Declining income expectations helped to push farmer sentiment down again in September as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index fell 12 points (12%) to 88. Both of the barometer’s sub-indices, the Index of Current Conditions and the Index of Future Expectations, declined as well. The Current Conditions Index fell 7 points (8.4%) to 76, and the Future Expectations Index dropped 14 points (13%) to 94. These were the weakest barometer and future expectations readings since March 2016, when the farm economy was in the throes of an economic downturn. The current conditions assessment nearly matched that of April 2020, when COVID concerns were top of mind for U.S. farmers.
The barometer noted, “Producers expect markedly worse financial performance for their farms in the upcoming year compared to their expectations at this time last year. Weak farm income expectations combined with lingering interest rate concerns and a pessimistic agricultural export outlook helped push the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index below 100 for the first time since 2020.”