Good morning!
Corn and wheat firmer, soybeans weaker overnight... Corn and wheat futures built on Wednesday’s corrective gains overnight, while the soybean market pulled back. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 2 to 3 cents higher, soybeans are 2 to 4 cents lower and wheat futures are fractionally to 3 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index and front-month crude oil futures are both trading just above unchanged.
Canada prepares to retaliate against U.S. metals tariffs... Canada prepared possible retaliation measures against U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum that President Donald Trump doubled to 50%. Canada is the top exporter of both steel and aluminum to the United States. Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada is prepared to strike back against the U.S. if talks with Washington to remove Trump’s tariffs did not succeed. “We are in intensive negotiations with the Americans, and, in parallel, preparing reprisals if those negotiations do not succeed,” Carney told the House of Commons. Canada’s labor union Unifor called for retaliatory tariffs, while Ontario Premier Doug Ford urged Carney not to “sit back and let President Trump steamroll us.”
Mexico seeking exclusion from ‘unjust’ and ‘legally baseless’ U.S. metals tariff hike... Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Wednesday denounced Trump’s new 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports as “unjust,” “unsustainable” and lacking any legal basis, warning it will increase costs and hurt jobs across North America. Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard echoed her criticism and said Mexico would seek an exclusion from the tariff during his Friday meeting with U.S. officials in Washington. Failing that, Mexico will announce its response next week—though Sheinbaum emphasized it won’t be an “eye for an eye” retaliation. Sheinbaum and Ebrard both questioned the tariff’s legality under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, arguing that such trade barriers contradict the spirit of regional cooperation.
Weekly Export Sales Report out this morning... For the week ended May 29, traders expect:
| 2024-25 expectations (in MT) | 2024-25 last week | 2025-26 expectations (in MT) | 2025-26 last week | |
| Corn | 775,000-1,400,000 | 916,712 | 20,000-250,000 | 31,000 |
| Wheat | (200,000)-100,000 | (128,797) | 300,000-800,000 | 711,368 |
| Soybeans | 100,000-500,000 | 146,034 | 0-100,000 | 32,800 |
| Soymeal | 200,000-500,000 | 424,649 | 0-200,000 | 178,520 |
| Soyoil | 5,000-25,000 | 19,542 | 0-10,000 | 0 |
China warns of extreme weather in northern areas during summer... Extreme storms and floods are likely to be more frequent and intense than normal, state broadcaster CCTV reported, citing the water resources ministry. Floods in northern China from June to August are likely to be more severe this year, presenting a threat to the country’s key grain producing region.
Fed Beige Book flags agricultural strain... The Federal Reserve on Wednesday released its latest Beige Book, offering a sobering snapshot of the U.S. economy — particularly the farm sector. The national summary stated that “economic activity has declined slightly since the previous report,” reflecting a broad slowdown across several industries. Agriculture emerged as a notable area of concern. Six of the twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks included updates on agricultural conditions, with most describing weakening conditions tied to low commodity prices, persistent drought and falling demand from overseas buyers. The report underscores growing unease in rural America, as farmers grapple with volatile markets, tightening credit conditions and policy uncertainty related to trade and tariffs.
FDA chief criticized over seed oil claims... FDA Commissioner Martin Makary is facing backlash from food and agriculture industry groups following remarks he made Wednesday on Fox News labeling seed oils as “pro-inflammatory” and claiming they are “not naturally occurring.” Makary specifically targeted infant formula, stating it is “nearly impossible” to find a product free of seed oils. His comments came just hours before an FDA expert panel convened to discuss safety concerns surrounding infant formula, including the presence of heavy metals and seed oil content. In response, the National Oilseed Processors Association and the Corn Refiners Association issued a joint statement condemning Makary’s comments as “incorrect and misleading: Seed oils have been used in the global food supply for decades and are proven to be safe and nutritious ingredients for a variety of products,” the statement read. “Remarks like those made today create unwarranted anxiety about the food supply and about safe and nutritious formula that benefits millions of infants globally.” The exchange highlights growing tension over the role of highly processed oils in the American diet — especially in sensitive products like infant nutrition — as policymakers and scientists evaluate new guidance on food safety, labeling and health impacts.
Global fossil fuel investment set to drop for first time since pandemic... Global spending on fossil fuels is expected to decline in 2025 for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The downturn is primarily driven by a pullback in oil sector investments, with companies reassessing drilling and infrastructure projects amid weaker prices and growing market uncertainty. IEA’s latest outlook indicates that total investment in oil, gas and coal will fall below $1 trillion for the year — down from a recent high of $1.07 trillion in 2024. The most significant cuts are coming from the upstream oil industry, where several multinational producers have either delayed or shelved capital expenditures due to falling profit margins and rising pressure from shareholders on climate commitments. Natural gas investments are expected to remain relatively stable, buoyed by long-term LNG projects, while coal spending is projected to plateau, particularly in China and India. The slowdown comes amid rising global momentum for clean energy transitions, but IEA said fossil fuels still receive twice the level of investment compared to renewables in many developing economies.
Brazil says HPAI under control... Brazil’s Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro said on Wednesday there were strong indications the world’s biggest chicken exporter had efficiently contained a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak. Since the outbreak on a commercial farm in Rio Grande do Sul in mid-May, chicken prices in Brazil have fallen around 7%, Favaro said, as dozens of trading partners enacted various bans on Brazilian poultry exports. Countries including China, South Korea and the European Union were in talks with Brazil to ease their bans, Favaro said, adding that some partners were expected to relax restrictions before the 28-day observation period is up later this month – provided no other commercial-farm outbreaks occur.
Higher cash cattle trade surfaces... Cash cattle started trading at higher prices in the Southern Plains on Wednesday. This followed some light trade at steady/lower prices in the far northern market earlier this week. A wide range of prices is likely again this week given differences in supplies and packer needs, though it appears the cash market will score another all-time high for a seventh consecutive week.
Cash hog fundamentals remain supportive... The CME lean hog index is up another 41 cents to $96.75 as of June 3. Pork cutout firmed 51 cents to $106.62 on Wednesday. The combination of firming cash fundamentals and selling in June lean hog futures the past three days narrowed the premium the lead-month contract holds to the cash index to $3.225.
Overnight demand news... South Korea purchased 259,000 MT of corn – 60,000 MT to be source from the U.S., 67,000 MT to be sourced from the U.S., South American or South African and 132,000 MT to be sourced from South American or South African.
Today’s reports
- 7:30 a.m. Weekly Export Sales — FAS
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. Ag Trade Data — FAS
- 2:00 p.m. Dairy Products — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Slaughter Weekly — NASS