Good morning!
Light grain trade overnight... Corn, soybeans and wheat held in relatively tight ranges during a lightly traded overnight session. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading a penny lower, soybeans are fractionally lower to a penny higher and wheat futures are mostly 2 to 5 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is up around 125 points and front-month crude oil futures are about 90 cents higher.
Happy Easter from Pro Farmer... Grain and livestock markets will observe normal trading hours today but are closed for Good Friday. As a result, there will be no Pro Farmer reports on Friday. Government offices are open Friday, though there are no USDA reports scheduled. Pro Farmer wishes you a blessed Easter.
Trump hails ‘big progress’ in Japan trade talks... President Donald Trump touted “big progress” in trade talks with Japan on Wednesday, in one of the first rounds of face-to-face negotiations since his barrage of tariffs on U.S. trading partners but gave no details of the discussions. Ryosei Akazawa, a close confidant of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba who serves in the relatively junior cabinet position of economic revitalization minister, gave few details of Wednesday’s talks but said the parties had agreed to hold a second meeting later this month and that Trump had said getting a deal with Japan was a “top priority.” Exchange rates, which the Trump administration has said Japan and others manipulate to get a trade advantage, were not part of the talks, Akazawa added. Meanwhile, Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said the country is “deeply concerned” about global economic fallout from U.S. tariffs. Kato plans to go to Washington next week for meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the Group of 20. He is also expected to meet separately with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
U.S, China at impasse over who should start trade talks... China’s commerce ministry urged the U.S. to stop putting “extreme pressure” on China and demanded respect in any trade talks, but the two sides remained at an impasse over who should start those talks. The commerce ministry has criticized U.S. tariffs, but unlike other countries, Beijing has taken a hardline approach, upping its own levies on U.S. goods in response and has not sought talks. China will pay no attention if the U.S. continues to play the “tariff numbers game,” China’s foreign ministry said.
China to work with EU to safeguard rules-based multilateral trading system... China is ready to work with the European Union (EU) to strengthen dialogue and communication, expand mutual cooperation and jointly safeguard the rules-based multilateral trading system with the World Trade Organization (WTO) at its core, China’s commerce ministry said. Both sides are advocates of economic globalization and trade liberalization, and firm defenders and supporters of WTO. China is willing to work with the EU to maintain the stability of global industrial and supply chains and inject more certainty and positive energy into the world economy through the independence and stability of China/EU economic and trade relations, the ministry said.
Weekly Export Sales Report out this morning... For the week ended April 10, traders expect:
| 2024-25 expectations (in MT) | Last week (in MT) | |
| Corn | 600,000-1,800,000 | 785,583 |
| Wheat | (100,000)-200,000 | 107,280 |
| Soybeans | 100,000-800,000 | 172,324 |
| Soymeal | 145,000-400,000 | 275,955 |
| Soyoil | 0-40,000 | 20,195 |
SovEcon raises Russian wheat production forecast... SovEcon raised its Russian wheat production forecast 1.1 MMT to 79.7 MMT. Winter wheat production was increased 1.5 MMT to 52.2 MMT, while the outlook for spring wheat was lowered 500,000 MT.
USTR to announce revised port fees for Chinese-built ships... The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) will release details on proposed port fees for operators of Chinese-built ships at U.S. ports. This follows extensive public feedback and revisions to the original plan, which included fees of up to $1.5 million per port call. A final plan will likely soften the original proposal, potentially basing fees on vessel tonnage or cargo type and exempting certain exporters. A mid-May hearing will refine specifics, with rollout expected by mid-November. USTR confirmed the plan will not impose cumulative penalties and aims to avoid undue disruption to trade. Full determination and a phased implementation timeline will be published today.
Court orders Trump administration to release frozen IRA funds... A federal court has ordered the Trump administration to unfreeze billions in Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Infrastructure Act funds across multiple agencies, including the Departments of Energy (DOE), Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Interior, USDA and EPA. Court filings show DOE, HUD, and EPA have already notified grantees that funding is restored. While USDA and Interior have yet to issue formal notices, they are in the process of doing so. Despite expressing strong disagreement with the ruling, the administration has directed agencies not to restrict funds, to resume paused awards and to proceed with funding decisions under their existing statutory authority.
Bunge exits U.S. corn milling with sale to Grain Craft in strategic refocus... Bunge Global SA has signed definitive agreements to divest its North American dry corn and corn masa milling operations to Grain Craft, marking a strategic exit from a business it has operated since 1979. The deal includes seven facilities across six U.S. states and Mexico. Financial terms were not disclosed, and the transaction awaits regulatory approval. The move allows Bunge to concentrate on its core global agribusiness operations — particularly oilseeds, grains and food ingredients — while Grain Craft significantly expands its footprint into corn-based milling. Company executives on both sides described the deal as a major strategic milestone aligned with future growth priorities.
Placements expected to rise in Cattle on Feed Report... Analysts polled by Urner Barry expect USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report this afternoon to show the April 1 feedlot inventory declined 1.7% from year-ago. A focal point will be placements, which are expected to have risen 3.7% from year-ago levels, due largely to the small number of cattle moved into feedlots in March 2024. While the U.S. reopened the border to Mexican cattle imports earlier this year, resumption of trade has been gradual. Marketings are anticipated to have increased 0.7%.
Some cash cattle optimism surfaces... Cash cattle activity remained at a virtual standstill on Wednesday. Given strong gains in futures, some cash sources now expect steady/firmer prices this week. Those feeling cash prices will be steady at best believe packers will wait until after the Easter weekend to reassess near-term needs given negative cutting margins.
Cash hog slide continues... The CME lean hog index is down another 28 cents to $85.09 as of April 15. After Wednesday’s strong gains, premiums in futures extended to $5.06 for May futures and $12.86 for June hogs, signaling traders expect the recent cash weakness to end soon.
Overnight demand news... Algeria purchased between 600,000 and 630,000 MT of milling wheat, most of which is likely to be sourced from the Black Sea region, especially Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria.
Today’s reports
- 7:30 a.m. Weekly Export Sales — FAS
- 2:00 p.m. Cattle on Feed — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. National Hemp Report — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Peanut Prices — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Potato Stocks — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Slaughter Weekly — NASS