Good morning!
Quiet overnight grain trade... Corn, soybeans and wheat held in tight trading ranges during a quiet overnight session. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn is trading unchanged to fractionally higher, soybeans are 3 to 5 cents higher, SRW wheat is narrowly mixed, HRW wheat is around a penny higher and HRS wheat is mostly 2 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is around 100 points higher and front-month crude oil futures are about 50 cents higher.
Christmas holiday schedule... Grain and livestock markets trade abbreviated sessions today, closing at 12:05 and 12:15 CT, respectively. All markets and government offices are closed on Wednesday, Dec. 25, for Christmas. There will be no Pro Farmer updates on Wednesday. Grain and livestock markets will reopen at 8:30 a.m. CT on Thursday, Dec. 26. Pro Farmer wishes you a blessed Christmas.
Cordonnier raises Brazilian soybean crop forecast... Weather remains favorable for Brazil’s soybean crop and early yields are strong, causing South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier to raise his Brazilian soybean production forecast by 1 MMT to 171 MMT. He maintains a neutral to higher bias toward the soybean crop. Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn crop peg at 125 MMT with a neutral bias. For Argentina, Cordonnier left his production estimates at 55 MMT for soybeans and 49 MMT for corn with a neutral to lower bias toward both crops.
Securing Chinese market for winter wheat a priority for Russia in 2025... Securing access for Russia’s winter wheat and barley to the Chinese market remains a priority for the coming year, Russia’s agricultural watchdog said. China has so far only allowed spring wheat imports from Russia. Winter wheat, which has higher yields and is more profitable for farmers, accounts for about 90% of Russia’s total wheat harvest. The watchdog said it would also work to gain access to the Chinese market for Russian wheat bran, food-grade soybean meal, beet pulp with added molasses, red beans, mung beans, amaranth, flax cake, millet, mustard and malt.
China plans to boost cereal grain consumption... China’s 2024-2035 action plan, jointly issued by the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration and other government departments, plan to boost consumption of cereal grains and develop the industry through higher production standards, research and international cooperation as part of efforts to enhance food security. The plan also encourages companies and private capital to establish development funds to support the whole grain industry. China said it would “vigorously promote” the health benefits of consuming cereal grains and recommend cereal grain foods in nutritional dietary guidance, particularly in government offices, campuses and military camps.
China plans record public spending in 2025 to boost economy... China’s ministry of finance announced plans to ramp up public spending in 2025, prioritizing consumption growth to counter economic challenges, including impending U.S. tariffs. Following a two-day fiscal work conference, officials revealed intentions to issue a record 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds. The funds will support consumption subsidies, technological advancements, manufacturing upgrades and bolster capital for state banks, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the situation. This marks a significant push for fiscal stimulus in the world’s second-largest economy.
CTA reporting requirements reinstated... The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals has reinstated the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) reporting requirements, overturning a nationwide injunction. This decision, issued on Dec. 23, has critical implications for small businesses across the United States. The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN.gov) in charge of this reporting announced that you now have until Jan. 13, 2025, to file these reports. Companies must report details about beneficial owners, including names, addresses, and identification numbers. The court suggested the government is likely to succeed in defending CTA’s constitutionality.
Mildly negative H&P Report... USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report estimated the Dec. 1 U.S. hog herd at 75.845 million head, up 384,000 head (0.5%) from last year and 309,000 head more than the average pre-report estimate implied. The breeding herd at 6.004 million head was virtually unchanged. The market hog inventory of 69.841 million head increased 378,000 head (0.5%) from last year. Data implies slaughter will run slightly below year-ago through winter and then expand to around 1% above last year’s levels from spring into early summer. Producers indicated they intend to farrow about the same number of sows as year-ago through winter and then expand by 1.4% during spring. If the litter size continues to run at a record clip, the winter and spring pig crops will top last year’s levels by 1% to 3%.
Cash cattle top may be near... Cash cattle averaged $194.73 last week, up 42 cents and the fifth straight weekly gain. While packers purchased less than 50,000 head, they have holiday-shortened slaughters the next two weeks and will have fresh contracted supplies available with the flip of the calendar. Given deeply negative margins, it’s unlikely packers will aggressively bid up for cattle this week, though it’s also unlikely feedlots will actively move cattle at lower prices.
Building signs of a seasonal bottom for cash hogs... The CME lean hog index is up another 40 cents to $84.75 as of Dec. 20, marking gains in six of the last eight days. During that span, the index has risen $1.42 from what appears like it will be the seasonal low on Dec. 9.
DOC issues antidumping and countervailing duty orders on shrimp imports... The U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) announced antidumping orders on frozen warmwater shrimp from Indonesia and countervailing duty orders on shrimp from Ecuador, India and Vietnam. These measures follow affirmative determinations by both the DOC and the U.S. International Trade Commission.
Overnight demand news... Exporters reported no tenders or sales.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
· No reports scheduled.