Good morning!
Corn and beans lower, wheat mostly firmer overnight... Corn and soybeans faced modest followthrough selling overnight, while wheat futures favored the upside. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 4 cents lower, soybeans are 3 to 8 cents lower, SRW wheat is around a penny lower, HRW wheat is 2 to 4 cents higher and HRS wheat is 3 to 6 cents higher. Front-month crude oil futures and the U.S. dollar index are both trading just above unchanged.
Good Friday schedule; Happy Easter from Pro Farmer... Grain and livestock markets will trade normal hours today. Markets are closed for Good Friday, though government offices are open. Due to the market closure, there will be no Pro Farmer market reports on Friday. Grain markets reopen with overnight trade at 7:00 p.m. CT on Sunday, April 9. Livestock markets will resume trading at 8:30 a.m. CT on Monday, April 10. Pro Farmer wishes everyone a blessed Easter.
Cargill explains Russian grain market ‘departure’... Cargill Inc., the world’s largest grain trader, was very careful explaining its departure from the Russian grain market it announced last week. In a statement, the company said that by July, it would end its Russian grain “elevation” activities — trading jargon for the business of buying crops from local farmers, storing them in silos and using an export terminal to “elevate” the grain from the ground into a ship. But Cargill said it “intends to continue shipping grain from Russia to destination markets in line with our purpose to nourish the world.”
Weekly Export Sales Report out this morning... For the week ended March 30, traders expect:
| 2022-23 expectations (in MT) | 2022-23 last week | 2023-24 expectations (in MT) | 2023-24 last week |
Corn | 800,000-1,500,000 | 1,036,432 | 0-250,000 | 21,800 |
Wheat | 100,000-350,000 | 151,749 | 0-250,000 | 37,400 |
Soybeans | 200,000-600,000 | 348,177 | 0-200,000 | 3,900 |
Soymeal | 125,000-450,000 | 377,938 | 0-75,000 | 10,000 |
Soyoil | 0-20,000 | 1,964 | 0-10,000 | 0 |
China will sell more wheat, rice reserves... China will auction 40,000 MT of state-owned wheat reserves and 900,000 MT of rice from government stockpiles next week.
Senate Ag panel officially asks for more funding for farm bill... In a letter to budget leaders the Senate Ag panel said, “The Committee recently completed a series of hearings on the 12 titles of the Farm Bill and through this process it became clear that additional financial resources will be necessary to strengthen our farm and food safety nets. We ask you to recognize that since 2018, the Federal Government has approved more than $90 billion in ad hoc assistance for farmers and ranchers in response to Chinese tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports, the pandemic, and increasingly unpredictable climate-related disasters. A commitment to additional financial resources for the farm bill will help to transition our farm and food supplies away from ad hoc support. The Committee also respectfully requests the inclusion of a reserve fund in the FY24 budget resolution to provide budget flexibility should our spending authority be increased.” Click here for more details.
Senate Ag committee gearing up farm bill process after recess... The letter from the Ag panel comes as Politico is reporting the committee plans to gear up action after the Easter break on the farm bill, with a tentative schedule of five hearings by panel subcommittees: April 19 — a nutrition focus by the Nutrition, Specialty Crops, Organics and Research Subcommittee; April 20 — a conservation focus by the Conservation, Climate, Forestry and Natural Resources Subcommittee; April 27 — a crop insurance and farm credit focus by the Commodities, Risk Management and Trade Subcommittee; May 2 — a commodity groups focus by the Commodities, Risk Management and Trade Subcommittee; and May 17 — a broadband focus by the Rural Development and Energy Subcommittee.
McCarthy met with Taiwan’s president... House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) met with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in California yesterday, where the Republican leader brushed aside stern warnings from China that the meeting not be held, accusing the U.S. and Taiwan of “serious wrongdoing.” McCarthy repeatedly signaled lawmakers in both parties are unified in their desire to continue fostering a relationship with Taiwan. Several Chinese ministries released coordinated statements condemning the meeting. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the U.S. had ignored “repeated warnings” against allowing Tsai to visit and promised “resolute and forceful measures to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity in response to the serious wrongdoing of U.S./Taiwan colluding together.”
Gas prices at 5-month high... National average gas prices reached a five-month high Wednesday, surpassing $3.50 per gallon for the first time since November. The jump comes on the heels of the OPEC+ decision to cut oil production.
Slowdown expected in jobs growth last month... Economist polled by Reuters expect the Labor Department on Friday to report non-farm payrolls increased 240,000 in March, which would be down from a gain of 311,000 the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.6%.
Cash cattle trade higher... Cash cattle trade started around $170 in the Southern Plains and as high as $178 in the northern market on Wednesday – up sharply from last week in both regions. April live cattle futures finished yesterday basically in line with last week’s average cash price, so the strong cash trade should be supportive. The question is how aggressively traders want to push long positions and whether some profit-taking develops ahead of the extended weekend.
Bigger drop in cash hog index... The CME lean hog index extended its price slide for a 13th consecutive day, falling another 76 cents to $73.91 (as of April 4). April lean hog futures finished Wednesday 51 cents below that level. The premium in June hogs is now less than $15.00, though that signals traders anticipate a stronger-than-normal seasonal rally once the cash market finds its secondary low. The five-year average rise in the cash index from now until mid-June is just under $10.00.
Overnight demand news... Japan purchased 78,732 MT of milling wheat in its weekly tender, including 27,830 MT U.S., 29,142 MT Canadian and 21,760 MT Australian. Egypt tendered to buy an unspecified amount of wheat from multiple origins.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 7:30 a.m. Weekly Export Sales — FAS
- 10:00 a.m. Livestock and Meat International Trade Data — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Peanut Prices — NASS