Good morning!
Grains firmer to open the week... Corn, soybeans and wheat firmed during the overnight session, with March corn reaching the highest level since June 26. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans are 4 to 6 cents higher and wheat is mostly 2 to 3 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is around 140 points lower and front-month crude oil futures are about 30 cents firmer.
Brazil to remain wet, Argentina mostly dry... Brazil will be quite wet from eastern Mato Grosso, Goias and parts of Tocantins to Minas Gerais and northern Sao Paulo during the next week to 10 days, according to World Weather Inc. Central and east-central Argentina, portions of Uruguay, western Rio Grande do Sul and southwestern Paraguay will be dry or mostly dry for at least 10 days and probably two weeks.
Argentine farmers to plant more corn, fewer soybeans than previously expected... Argentine farmers are expected to plant 6.6 million hectares of corn this year, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, up 300,000 hectares from its prior forecast. Soybean planted area was reduced 200,000 hectares from the exchange’s prior forecast.
Illinois announces investment in SAF facility... Illinois Governor JB Pritzker announced an $820 million investment by Avina Clean Hydrogen in Southwest Illinois to establish a state-of-the-art facility producing sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The project, in collaboration with the Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity (DCEO), aims to strengthen Illinois’ clean energy economy, create 1,150 jobs and reduce aviation carbon emissions by up to 25 MMT annually. The facility will leverage existing infrastructure to supply ASTM-certified fuel to major Midwest airports, aligning with Illinois’ 2024 Economic Growth Plan and boosting the state’s leadership in clean energy and advanced manufacturing.
Russia approves grain intervention sales... The Russian government approved the sale of up to 3 MMT of wheat, rye and barley from federal intervention fund reserves in 2025, Interfax news agency reported. Grain purchased during interventions in 2014-2016 and 2022-2024 will be sold at exchange auctions. Grain intervention sales are intended to help stabilize domestic food prices.
Russia trims wheat export tax... Russia’s tax on wheat exports will decline to 4,346.1 rubles ($40.45) per metric ton for Jan. 13-14, down from 4,768.7 rubles ($44.38) from Dec. 25-Jan. 12. The export tax has still surged 379% since mid-September, as Russia’s ag ministry tries to slow shipments.
China announces tariffs adjustments for 2025... China’s finance ministry announced adjustments to various import tariff categories, effective Jan. 1, aimed at increasing imports of high-quality products, expanding domestic demand and promoting high-level purchases. Provisional import tariffs below the most-favored-nation rates will be applied to 935 items, the ministry said. Import tariffs will be reduced on ethane and certain recycled copper and aluminum raw materials to advance green and low-carbon development. Tariffs on commodities including molasses and sugar-containing pre-mixed powders will increase but be reduced on items such as cyclic olefin polymers, ethylene-vinyl alcohol copolymers and automatic transmissions for special-purpose vehicles such as fire trucks and repair vehicles. Import tariffs will also be reduced on items such as sodium zirconium cyclosilicate, viral vectors for CAR-T tumor therapy, and nickel-titanium alloy wires for surgical implants.
China urges more aid for people in need as economic woes persist... The Chinese government urged local officials to provide more financial relief or step up one-time allowances to people in need ahead of major holidays over the next month, as the country’s economic difficulties are set to extend into 2025. Ahead of New Year’s Day and the Lunar New Year in late January, local governments with financial capacity are encouraged to distribute relief funds or step up one-time allowances to those in need. China issued a similar call in late September ahead of a major holiday for one-off assistance to the extremely poor, orphans and those in difficulty.
The week ahead in Washington... The new Congress begins on Friday, Jan. 3. The ongoing struggle among House Republicans over government funding and debt ceiling issues may jeopardize Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) ability to secure the gavel ahead of the Jan. 6 certification of Donald Trump’s presidential victory. Key concerns include whether a prolonged speaker election could delay critical steps in the legislative process. Procedural experts suggest that without a speaker, the House clerk might swear in members or elect a temporary presiding officer to enable the joint session. It will be a relatively quiet week in terms of economic data. USDA will release grain and soy crush data for November on Thursday. Weekly export sales data will be published on Friday due to the midweek New Year’s holiday.
FDA weighs ban on controversial red dye No. 3... FDA is nearing a decision on banning red dye No. 3, a synthetic additive linked to cancer in animals and used in various foods like candy, drinks and fruit cocktails. While banned in cosmetics since 1990, the dye remains approved for food use, prompting criticism from food safety advocates. They argue it poses potential health risks and violates federal law prohibiting carcinogenic substances in food. Despite manufacturers defending its safety and economic value, growing pressure from lawmakers, consumer groups and new state bans — such as California’s recent legislation — has intensified calls for action. FDA plans to announce its decision in the coming weeks, which could significantly impact food manufacturing standards.
Cash cattle, boxed beef prices firm... Cash cattle traded at mostly $1.00 higher prices last Friday, suggesting the string of cash cattle strength will extend to six straight weeks when official data is released later this morning. Wholesale beef prices firmed $1.99 for Choice to $322.38 and $2.36 for Select to $291.13. That was the highest level for Choice beef since Oct. 28.
Cash hog index, pork cutout slip... The CME lean hog index is down 25 cents to $84.85 as of Dec. 26, snapping a six-day string of gains. The pork cutout dropped 62 cents last Friday to $95.07, as declines in loins, butts and picnics offset gains in other cuts.
Weekend demand news... Exporters reported no tenders or sales.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 10:00 a.m. Weekly Export Inspections — AMS
- 2:00 p.m. Egg Products — NASS