Good morning!
Grains rebound overnight... Corn, soybeans and wheat recouped some of Wednesday’s losses during the overnight session.As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading mostly a nickel higher, soybeans are 5 to 7 cents higher, winter wheat markets are 2 to 5 cents higher and spring wheat is 7 to 9 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is around 250 points lower and front-month crude oil futures are trading just above unchanged. Gold surged to a record high overnight.
Weekly export sales pushed back to Friday... Due to Monday’s government holiday, USDA’s export sales data for the week ended Feb. 13 will be released Friday morning.
Trump says new China trade deal ‘possible’... President Donald Trump said a fresh trade deal with China was “possible,” signaling a potential willingness to avoid a brewing trade war between Washington and Beijing, emphasizing that his “great” relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The New York Times reported Trump expressed hope to reach a new broad trade agreement with Beijing, including asking China to increase purchases of American goods and make large investments in the United States.
EU seeks to avoid U.S. trade war... The European Union is open to negotiating lower tariffs on automobiles and other goods to prevent a trade conflict with the U.S., according to Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic. Speaking in Washington, Sefcovic emphasized the EU’s commitment to de-escalation but warned that if the U.S. follows through on tariff threats, the bloc will respond “firmly and swiftly.” Sefcovic met with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Trump’s nominee to be U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett — in Washington on Wednesday to discuss the various tariffs facing U.S. trading partners.
EU tightens import standards for agriculture... The European Union is taking steps to align import standards with domestic regulations, focusing on pesticide use and animal welfare. Announced on Wednesday, the move aims to address EU farmers’ concerns and ensure fair competition. Products treated with hazardous pesticides banned in the EU may be prohibited. A case-by-case approach will be used to assess toxic pesticide use. The restrictions may impact major exporters like the U.S., particularly soybean trade. Imported livestock products must meet EU welfare regulations.
Trump expands tariff list to include lumber, forest products... President Trump announced plans to impose new tariffs within the next month, adding lumber and forest products to the list of goods facing duties. Trump said a 25% tariff on lumber could take effect by early April, alongside similar tariffs on vehicles, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. He claims the tariffs will generate significant revenue but hinted at potential exemptions for countries that lower their own trade barriers.
India’s wheat crop hit with warm, dry weather ahead of harvest... India is facing warm, dry weather, threatening its wheat crop and raising the prospect of the government cutting or removing import duties. Rainfall across the country’s northwest region, a major wheat growing belt, has been almost 80% below normal since the beginning of the year, according to the India Meteorological Department. “The forecast shows continued warmer and drier conditions for at least the next month, which will continue to reduce overall wheat yields in the region,” Donald Keeney, a senior meteorologist at commercial forecaster Maxar Technologies Inc., told Bloomberg. “It’s certainly hurting the wheat crop.”
Russian winter wheat will remain safe from winterkill... Bitter cold air settled into the western and southern Russia’s winter crop region along with Ukraine and western Kazakhstan during the past week. Colder-than-normal temps will persist during the next several days and nighttime readings will again drop near the threshold for crop damage. However, World Weather Inc. says no crop damage is expected since the only threatening temperatures will be in areas with significant snow cover.
Ukraine has 13.9 MMT of grain to export through June... Ukraine’s exportable grain surplus in 2024-25 is estimated at 41.9 MMT as of mid-February, Ukrainian Ag Minister Vitaliy Koval said, including 16.2 MMT of wheat, 22.1 MMT of corn and 2.8 MMT of barley. As of Feb. 19, Ukraine had exported 28 MMT of grain, including 11.7 MMT of wheat, 13.8 MMT of corn and 2.1 MMT of barley.
Indian refiners cancel palm oil orders amid price surge... Indian refiners have canceled 70,000 MT of crude palm oil orders (CPO) scheduled between March and June due to soaring Malaysian benchmark prices and negative refining margins, Reuters reports. India made the cancellations over the past three days, including 40,000 MT on Thursday, following an 11% rise in Malaysian palm oil futures over the past month. The cancellations may curb further price hikes in Malaysia but could boost soyoil demand, as some refiners shift to the alternative oil. With CPO now priced at around $1,210 per MT CIF India for March delivery — up from $1,120 to $1,130 a month ago — refiners are opting to sell back palm oil to suppliers instead of importing.
Thailand to aid rice market amid farmer protests... Thailand’s government is considering measures to support the domestic rice market after farmers stepped up protests in Bangkok in the face of falling prices. Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan will convene a panel on rice policy and management today before announcing any decisions. Thai 5% broken white rice — an Asian benchmark — is down about 17% this year, according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association. Farmers staged a protest at Government House on Wednesday to demand assistance, the Bangkok Post reported, after rice prices fell to the lowest level since late 2022.
China leaves benchmark lending rates unchanged... The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) kept its key lending rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive month in February, as expected. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR), a benchmark for most corporate and household loans, was maintained at 3.1%, while the five-year LPR, a reference for property mortgages, remained at 3.6%. Both rates are at record lows following reductions in October and July last year.
Iowa leaders push for faster bird flu vaccine approval amid export concerns... Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, along with U.S. Sens. Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst, are urging USDA to accelerate the approval of animal vaccines for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). However, poultry trade groups oppose the move, arguing that vaccines could mask symptoms, prompting trade bans on U.S. poultry exports. Many countries, including China and the European Union, ban poultry imports from nations that vaccinate against HPAI. The concern is that vaccinated birds can still carry and spread the virus asymptomatically, making it harder to detect and control outbreaks. Leaders of the Congressional Chicken Caucus said in a letter to USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins last week that while the egg industry has lost the most birds, the broiler industry could bear a disproportionate share of the costs of any policy change.
Choice beef faces more price pressure... Choice boxed beef fell $1.88 to $313.89 on Wednesday, the lowest level since Dec. 11. Amid the seasonally weak period for beef demand, wholesale beef prices are likely to face more near-term pressure, especially Choice beef.
Pork cutout down sharply again... Pork cutout fell another $3.95 to 495.52 on Wednesday, led lower by a $16.75 drop bellies. Over the past two days, the cutout dropped $6.95 amid a $27.00 plunge in primal belly prices. The CME lean hog index continues to strengthen, rising another 79 cents to $90.98 as of Feb. 18.
Overnight demand news... Taiwan purchased 102,450 MT of U.S. milling wheat. Japan purchased 96,160 MT of milling wheat via its weekly tender, including 34,890 MT U.S., 34,210 Canadian and 27,060 MT Australian.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 10:00 a.m. Weekly Ethanol Production — EIA
- 2:00 p.m. Livestock Slaughter — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Slaughter Weekly — NASS