MMT (19.5%) from last year and 2 MMT (4.5%) from the five-year average.
Brazil’s Para state set to reverse tax on grain production... The governor of the northern Brazilian state of Para said he will propose a bill to revoke a state tax on grains production. The tax, set to take effect next month, would impose a 4.32 real ($0.7527) charge on a 60-kilo bag of soybeans and a 2.09 real ($0.3641) charge on a 60-kilo bag of corn. The governor’s decision comes amid criticism from farmers and an industry lobby regarding another new state law imposing a 1.8% levy on grain exports from neighboring Maranhao. The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove), which represents global grain merchants, filed a suit against the Maranhao measure last week.
Thailand plans subsidy for rice farmers amid falling prices... Thailand’s government plans a 2.87 billion baht ($85.2 million) subsidy for rice farmers as prices plummet, Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan said. He did not provide further details.
Update on $10 billion in farmer economic relief payments... The payments Congress approved Dec. 21 are coming, despite errant conjecture from some outside Washington. Based on history, the initial payment will likely be around 85% of the projected total, with a supplemental payment likely coming in the summer. Most expect the per-acre payment rates to be in line with what staffers on the House Ag Committee released last year. Of note: The payments would be impacted if there is a government shutdown beginning March 15.
House narrowly passes GOP budget resolution... The House passed the Republican budget resolution by a razor-thin vote of 217-215. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) was the only Republican to vote no. Initially unable to secure enough votes, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and his leadership team executed a last-minute procedural switch, allowing the roll call to proceed as departing Democrats scrambled to return. The fiscal year (FY) 2025 budget blueprint paves the way for up to $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and new breaks, offset by $2 trillion in spending reductions over the next decade. It also includes provisions for a $4 trillion debt limit increase and funding boosts for border security and defense. Despite internal GOP disagreements — conservatives demanding deeper cuts and moderates concerned about Medicaid and food stamp reductions — the leadership emphasized that failing to pass their framework would risk allowing tax hikes when 2017 tax cuts expire. This budget resolution is just the first step toward enacting Trump’s broader fiscal agenda. The Senate has its own competing budget plan, emphasizing border security and defense while deferring tax legislation. President Trump has signaled openness to either the House or Senate approach, leaving the final outcome uncertain. A compromise budget resolution won’t come to the House floor until early April. That’s when two new House Republicans from Florida will be sworn in. New York GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik can now exit for her new UN post. Johnson wants to send a reconciliation package to Trump by early May.
Some GOP lawmakers may want to repeal IRA’s clean energy credits... Some GOP lawmakers in the budget reconciliation talks want to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act’s clean energy credits. Republicans are looking for savings from the credits that Democrats passed in 2022. This could range from clawing back tax incentive credits to income caps for some incentives to transferability of the benefits. Whether or not this includes the 45Z (sustainable aviation fuel) tax incentives is unknown, as this program is supported not only by Democrats but also by farm-state lawmakers.
Tax cut meeting to be held today... A meeting on tax cuts will be held at the White House today and is expected to include Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett on the administration side. The contingency from Congress includes Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) along with the tax committee chairs, Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.) and Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho). Of note: The House side may agree with the scoring method that Senate Republicans want to employ to make permanent extensions feasible without having to dip into huge offsets because of reconciliation rules.
Senate vote on Greer for USTR expected today... The Senate is set to vote today on the nomination of Jamieson Greer as U.S. Trade Representative (USTR). Earlier this week, the Senate advanced the nomination with a 55-42 procedural vote. Greer is expected to be confirmed and will face several trade challenges immediately upon taking office.
Zelenskyy, Trump to meet as resource deal finalized... Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is set to meet with President Trump in Washington on Friday to finalize an agreement granting the U.S. control over half of Ukraine’s natural resources. The deal, expected to be approved by Ukraine’s cabinet today, is part of Trump’s push for a resolution to Russia’s invasion. While Kyiv initially rejected the terms due to a lack of security guarantees, the revised agreement emphasizes economic partnership. Trump, who has recently criticized Zelenskyy and moved closer to Moscow, sees the deal as a key step toward ending the conflict.
Cold Storage Report out this morning... USDA will detail frozen meat stocks at the end of January. The five-year average is a 1.6-million-lb. increase in beef stocks and a 44.7-million-lb. rise in pork stocks during the month.
Cattle futures signaling short-term lows... Live cattle and feeders built in recent gains Tuesday, with the rebound in prices suggesting short-term lows are in place. But a strong extension of the gains will be dependent on cash fundamentals firming. While wholesale beef prices have risen the past two days, cash cattle are expected to trade lower again this week.
Cash hog index continues recent slide... The CME lean hog index is down another 21 cents to $89.47 as of Feb. 24, marking the third straight daily decline. April lean hog futures finished Tuesday $2.895 below today’s quote. The pork cutout fell $2.889 to $95.65 on Tuesday, as all cuts except ribs weakened.
Overnight demand news... South Korea purchased a total of 133,000 MT of corn in two separate tenders, all of which is expected to be sourced from the United States.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 9:30 a.m. Weekly Ethanol Production — EIA
- 2:00 p.m. Broiler Hatchery — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Cold Storage — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Crop Values — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Peanut Stocks and Processing — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Trout Production — NASS