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Cold Storage Report: Record end-of-February beef stocks... USDA’s Cold Storage Report showed beef stocks rose contra-seasonally during February and reached a record for the month. Pork stocks climbed more than normal last month.
Beef stocks totaled 532.5 million lbs. at the end of February, which was a record for the month and a 6.8-million-lb. increase from January, whereas stocks have declined an average of 23.0 million lbs. during the month the previous five years. Beef stocks were 20.0 million lbs. above last year and 43.9 million lbs. above the five-year average.
Pork stocks at 480.4 million lbs. increased 45.9 million lbs. from January, which was greater than the five-year-average gain of 35.0 million lbs. during the month. However, pork inventories were down 3.0 million lbs. from February 2021 and 104.8 million lbs. below the five-year average.
Total poultry stocks at 1.08 billion lbs. rose 63.0 million lbs. from January but were 12.1 million lbs. below last year.
Cattle on Feed Report expected to show record March 1 inventory... USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report Friday afternoon is expected to show March 1 inventories up 1.1% from year-ago levels, which if realized would top last year’s record for the date by 132,000 head. Traders expect February placements to be up 6.1% as dry conditions across the Plains continued to push more animals off pastures and into feedlots, despite high feed prices. But given a smaller calf crop last year, it also implies heifers are being moved into feedlots instead of being held back for breeding. Marketings in February are expected to be up 4.2% from last year, which would also be around 2% higher than February 2020 levels, implying the processing pace has returned to pre-Covid levels.
Cattle on Feed | Avg. Trade Estimate (% of year-ago) | Range | Million head |
On Feed on March 1 | 101.1 | 100.8-101.5 | 12.132 |
Placements in February | 106.1 | 104-109.8 | 1.794 |
Marketings in February | 104.2 | 103.3-104.6 | 1.812 |
Heavy rains might delay Brazil’s later-maturing soybean harvest... Heavy showers and thunderstorms are forecast to track across northern Argentina and southern Brazil through Friday, according to World Weather Inc. The weather forecasting company expects 3.0 to 7.0 inches of rain in western sections of Parana and Santa Catarina into extreme southeastern Paraguay by Saturday morning. The rains might delay late soybean harvest activity and result in some quality issues in areas that experience flash flooding due to the showers. Late season safrinha corn planting may also be impacted in western Parana and neighboring locations, with minor damage possible. The heavy rain will not reach most of the other major safrinha corn areas, and that should leave a mostly good outlook for the second-season corn.
Ukraine grain export estimates slashed... Black Sea ag consultancy APK-Inform slashed its estimate for total Ukrainian grain exports by 29% to 44 million metrics tons (MMT) and now predicts a 3% drop compared to last year. The firm cut Ukraine corn exports to 19.4 MMT, down 36%. Wheat exports were dropped 19% to 18.3 MMT. The firm reduced barley exports by 5% to 5.7 MMT. APK-Inform explained 99% of the grain is shipped via ports and they are closed. Rail capacity to ship grain is much lower than ports. The firm also reported, “virtually no demand from the EU” for Ukraine wheat and barley.
Drought, crop rotation might limit Canadian crop acreage switch... Lingering drought conditions and regular crop rotation might restrict increases in spring wheat and canola acres in Canada this year. LeftField Commodity Research expects a 2% increase in both spring wheat and canola acres. Jonathon Driedger, LeftField Commodity Research vice president, said if moisture conditions do not improve, farmers might shift to crops that can better handle dry conditions.
According to Canada’s drought monitor, Southern Alberta and central Saskatchewan faced “extreme drought” conditions as of Feb. 28. Driedger added some farmers would stay with routine crop rotations.
Statistics Canada will report on farmers’ planting intentions on April 26.
Potash sanctions have little effect on China... U.S. sanctions on Belarus and Russian potash exports have had little impact on China’s supply, according to industry officials. Chinese production of 5.5 million metric tons (MMT) of potash, commercial stocks and strategic reserves mean supplies are relatively normal heading into planting season. Officials are working with experts on possible next steps of getting potash supplies to the country. Industry officials explained that Covid-19 outbreak restrictions have limited fertilizer sales and shipments.
Fed Survey: U.S oil companies to further increase output... Activity by oil and gas companies in Texas, Louisiana and New Mexico rose to its highest levels since the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey started six years ago. The index rose from a 42.6 to a 56 reading for the first quarter of 2022. Some 15% of large firms surveyed said they planned to increase growth by more than 30% this year, while 23% of smaller firms anticipate that level of growth. The survey said oil prices would need to be $80 to$93 per barrel for publicly traded companies to increase production. Respondents predicted U.S. crude will average $93 per barrel and natural gas prices will average $4.57 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) by the end of the year. The oil executives added supply and labor shortages are hindering them from further increasing production.
U.S., Europe to address energy issues on Friday... The U.S. and Europe will address energy issues on Friday, according to U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan. Reuters reported the U.S. would be working on getting more liquified natural gas supplies to Europe in the coming weeks. Since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there have been requ