Fine tuning expected in Wednesday’s November crop reports

USDA is expected to make minor adjustments to its U.S. crop estimates and balance sheets, though bigger changes are possible for global wheat production.

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November 07, 2022 08:36 AM

USDA is expected to make modest revisions to its corn and soybean crop estimates in the Nov. 9 Crop Production Report. Relatively modest shifts are also expected to the 2022-23 U.S. balance sheets, with ending stocks for corn, soybeans and wheat all anticipated to increase. The biggest movement is likely to come in global wheat crop estimates. The following estimates are from Reuters; cotton from Bloomberg.

Expectations for 2022 U.S. Production
Corn
	Production (bil. bu.)	Yield (bu. per acre)	Harvested acres (mil.)
Average est.	13.887	171.9	NA
Range	13.766 - 14.109	171.0 – 174.5	NA
USDA October	13.895	171.9	80.844

Soybeans
	Production (bil. bu.)	Yield (bu. per acre)	Harvested acres (mil.)
Average est.	4.315	49.8	NA
Range	4.261 - 4.413	49.2 – 50.9	NA
USDA October	4.313	49.8	86.631

Cotton
	Production (mil. bales)	Yield (lbs. per acre)	Harvested acres (mil.)
Average est.	13.62	NA	NA
Range	13.42 – 13.81	NA	NA
USDA October	13.812	842	7.876

Expectations for U.S. Carryover
Corn – billion bushels
	2022-23
Average est.	1.207
Range	1.050 – 1.390
USDA October	1.172
USDA 2021-22	1.377

Soybeans – million bushels
	2022-23
Average est.	212
Range	185 - 296
USDA October	200
USDA 2021-22	274

Wheat – million bushels
	2022-23
Average est.	578
Range	541 - 606
USDA October	576
USDA 2021-22	600

Cotton – million bales
	2022-23
Average est.	2.73
Range	2.50 – 3.00
USDA October	2.8
USDA 2021-22	3.75

Expectations for Global Carryover
Corn – MMT
	2021-22	2022-23
Average est.	NA	300.63
Range	NA	289.00 – 306.00
USDA October	307.01	301.19

Soybeans – MMT
	2021-22	2022-23
Average est.	NA	100.61
Range	NA	99.40 – 102.20
USDA October	92.38	100.52

Wheat – MMT
	2021-22	2022-23
Average est.	NA	267.49
Range	NA	264.70 – 268.50
USDA October	276.01	266.52

Cotton – million bales
	2021-22	2022-23
Average est.	NA	88.04
Range	NA	87.00 – 90.00
USDA October	85.26	87.87

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