Good morning!
Quiet overnight grain trade... Corn, soybeans and wheat held in tight trading ranges during a quiet overnight session. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading fractionally to a penny higher, soybeans are steady to fractionally higher and wheat futures are trading a penny lower to 1 cent higher. The U.S. dollar index is modestly firmer and front-month crude oil futures are around 50 cents lower.
Stronger jobs growth expected for November... Economists polled by Reuters expect the Labor Department to report the U.S. economy added 200,000 non-farm payrolls last month, which would be up notably from the 120,000 jobs added in October that was the lowest since December 2020. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 4.2%.
Russian keeps hiking wheat export duty... Russia’s tax on wheat exports will jump to 4,871.5 rubles ($49.28) per metric ton for the week of Dec. 11-17 up from 3,696.3 rubles ($37.39) the previous week. The export tax has surged 437% since mid-September, as Russia’s ag ministry tries to slow shipments.
Sharp slowdown in Brazilian soybean, corn exports in November... Brazil exported 2.553 MMT of soybeans in November, down from 4.710 MMT the previous month and 5.196 MMT last year. Brazil’s corn exports totaled 4.726 MMT, down from 6.406 MMT in October and 7.406 MMT last year.
Argus sees bigger Ukrainian wheat crop, stable Russian production... Argus Media forecasts Ukraine’s wheat production at 23.7 MMT in 2025, up from 22.4 MMT this year. Argus projects Russia’s wheat production at 81.5 MMT, up marginally from 81.3 MMT this year.
France’s wheat crop ratings edge lower... France’s ag ministry rated the country’s wheat crop as 86% good/excellent as of Dec. 2, down one point from the previous week but up nine points from last year. The rating was the second lowest for the date in the past five years, behind year-ago.
Dairy, vegoils push FAO food price index higher... The UN Food and Agriculture Organization global food price index rose 0.5% in November, driven by higher prices for dairy products and vegoils, which slightly outweighed declines in meats, cereal grains and sugar. The November index increased 5.7% from last year to the highest level since April 2023. Compared to year-ago, prices rose 5.8% for meat, 20.1% for dairy and 32.2% for vegoils, while values fell 7.9% for cereal grains and 21.7% for sugar.
Trump picks Perdue as ambassador to China... President-elect Donald Trump chose former Senator David Perdue to be ambassador to China, tapping a former politician with business experience to help steer relations with Beijing amid high tensions and great uncertainty. Perdue, a Republican from Georgia who served in the Senate from 2015-2021, previously lived in Hong Kong during a 40-year career as a business executive. “He will be instrumental in implementing my strategy to maintain Peace in the region, and a productive working relationship with China’s leaders,” Trump said in a post on his social media platform Truth Social.
China’s Xinjiang Cotton Association calls for restored cotton use... China’s Xinjiang Cotton Association said that international brands should give “full respect and trust” to Xinjiang cotton, calling on brands like Uniqlo to resume the use of cotton from China’s far western territory of Xinjiang to help maintain the “healthy and stable development of the global cotton textile industry.” In a British Broadcasting Corporation interview last week, the CEO of Fast Retailing, Uniqlo’s parent company, said the fashion chain does not use Xinjiang cotton in its products. Other global companies have been caught up in controversy relating to Xinjiang. The U.S. has restricted trade on goods made in Xinjiang on concerns over forced labor, a claim disputed by Beijing.
EPA proposes changes to 2024 cellulosic biofuel requirements... EPA released a proposed rule to partially waive the 2024 cellulosic biofuel volume requirements under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) due to insufficient production and a carryover deficit from 2023. Under the proposed rule, required credits tracking 2024 cellulosic biofuel consumption would be pared from 1.09 billion to 0.88 billion gallons. The plan reduces the 2024 target by 0.21 billion Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs). The EPA proposal also would extend compliance reporting deadlines under the RFS that compels the use of biofuels. Compliance deadlines for 2024 are also proposed to extend beyond March 31, 2025, with new provisions for future deadline adjustments. However, the agency is not proposing to lower other targets under the RFS program. A hearing is scheduled for Dec. 20 and public comments on the proposal are due by Jan. 21, 2025. Finalizing the rule will mark one of the first biofuel decisions for the Trump administration.
Euro zone Q3 GDP rises 0.4%... The euro zone economy expanded 0.4% in the third quarter, the strongest quarterly growth rate in two years. Among the bloc’s largest economies, Germany expanded 0.1%, below 0.2% in the prior estimates, but surprisingly avoided a recession. GDP in France expanded 0.4% and the Spanish economy grew 0.8%, while Italy stalled and the Netherlands declined 0.8%. On an annual basis, euro zone GDP expanded 0.9%, the best performance since the first quarter of 2023.
Light cash trade at steady/higher prices... Cash cattle activity remained light on Thursday, with limited trade taking place at steady to $2.00 higher prices, as most feedlots held out for even stronger bids. But given the poor close in cattle futures on Thursday and negative margins, packers may be reluctant to get too aggressive with cash bids.
Pork cutout marks new seasonal low... The pork cutout fell 96 cents to $88.64 on Thursday, as sharp losses in ribs, bellies and hams offset strength in other cuts. That’s the lowest price since Feb. 14. The CME lean hog index is down 15 cents to $83.93 as of Dec. 4, though that’s still 9 cents above the October low.
Overnight demand news... Exporters reported no tenders or sales.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 7:30 a.m. Employment Situation — BLS
- 11:00 a.m. Livestock and Meat International Trade Data — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Peanut Prices — NASS
- 2:30 p.m. Commitments of Traders — CFTC