Good morning!
Grains mostly firmer this morning... Soybeans and wheat are firmer this morning, while corn is trading near its overnight highs. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading fractionally lower, soybeans are fractionally higher, winter wheat markets are mostly 4 cents higher and spring wheat is 5 to 7 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is down around 180 points and front-month crude oil futures are modestly firmer this morning.
Weekly Export Sales Report out this morning... For the week ended Nov. 28, traders expect:
| 2024-25 expectations (in MT) | Last week (in MT) | |
| Corn | 750,000-1,500,000 | 1,062,888 |
| Wheat | 250,000-550,000 | 366,804 |
| Soybeans | 1,100,000-2,500,000 | 2,490,461 |
| Soymeal | 150,000-550,000 | 487,325 |
| Soyoil | 10,000-60,000 | 124,792 |
Chinese buyers slash Canadian canola imports on fears of anti-dumping duty... Chinese importers are scaling back purchases of Canadian canola with shipments from December likely to plunge as most buyers are reluctant to sign new deals for fear that Beijing could impose retaliatory anti-dumping duties, Reuters reported. Chinese buyers have been shipping Canadian canola at a record pace since September to take delivery of cargoes contracted before Beijing unveiled an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian imports of the oilseed, in retaliation to Ottawa’s tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles. China has enough canola stocks to last until February, traders said, with buyers likely to switch to other origins, including Australia, in 2025. China also has plentiful supplies of soybeans to bridge any shortfall in availability of canola.
China’s new port has Peru targeting a tripling of ag exports by 2040... Peru is betting that new trade links with China and local tax breaks can take its booming agribusiness industry to the next level, almost tripling exports over the next decade and a half. Agriculture Minister Angel Manero is targeting $30 billion in exports by 2040, primarily fruit shipments, compared with an estimated $12 billion this year. Peru has become a fruit-growing powerhouse in recent years and is now the top exporter of blueberries and table grapes and No. 2 in avocados. Chinese President Xi Jinping was in Peru last month to officially open the $1.3 billion Chancay port. By reducing travel times, the Chinese-operated facility will make perishable goods more accessible to Asian markets.
EU nears trade deal with Mercosur bloc... European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is set to arrive in Uruguay to attend the Mercosur summit as the bloc aims to conclude a long-sought trade deal with key Latin American nations. Von der Leyen’s decision to attend the summit in Montevideo, which opens Thursday, is a sign that negotiators see a deal on the pact as likely, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. The trade deal would reduce tariffs for most European Union exports to some of the largest Latin American economies, while opening the European market more to imports including agricultural products. It would also strengthen the European footprint in a region where China has made inroads in recent years.
CBO projects economic impact of expiring Trump tax cuts... The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released projections detailing the economic impact of key provisions from the 2017 Trump tax cuts set to expire at the end of 2025 (link), alongside the phase-out of full expensing for equipment and machinery (link). Of note: OMB Director Phillip Swagel noted in a blog post that unexpectedly high federal revenue since the tax cuts has been driven by inflation, new tariffs and increased economic activity. In Congress, House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) supports Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo’s (R-Idaho) stance to treat extending these tax cuts as cost-free when calculating the cost of a tax bill, citing current law as justification. Any new tax cuts would be scored differently, with some wants to have budget offsets for any such additional tax cuts.
Nationwide injunction halts Corporate Transparency Act enforcement... The U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas has issued a nationwide preliminary injunction blocking enforcement of the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA), set to take effect Jan. 1, 2025. The law mandates certain small businesses to disclose beneficial ownership information to the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), with penalties for non-compliance including daily fines and prison time. Organizations like the NCBA have advocated against the law, urging cattle producers and small businesses to prepare while continuing efforts to repeal or delay enforcement. Businesses are advised to consult legal and financial professionals regarding potential compliance obligations.
APHIS responds to court overturning rule on GE crops... USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) acknowledged a U.S. District Court ruling that vacates its May 2020 final rule on genetically engineered (GE) crops. APHIS confirmed that permits and reviews issued before Dec. 2, 2024, remain valid. The agency is evaluating its next steps and plans to update stakeholders soon, referencing recent modifications related to GE organism movement announced on Nov. 13.
OPEC+ delays oil output hike... OPEC+ has an agreement in principle to postpone the planned January production increase, with discussions continuing about the duration of the delay, delegates told Bloomberg. Ministers from the group will meet online later today to finalize details of the accord, with the main focus on a delay of three months, delegates said. According to a delegates, the group will now start the production increase in April 2025, with a slower unwinding of the cuts that is expected to finish in September 2026. This decision reflects OPEC+’s ongoing efforts to manage global oil supply and support crude prices.
Slow developing cash cattle negotiations... Feedlots are pricing cattle higher this week, while packers are in no hurry to actively bid for supplies given negative margins and recent strong purchases. It appears active cash cattle trade will likely be pushed to Friday, with cash sources split on the eventual direction of this week’s trade.
Cash hog index pauses price slide... The CME lean hog index is up a penny to $84.01 as of Dec. 3, pausing the three-week price slide. The pork cutout slipped a penny to $89.60 on Wednesday. Seasonally, the cash index and pork cutout could face more pressure, though slaughter numbers have been running well under levels implied by USDA’s September Hogs & Pigs Report, limiting normal fourth-quarter price weakness.
Overnight demand news... Japan purchased 111,405 MT of milling wheat via its weekly tender, including 56,945 MT U.S., 22,190 MT Canadian and 32,270 MT Australian.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
· 7:30 a.m. Weekly Export Sales — FAS